A multinominal logit analysis of the influence of policy variables and board experience on FOMC voting behavior

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper we employ multinominal logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy.     

The politics of sustainable development: impediments to pollution prevention and policy integration in Canada

Abstract: Sustainable development has been widely hailed in Canadian environmental -policy circles, as has its related goals of promoting pollution prevention and integrating policy across sectoral, jurisdictional, and medium (e.g., air, water, land) boundaries. But such broad support has generally not served to translate sustainability into concrete policy initiatives at the federal or provincial levels. Indeed, most Canadian efforts to foster sustainability appear to be largely symbolic in nature, leaving the bulk of environmental regulatory functions highly fragmented by medium and oriented towards pollution control. In comparison with the United States, it remains much more difficult to discern prevention and integration principles being put into practice in Canada in many important areas of environmental policy. The decentralization of policy-making and the lack of policy entrepreneurship within environment ministries in Canada appear to contribute to this comparatively slower response to the challenge of sustainability. Sommaire: Dans les milieux qui formulent les politiques environnementales au Canada, on chante les louanges du développement durable; on vante aussi ses objectifs de promouvoir la prévention de la pollution et d'integrer les politiques au niveau des secteurs, des territoires administratifs et de I'ensemble des trois milieux: air, eau, terre. Cet appui généralisé n'a cependant pas permis, dans l'ensemble, de traduire la durabilité en initiatives concrètes aux niveaux fédéral et provincial. En fait, la plupart des efforts canadiens favorisant la durabilité semblent avoir un caractère largement symbolique, la plupart des fonctions de réglementation environnementale étant fortement fragmentées selon les milieux (air, eau, terre) et orientées vers le contrôle de la pollution. A l'encontre des États-Unis, on a du mal à voir pratiquer au Canada les principes de la prévention et de l'intégration dans de nombreux domaines de politique environnementale. La décentralisation de la formulation des politiques, ainsi que I'inactivité des ministères de l'environnement dans ce domaine, semble contribuer à cette plus grande lenteur face au défi de la durabilité.     

Left–right political scales

Nomination: 'Some expert judgments ' live on by Mogens N. Pedersen, p.147
Reflections: Revisiting expert judgements by Peter Mair & Francis G. Castles, p.150     

Social policy in rich and poor countries

Nomination: Does politics matter? A perennial question! by Hans Keman, p.159
Reflections: Politics does indeed matter! by Manfred G. Schmidt, p.164     

Left-right political scales

Abstract Although left-right scales are an inherent feature of much cross-national research, they have necessarily been created on a somewhat ad hoc basis, since the empirical foundation for valid cross-national scales rarely exists. This paper seeks to provide such a foundation by using judgements of party ideological position which are both explicit and non-idiosyncratic across a wide range of countries. These judgements derive from a so-called 'expert' survey of leading political scientists in Western Europe, the USA, and elsewhere. It is our hope that the scales which we derive in this way may prove useful in a wide variety of contexts of comparative research.     

Using Performance Measures for Federal Budgeting: Proposals and Prospects

The political system, the popular press, and the public have recently been concerned about measuring government performance. This concern for measuring performance should imply a concern for measuring it correctly. With this in mind, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently conducted an analysis of the use of performance measures in the budget process. The study attempts to review the issues raised by performance budgeting in the context of past and current efforts to link performance measures and budgeting. This article focuses on two portions of that study: The status of the current federal performance measurement efforts and specific observations designed to inject a note of caution into the current debate about performance measurement and budgeting.     

The regulation of lobbyists

The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments from Charles Rowley, Robert Tollison, and a referee of this journal.     

State and standards

In this paper a new economic approach to standardization has been presented. Standardization has been regarded as a problem ofgradual choice. An individual chooses to apply more or less standards within a hierarchy of standards. With this decomposition of standards, the problem of strategic market power becomes less important than in the traditional models of standardization. It becomes possible to analyze the problems of network externalities within a framework of non-strategic behavior and to apply the tools of the traditional theory of externalities and public goods. While decentralized action may lead to too little standardization, committees may overcome this deficiency to some extent, but bureaucracies are likely to lead to overstandardization. In the empirical section of the paper it has been shown that our approach can be applied to the standard-setting process in languages, railroads, and telecommunications. In all three cases the tendency of bureaucracies to generate more standardization than committees has been corroborated.The authors are indebted for helpful comments to the participants of the Berlin Seminar on Political Economy and of the colloquium Algemene Economie, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, and to A. Roemer, Saarbrücken.     

The Downsian voter meets the ecological fallacy

This paper presents evidence that voter participation does not depend on the probability that one vote is decisive. An extensive summary of the empirical participation literature is provided which shows that most but not all studies have found that turnout in an electoral district is higher when the race is closer. Individual-level vote regressions for the 1979 and 1980 Canadian national elections are estimated using objective measures of closeness (as opposed to self-reported measures). The main finding is that a citizen is no more likely to vote in a close election than in a lands-lide election. District-level turnout regressions for the same elections are also estimated, and a significant relation between closeness and turnout is observed. This suggests that aggregation bias may generate a spurious closeness-turnout relation in district-level regressions.