Predicting Probationer Rates of Reincarceration Using Dynamic Factors from the Substance Abuse Questionnaire-Adult Probation III (SAQ-Adult Probation III)

Individuals incarcerated for violating the terms of their probation constitute a large portion of the prison population. Intervention programs designed to rehabilitate probationers have the potential to reduce prison populations and moderate the costs associated with incarceration. Unlike previous research, which has focused on demographic and static characteristics, the present study examined dynamic factors as predictors of probation revocation, as they may be more amenable to rehabilitation. The sample was comprised of 8,310 adult probationers and used scores from the SAQ-Adult Probation III. Poisson regression analyses showed that three dynamic factors, violence, antisocial behavior, and stress risk were positively related to the number of lifetime probation revocations. These results are discussed in light of potential rehabilitative benefits.     

Contractual Interpretation,Registered Documents and Third Party Effects

This article considers whether extrinsic material should be available in interpreting registered documents when these may be contractual in nature or relate to contractual agreements. Many registers, for example the current scheme for recording land title, are intended to facilitate the reliance of third parties on their content, an objective that suggests that extrinsic material should be excluded. Such an approach, however, could itself cause unfairness and conflicts with the way that contractual documents are normally interpreted. Exploring this question leads us to consider the contextual approach to contractual interpretation generally and whether it should take account of the contemplated effects of contractual language on third parties. After concluding in the affirmative, we then ask whether this is sufficient as an approach to interpreting contractual documents entered into a register.     

Leopards Can Change Their Spots: When Leaders Take Out of Character Actions

According to audience cost theories, out of character actions by hawkish leaders are likely when such leaders can use their reputations to deflect criticism. This analysis examines the theory of out of character actions, focusing on shifting international conditions and the use of secrecy to allow leaders both to lead public opinion and avoid unwanted scrutiny. The plausibility of this theory is tested in the paradigmatic case for hawkish policy reversal: Richard Nixon’s rapprochement with China in 1971–1972. Examination of four facets of Sino–American relations—the Soviet dimension, conservative opposition to rapprochement, growing domestic support for improved relations, and the secrecy of negotiations—reveal the significance of contextual factors and Nixon’s decisions in explaining improved relations. Leaders can effectively change their type with minimal political repercussions, as long as conditions are favourable and audience costs can be minimised.     

Applying Rasch modeling to the validity of a control balance scale

Classical test theory approaches to measurement are based upon a number of fairly restrictive assumptions. The nature of these assumptions is such that scales designed to operationalize latent constructs are treated with little regard for the interaction between the human subject and the items that compose the measurement scale. A competing measurement approach, the Rasch model, has been advanced to improve upon the limitations of classical test theory. In this article, the Rasch model was applied to a scale designed to measure Tittle's control balance ratio. Analysis suggests that the original scale and response category options do not meet fundamental measurement. In particular, several items exhibited misfit (and were thus removed from the scale), response category options were reduced from eleven to four, and the scales that form the control balance ratio exhibited very little gender bias. An alternative control balance scale that retains the original items is presented, but this scale no longer summarizes the control balance ratio as one overall score. The implications of these results are addressed.     

The moderating effects of religiosity on the relationship between stressful life events and delinquent behavior

Previous research has shown that many forms of strain are positively related to delinquency. Evidence also suggests that religiosity buffers the effects of strain on offending, but this issue requires further research. Using data from a national sample of adolescents, this study examined whether or not religiosity conditioned the relationship between strain and delinquency. This study also looked at the ability of social support, self-esteem, and depression to moderate the influence of strain on delinquent behavior. The findings here lend support to general strain theory in that strain had a direct positive effect on delinquency, yet there was little evidence that the relationship was moderated by religiosity or other conditioning variables. The roles of moderating variables on strain across genders were also considered.