An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

Each year more offenders are sentenced to probation than to any other sanction in the criminal justice system. In spite of the saliency of probation programs, the evidence is mixed concerning their effectiveness. In order to address this important gap in the research, the authors sought to determine if probation was effective in achieving one of its stated goals: protecting public safety. In doing so, they conducted a macro-level analysis, exploring the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in each county in California over a nine-year period. Results from a two-way fixed effects regression model suggested that as probation loads increased, so did crime. While additional research into the effectiveness of probation is clearly needed, the results of the analysis nevertheless indicated that improvements in public safety could be expected if probation caseloads were reduced.     

The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon

Despite the massive attention heaped on the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon by public opinion scholars, relatively little attention has been paid to its constituent elements. Yet, recent research has found that different groups of Americans respond differently to presidents' activities according to their interests and attentiveness. In this study, I disaggregate public opinion along two dimensions: political party and political sophistication. I argue that in responding to high-profile presidential activities abroad, different groups of Americans weigh various individual, contextual, and situational factors differently. I investigate all major U.S. uses of force between 1953 and 1998 and find that the propensity of different groups to rally does indeed vary according to individual and environmental circumstances. To explain these differences, I employ two models of public opinion. The first emphasizes the importance of threshold effects in explaining opinion change. That is, individuals who are closest to the point of ambivalence between approval and disapproval are most likely to change their opinion in response to external circumstances. The second emphasizes both the propensities of different types of individuals to be exposed to a given piece of information, and their susceptibility to having their opinion influenced by any additional information. My results offer a more nuanced picture of the nature and extent of the rally phenomenon than has been available in previous studies. My findings also hold important implications for other related scholarly debates, such as whether, and under what circumstances, the use of force can successfully divert public attention from a president's domestic political difficulties.     

Voting rules in insolvency law: a simple-game theoretic approach

A chief characteristic of modern insolvency law in Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US is the provision for ‘workouts’ or ‘schemes of arrangement’ by which insolvent companies can attempt to rehabilitate the business. If reorganization is chosen, the debtor has to devise a plan of action which will be voted upon by claimants. The voting rules, however, differ in each jurisdiction to a greater or lesser extent and as yet have not been analyzed in any rigorous manner. This paper provides an approach based upon the theory of simple games to analyze the rules in terms of the ease which each of these regimes can pass (or hinder) plans and how these rules distribute value among claimants. We pay particular attention to the role of classification and the effect of coalition formation.     

Globalisation, Ecological Modernisation and New Labour

Ecological modernisation (EM) provides the principal framework within which environmental policy reform projects are understood. However, writers using the approach, neglect to explain the political contexts within which it is possible to pursue such projects. Specifically, they ignore how discourses of globalisation structure the attempts of states to introduce environmental policy measures consistent with EM agendas. Through an analysis of the UK government's attempts to introduce policies consistent with an EM approach, we show that New Labour's discourse of globalisation acts to create opportunities for EM in some policy arenas and hinder them in others. We examine the development of a renewable energy strategy, the case of genetically modified foods, and transport policy. By specifying conditions under which EM may be pursued, the analysis reveals the potential, but also the limits, of this approach, which attempts to ignore the deep political questions raised by environmental degradation.     

Designing a dispute resolution system for water policy and management

Conclusions The Montana state water planning process represents one example of how a government agency with decision-making responsibilities can design and facilitate a dispute resolution system. Dispute resolution systems can increase the participation of all affected interests in developing and implementing public policy. This, in turn, should increase their ownership in the final decision and in seeing that it is implemented. A dispute resolution system may not decrease the volume of conflicts, per se, but it should reduce the high costs of conflict and realize the benefits of conflict more efficiently.The use of dispute resolution systems to address complex, multi-party public policy issues also provides other benefits, including the consideration of diverse perspectives and interests; the cooperative and systematic analysis of technical and scientific information; the formation of more pragmatic, equitable, and mutually acceptable goals and alternatives; and the improvement of relationships among diverse, often competing interests, government agencies, and policymakers. Matthew McKinney is a policy analyst and facilitator with the State of Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, 1520 East Sixth Avenue, Helena, Mont. 59620.An earlier version of this article was presented at a conference titled Innovation in Western Water Law and Management, held at the Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado School of Law, 5–7 June, 1991.     

Victor Klemperer. Munich 1919. Diary of a Revolution

Victor Klemperer. Munich 1919. Diary of a Revolution . Translated by Jessica Spengler (Cambridge: Polity, 2017), pp.x + 190. Sixteen b/w plates. £15.51 (hb).