The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence

A review of recent quantitative studies on the International Monetary Fund reveals that much of the conventional wisdom is incorrect. Recent studies have demonstrated a new degree of methodological rigor, have drawn more heavily upon insights from political science, and have asked a number of new questions. We review studies of participation in IMF programs, design of IMF conditionality, implementation and enforcement of IMF conditions, conventional program effects and catalytic effects. At every stage, we find substantial evidence of the influence of major IMF shareholders, of the Fund’s own organizational imperatives, and of domestic politics within borrowing countries. We conclude that very little is known with certainty about the effects of IMF lending, but that a great deal has been learned about the mechanics of IMF programs that will have to be taken into account in order to obtain unbiased estimates of those effects.

Reformfähigkeit messen? Konzeptionelle Überlegungen zu einem Reformfähigkeitsindex für OECD-Staaten

In the present article, I propose to determine reform capacity based upon policy outcomes and the governing performance of executives. Both components shall be measured through expert assessments and quantitative data for the 30 OECD member states in order to construct an index of reform capacity. The concepts underpinning the index are explained and compared with existing approaches of performance and governance measurement. Criteria are developed to assess the strategic capacity of governments and the accountability-generating functions of political actors surrounding the government. The envisaged measurement and aggregation methods are described and the potential of the proposed approach is discussed.     

Back to the Archives? A Critique of the Danish Part of the Manifesto Dataset

The dataset of the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) is one the best known and often used datasets in comparative studies of Western Europe. However, the Danish part of the data is very problematic. On average, nearly a third of the content of the Danish manifestos is deemed impossible to code. A close examination of the Danish data reveals large variations in the number of coded sentences across time and parties. An analysis of the manifestos on which the coding is based sets all the warning lights flashing. First, not all manifestos are in fact manifestos; a number consist of other political texts (i.e. speeches, drafts) or even stem from different elections (e.g. municipal manifestos masquerading as national manifestos). Second, the large variation in the length of the manifestos across time suggests that the information derived from them is not readily comparable. This leads to a distorted picture of the positions of the Danish parties. The conclusion of this article is that in order for the Danish part of the CMP dataset to become more trustworthy, it is necessary to search the archives, find the actual manifestos and recode them.     

Institutional Effects on State Behavior: Convergence and Divergence

We develop a new typology for examination of the effects of international institutions on member states' behavior. Some institutions lead to convergence of members' practices, whereas others result, often for unintended reasons, in divergence. We hypothesize that the observed effect of institutions depends on the level of externalities to state behavior, the design of the institution, and variation in the organization and access of private interests that share the goals of the institution. We illustrate these propositions with examples drawn from international institutions for development assistance, protection of the ozone layer, and completion of the European Union's internal market. We find that significant externalities and appropriately designed institutions lead to convergence of state behavior, whereas divergence can result from the absence of these conditions and the presence of heterogeneity in domestic politics.     

Intergovernmental Grants and Public Expenditures: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

The relationship between intergovernmental grants and public expenditures is one of the most studied phenomena in the local public finance literature. However, little is known about whether the impact of unconditional grants is fundamentally different from that of other sources of municipal revenue. We study this question by means of a large-scale randomised survey experiment among Danish local politicians, which allows for a comparison of the impact of changes in various sources of municipal revenue. Our findings challenge the conventional conception in the public finance literature that money works differently depending on which sector they are generated in. Instead, ideology plays an important role in explaining how local politicians want to allocate resources when faced with changes in local government revenue.     

Metrological framework for selecting morphological characters to identify species and estimate developmental maturity of forensically significant insect specimens

Accurate age estimates of immature necrophagous insects associated with a human or animal body can provide evidence of how long the body has been dead. These estimates are based on species-specific details of the insects’ aging processes, and therefore require accurate species identification and developmental stage estimation. Many professionals who produce or use identified organisms as forensic evidence have little training in taxonomy or metrology, and appreciate the availability of formalized principles and standards for biological identification. Taxonomic identifications are usually most readily and economically made using categorical and qualitative morphological characters, but it may be necessary to use less convenient and potentially more ambiguous characters that are continuous and quantitative if two candidate species are closely related, or if identifying developmental stages within a species. Characters should be selected by criteria such as taxonomic specificity and metrological repeatability and relative error. We propose such a hierarchical framework, critique various measurements of immature insects, and suggest some standard approaches to determine the reliability of organismal identifications and measurements in estimating postmortem intervals. Relevant criteria for good characters include high repeatability (including low scope for ambiguity or parallax effects), pronounced discreteness, and small relative error in measurements. These same principles apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

Key points

• Metrological rigour can increase in forensic entomology by selecting measurements based on their metrological qualities.
• Selection of high-quality features for morphological identification of organisms should consider these criteria: (1) pronounced discreteness of features (minimising group overlap or maximizing interval); (2) high repeatability of assessment (such as symmetrical width rather than asymmetrical length); (3) small relative error in measurement (selecting the physically largest continuous rigid feature for measurement).
• These metrological principles also apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

     

Public capital stock and interstate variations in manufacturing efficiency

This study focuses on the role of public capital stock in contributing to interstate differences in productive efficiency in manufacturing. Our motivation is to assess the role of public capital as a source of persistent regional variations in efficiency, and thus determine if public infrastructure policies might reasonably be expected to alter the competitive environment of a state's manufacturing sector. We use a stochastic frontier production function model, explicitly incorporating infrastructure capital, to examine the relative performance of the aggregate manufacturing sector across states and over time. We calculate an index of productive efficiency and estimate the determinants of statewide variations in it. These results show that variations in per capita infrastructure stocks significantly affect manufacturing efficiency. Considering the behavior of public capital as both a direct and an indirect input furthers our understanding of the role of infrastructure and its implications for regional economic development policies.     

Evaluation of Suspected Counterfeit Pharmaceutical Tablets Declared to Contain Controlled Substances Using Handheld Raman Spectrometers

This study describes the performance of handheld Raman devices for determining whether suspect pharmaceutical tablets declared to contain controlled substances were consistent with authentic (CWA) or not consistent with authentic (NCWA) tablets using a simple, rapid, field-friendly method capable of being used by nonexperts. Twenty-five authentic products and 84 known NCWA tablets were examined using three “parent” devices for a total of 327 analyses. On average, the parent devices yielded a true pass rate of 100%, a true fail rate of 98.4%, a false pass rate of 1.6%, and a false fail rate of 0%. The methods/libraries were then transferred to 13 identical “daughter” devices, which were used to examine 10 suspect finished dosage forms in duplicate (six known NCWA tablets and four authentic tablets) for a total of 260 measurements. On average, the daughter devices had a true pass rate of 100%, a true fail rate of 95.5%, a false pass rate of 4.5%, and a false fail rate of 0.0%. These data demonstrate that the parent–daughter electronic transfer method was successful, which permits the ability to develop methods in the laboratory that can be seamlessly pushed out to field devices. The methods can then be used to (i) prioritize samples for additional testing using other more time-consuming laboratory-based techniques needed to detect and quantify active ingredients and (ii) help support the interdiction of dangerous tablets at ports of entry, thereby preventing them from reaching the supply chain.