By ground or by air? Voter mobilization during the United States’ 2008 presidential campaign

Aggregate studies find no effect of campaign advertising on voter turnout in the United States, thereby calling into question experimental and survey-based studies that produce strong turnout effects. In revisiting the debate over the impact of campaign ads, this paper examines the effects of both TV campaign advertising and campaign field offices on aggregate voter turnout during the 2008 US presidential election campaign. In contrast to previous studies, our analysis finds that both campaign field offices and campaign advertising help to stimulate turnout, although the effect of campaign field offices is more robust to alternative model specifications. We also find that only Obama's field offices had any discernible impact on aggregate voter turnout, thereby reinforcing the narrative that the Obama campaign had a superior ground game in 2008.     

The 2017 General Election,Brexit and the Return to Two‐Party Politics: An Aggregate‐Level Analysis of the Result

The outcome of the 2017 general election—a hung parliament—defied most predictions. In this article, we draw on aggregate‐level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? First, we find that turnout was generally higher in more pro‐remain areas, and places with high concentrations of young people, ethnic minorities and university graduates. Second, we find that the Conservatives made gains in the sort of places that had previously backed Brexit and previously voted for UKIP . But, third, we find that the gains the Conservatives made from the electoral decline of UKIP were offset by losses in the sort of places that had previously supported the Conservatives, particularly areas in southern England with larger numbers of graduates. The implication of these findings is that while a Brexit effect contributed to a ‘realignment on the right’, with the Conservative strategy appealing to people in places that had previously voted for UKIP , this strategy was not without an electoral cost, and appears to have hurt the party in more middle class areas.     

Hemispheric reconfigurations in Northern Amazonia: the ‘Three Guianas’ amid regional change and Brazilian hegemony

Regional and hemispheric reconfigurations in Latin America and the Caribbean are increasingly mediated by Brazilian power, and the engagement of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana with this emerging context is intriguing. They are tentatively moving away from a Caribbean region with which they are culturally contiguous, towards a South American continent in which they are geographically located. This is partly a reflection of the gradual opening up of the Northern Amazonian space that they share collectively, and also with Venezuela and Brazil. These processes are occurring as cause and effect of Brazil’s emergence as a regional – and even regionally hegemonic – power. With reference to wider debates on regionalism and hegemony, we analyse the uncertain consequences of these shifts.     

Brexit,the 2019 General Election and the Realignment of British Politics

The outcome of the 2019 general election—a resounding Conservative majority and an unprecedented defeat for Labour—delivered a decisive electoral verdict for the first time in recent years following a period where British politics has been characterised by instability and indecision. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2019 general election result? How far has Brexit reshaped electoral politics? Was 2019 a ‘realignment election’? And, if so, what are the implications? With a focus on England and Wales we show that, although the Conservatives made gains deep into Labour’s working class heartlands, these gains have been a long time coming, reflected in Labour’s weakening relationship with working class Britain. As such, 2019 is not a critical election but a continuation of longer-term trends of dealignment and realignment in British politics.     

Caregiver and Youth Agreement Regarding Youths’ Trauma Histories: Implications for Youths’ Functioning After Exposure to Trauma

Epidemiological research has demonstrated that youth are exposed to potentially traumatic events at high rates. Caregivers play an important role in youths’ successful recovery following exposures to potentially traumatic events. However, past research has documented poor caregiver–youth agreement regarding youths’ exposures to potentially traumatic events, indicating a potential lack of support for many youth exposed to such events. This study examined caregiver–youth discrepancies in the reports of youths’ lifetime exposures to potentially traumatic events, and the relationship between these reporting discrepancies and youths’ post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, mood symptoms, and functional impairment following disclosures of sexual abuse. Participants included 114 caregiver–youth dyads participating in a family-based intervention at four Child Advocacy Centers in New York City. Standardized measures of trauma history, youth PTSD symptoms, youth mood symptoms, youth functional impairment, and caregiver PTSD symptoms were given in interview format to caregivers and youth at the time of intake into the intervention. The demographic composition of the youth sample was 86.8 % female, 13.2 % male, 32.5 % African American, 54.4 % Latino/a, 2.6 % Caucasian, 0.9 % Asian American, 8.8 % other race/ethnicity. Youth ranged in age from 7 to 16. Results demonstrated poor agreement between youth and caregivers regarding youths’ exposure to a range of potentially traumatic events and regarding youths’ PTSD symptoms, mood symptoms and functional impairment. Both caregiver–youth discrepancies regarding youths’ histories of exposures to potentially traumatic events and caregiver PTSD symptoms were significantly associated with youths’ self-reported symptoms and functional impairment. Only caregiver PTSD symptoms were related to caregivers’ reports of youths’ symptoms and functional impairment. Findings underscore the importance of family support and communication regarding exposures to potentially traumatic events and the detrimental associations of caregiver–youth disagreement about youths’ exposures to potentially traumatic events. Recommendations are provided for the assessment and treatment of families presenting in the aftermath of traumatic exposures.