Classifying Risk Development and Predicting Parolee Recidivism with Growth Mixture Models

Using two data sets, containing 582 total cases, this study investigates whether classifying offenders on trajectories of risk scores helps predict parolee recidivism. One data set has 4 years of risk scores and another has three. Both data sets contain control variables measuring released inmates’ characteristics. The dependent variable measures arrest or return to prison over a 2-year span. A growth mixture model, classifies offenders into three classes, a stable and high trajectory group, a group with a high but declining risk trajectory, and a small, low-risk group with little change. Trajectory class membership correlates with recidivism in both data sets. Supplementary analyses show that assigned classes are better predictors of recidivism than last risk scores or simple change scores. Discussion centers on the appeal and relevance of trajectories of risk, as opposed to static measures, for predicting offender misconduct and other outcomes.     

Debate and Decide: Innovative Participatory Governance in South Australia 2010–2018

This article provides an account of how innovative participatory governance unfolded in South Australia between 2010 and 2018. In doing so it explores how an ‘interactive’ political leadership style, which scholarship argues is needed in contemporary democracy, played out in practice. Under the leadership of Premier Jay Weatherill this approach to governing, known as ‘debate and decide’, became regarded as one of the most successful examples of democratic innovation globally. Using an archival and media method of analysis the article finds evidence of the successful application of an interactive political leadership style, but one that was so woven into competitive politics that it was abandoned after a change in government in March 2018. To help sustain interactive political leadership styles the article argues for research into how a broader base of politicians perceives the benefits and risks of innovative participatory governance. It also argues for a focus on developing politicians' collaborative leadership capabilities. However, the article concludes by asking: if political competition is built into our system of government, are we be better off leveraging it, rather than resisting it, in the pursuit of democratic reform?     

Residential Mobility and Delinquency Revisited: Causation or Selection?

Objectives

To assess the role of selection in the observed association between residential mobility and delinquency among adolescents.

Methods

This study draws on a sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We first examine whether adjusting regression models for several well-established determinants of moving attenuates the association between mobility and delinquency. We then employ propensity score methods to estimate the effect of residential mobility on delinquency among a sub-sample of movers and non-movers who had similar likelihoods of moving.

Results

The association between mobility and delinquency is significant and positive in regression models, although it is somewhat attenuated by additional control variables that are rarely considered in prior work. However, the distribution of mobility determinants differs substantially across movers and non-movers, potentially biasing these estimates. After covariate balance is achieved using a propensity score approach, we observe no differences in delinquency between groups.

Conclusions

Results suggest that certain adolescents are more likely to move than others, explaining the observed association between mobility and delinquency. Future research should therefore be mindful of selection when trying to account for differential outcomes between mobile and non-mobile adolescents.     

Which Issues do Parties Emphasise? Salience Strategies and Party Organisation in Multiparty Systems

Party system issue agendas are formed by the topics that individual parties decide to address, and these salience decisions are likely to be strategic. Two key strategies are commonly discussed in the literature: parties’ focus on (1) issues that they have ownership over and (2) issues that currently concern voters. Yet it is not known what explains the extent to which parties pursue each of these strategies. This paper argues that aspects of party organisation influence which salience strategy is pursued. Parties that have more resources will be able to ‘ride the wave’ of current concerns while parties with fewer resources are more likely to focus on their best issues. Furthermore, policy-seeking parties with strong activist influence will be less likely to ‘ride the wave’ and more likely to follow issue ownership strategies. An analysis of 105 election manifestos from 27 elections in 17 countries shows that aspects of party organisation are indeed strong and robust moderators of issue ownership strategies. Limited, albeit mixed, evidence is also found that party organisation affects the use of ‘riding the wave’ strategies. These results have important implications for our understanding of electoral campaigns, party competition and voter representation.     

An Empirical Study of Rape in the Context of Multiple Murder

In recent years, multiple homicide offending has received increased research attention from criminologists; however, there is mixed evidence about the role of rape toward the perpetration of multiple murder. Drawing on criminal career data from a nonprobability sample of 618 confined male homicide offenders selected from eight U.S. states, the current study examines the role of rape as a predictor of multiple homicide offending. Bivariate analyses indicated a significant association between rape and murder charges. Multivariate path regression models indicated that rape had a significant and robust association with multiple murder. This relationship withstood the confounding effects of kidnapping, prior prison confinement, and prior murder, rape, and kidnapping. These results provide evidence that rape potentially serves as a gateway to multiple murder for some serious offenders. Suggestions for future research are proffered.     

Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities’ Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities’ vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.     

The Revitalization of Diplomatic History: Renewed Reflections

Diplomacy is one of the oldest human institutions, with diplomatic records dating back to some of the earliest civilizations. At present, the methods and content of diplomatic history have much to offer modern scholars, but the field as a whole suffers from being out of step, philosophically, with the mainstream of historical and political-scientific study. The departure of diplomatic history from the philosophical mainstream both of political science and of history in general has left the field in dire straits. Fallen from its former grace, diplomatic history requires a new vision: not a groundbreaking, original vision, but a vision informed by previous generations, adapting their foundational principles to the ideals and demands of the twenty-first century academy. It is thus not only the Grand Tradition itself, but its ethos that must be preserved, in order to retain the distinguishing character and methods of diplomatic and military history as independent, politically moderate academic disciplines, regardless of their reputation among neighboring fields.     

A brief measure of the triarchic model of psychopathy among community youths: psychometrics and measurement invariance

ABSTRACT

The development and validation of empirically sound measures that operationalize the Triarchic model of psychopathy among youth is currently in the nascent stage. The present study aimed to examine the psychometric properties of a brief refined measure of the Triarchic model of psychopathy based on the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI-Tri-S) among a mixed-gender school sample of 782 youth (M?=?15.87 years, SD?=?1.72) from Portugal. Confirmatory factor analysis offered support for the theoretically expected three-factor structure. Cross-gender measurement invariance using the present sample and cross-sample measurement invariance of the YPI-Tri-S using a previously collected forensic sample of institutionalized males was established. The YPI-Tri-S showed adequate psychometric properties in terms of discriminant validity, convergent validity, concurrent criterion-related validity, known-groups validity, and internal consistency. Findings indicate that YPI-Tri-S is a valuable brief and psychometrically reliable and valid self-report measure of the Triarchic model of psychopathy for use in diverse samples of youth.     

Predicting dropout from a residential programme for adolescent sexual abusers using pre-treatment variables and implications for recidivism

Abstract

This study addresses the prediction that dropout from a UK specialized residential treatment program for adolescent sexual abusers can be determined from pre-treatment variables. Participants were 49 adolescents aged 12–16?years, who had sexually abused children, peers/adults or both. Of the variables examined, 25 showed a significant association with treatment dropout. A scale, consisting of 20 items, was designed to predict treatment dropout. As a measure it showed internal consistency (alpha?=?0.84) and predictive validity. Treatment dropout was linked to a greater risk of recidivism: offences of a general; violent; and combined violent or sexual nature. Missing data confounded the overall small sample size; therefore, a brief checklist of factors associated with dropout was produced as a guide for treatment managers and clinicians.