The Semiconstrained Court: Public Opinion,the Separation of Powers,and the U.S. Supreme Court's Fear of Nonimplementation

Numerous studies have found that elite and popular preferences influence decision making on the U.S. Supreme Court; yet, uncertainty remains about when, how, and why the Court is constrained by external pressure. I argue the justices are constrained, at least in part, because they fear nonimplementation of their decisions. I test this theory by utilizing a recent study of judicial power, which finds the Court enjoys greater implementation power in “vertical” cases (those involving criminal and civil liability) than in “lateral” cases (all others; e.g., those involving schools or government agencies). I find that Court constraint is strongest in important lateral cases—those cases in which implementation depends on support from nonjudicial actors. My findings suggest that Supreme Court constraint is driven by the justices' fear of nonimplementation and is, therefore, dependent on institutional context.     

Signaling Alliance Commitments: Hand‐Tying and Sunk Costs in Extended Nuclear Deterrence

How can states signal their alliance commitments? Although scholars have developed sophisticated theoretical models of costly signaling in international relations, we know little about which specific policies leaders can implement to signal their commitments. This article addresses this question with respect to the extended deterrent effects of nuclear weapons. Can nuclear states deter attacks against their friends by simply announcing their defense commitments? Or must they deploy nuclear weapons on a protégé's territory before an alliance is seen as credible? Using a new dataset on foreign nuclear deployments from 1950 to 2000, our analysis reveals two main findings. First, formal alliances with nuclear states appear to carry significant deterrence benefits. Second, however, stationing nuclear weapons on a protégé's territory does not bolster these effects. The analysis yields new insights about the dynamics of “hand‐tying” and “sunk cost” signals in international politics.     

Climate change refugees

Under the UNHCR definition of a refugee, set out in the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, people fleeing their homes because of natural disasters or other environmental problems do not qualify for refugee status and the protection that come from such status. In a recent paper, I defended the essentials of the UNHCR definition on the grounds that refugee status and protection is best reserved for people who can only be helped by granting them refuge in a safe state for an indefinite period of time, and argued that this does not include most people fleeing from natural disasters. This claim is most strongly challenged by the possibility of displacement from climate change. In this paper, I will explore to what degree the logic of the refugee convention, as set out in my earlier paper, can and should be extended to those fleeing the results of climate change.     

Cultivating Youth Engagement: Race & the Behavioral Effects of Critical Pedagogy

Political Behavior - Political scientists attribute gaps in participation between whites and people of color to unequal access to political resources, political efficacy, and weak affiliations to...     

Controlled electrostatic methodology for imaging indentations in documents

The electrostatic process for imaging indentations on documents using the ESDA device is investigated under controlled experimental settings. An in-house modified commercial xerographic developer housing is used to control the uniformity and volume of toner deposition, allowing for reproducible image development. Along with this novel development tool, an electrostatic voltmeter and fixed environmental conditions facilitate an optimization process. Sample documents are preconditioned in a humidity cabinet with microprocessor control, and the significant benefit of humidification above 70% RH on image quality is verified. Improving on the subjective methods of previous studies, image quality analysis is carried out in an objective and reproducible manner using the PIAS-II. For the seven commercial paper types tested, the optimum ESDA operating point is found to be at an electric potential near -400V at the Mylar surface; however, for most paper types, the optimum operating regime is found to be quite broad, spanning relatively small electric potentials between -200 and -550V. At -400V, the film right above an indented area generally carries a voltage which is 30-50V less negative than the non-indented background. In contrast with Seward's findings [G.H. Seward, Model for electrostatic imaging of forensic evidence via discharge through Mylar-paper path, J. Appl. Phys. 83 (3) (1998) 1450-1456; G.H. Seward, Practical implications of the charge transport model for electrostatic detection apparatus (ESDA), J. Forensic Sci. 44 (4) (1999) 832-836], a period of charge decay before image development is not required when operating in this optimal regime. A brief investigation of the role played by paper-to-paper friction during the indentation process is conducted using our optimized development method.     

PARALLEL IMPORTATION AND SERVICE QUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF COMPETITION BETWEEN DVDS AND CINEMAS IN NEW ZEALAND

Investigations into the causes and effects of parallel importinghave concentrated on price discrimination, but arbitrage canalso occur on non-price dimensions. Using a natural experimentin the New Zealand film distribution industry between May 1998and November 2001, we examine the effect of parallel importingon quality as it relates to the timing of the availability offilm media. We demonstrate that (a) cinema revenues were underminedas consumers substituted viewing films on parallel importedDVDs for the cinema format and (b) that studios responded tothe threat of parallel imported DVDs by bringing forward therelease of films into New Zealand cinemas. The reduced delaybetween US and New Zealand cinematic release dates is shownto be consistent with the introduction of competition when timingis a dimension of quality and choice. We conclude that parallelimportation of DVDs almost certainly resulted in a net increasein welfare in New Zealand.     

An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

Each year more offenders are sentenced to probation than to any other sanction in the criminal justice system. In spite of the saliency of probation programs, the evidence is mixed concerning their effectiveness. In order to address this important gap in the research, the authors sought to determine if probation was effective in achieving one of its stated goals: protecting public safety. In doing so, they conducted a macro-level analysis, exploring the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in each county in California over a nine-year period. Results from a two-way fixed effects regression model suggested that as probation loads increased, so did crime. While additional research into the effectiveness of probation is clearly needed, the results of the analysis nevertheless indicated that improvements in public safety could be expected if probation caseloads were reduced.     

The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon

Despite the massive attention heaped on the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon by public opinion scholars, relatively little attention has been paid to its constituent elements. Yet, recent research has found that different groups of Americans respond differently to presidents' activities according to their interests and attentiveness. In this study, I disaggregate public opinion along two dimensions: political party and political sophistication. I argue that in responding to high-profile presidential activities abroad, different groups of Americans weigh various individual, contextual, and situational factors differently. I investigate all major U.S. uses of force between 1953 and 1998 and find that the propensity of different groups to rally does indeed vary according to individual and environmental circumstances. To explain these differences, I employ two models of public opinion. The first emphasizes the importance of threshold effects in explaining opinion change. That is, individuals who are closest to the point of ambivalence between approval and disapproval are most likely to change their opinion in response to external circumstances. The second emphasizes both the propensities of different types of individuals to be exposed to a given piece of information, and their susceptibility to having their opinion influenced by any additional information. My results offer a more nuanced picture of the nature and extent of the rally phenomenon than has been available in previous studies. My findings also hold important implications for other related scholarly debates, such as whether, and under what circumstances, the use of force can successfully divert public attention from a president's domestic political difficulties.