Between technocracy and politics: How financial stability committees shape precautionary interventions in real estate markets

Implementing precautionary measures that have obvious distributional consequences today but often only invisible future benefits is politically difficult. It requires that policymakers reconcile technocratic expertise with political consent. This paper traces attempts to enact such measures, focusing on countercyclical policies to limit the systemic risks of housing booms as proposed by financial stability committees in Germany, France, and the Netherlands from 2015 onwards. These committees bring together technocrats and political authorities in order to overcome the inaction bias inherent to these measures, seeking to forge both epistemic and political consensus on the need for action. We find that the work of these committees is characterized by lengthy processes of consensus-building, during which technocrats amass evidence and search for politically acceptable solutions. We argue that whether this leads to meaningful steps crucially depends on the committee's institutional set-up. What particularly matters is its capacity to engage the Ministry of Finance in binding discussions and the governance arrangements for the activation of precautionary instruments, which shape whether a shared framing of the problem and appropriate response emerges.     

Cream-skimming at the frontline: The role of administrative literacy

The notion of cream-skimming—defined as the propensity to prioritize clients who have a higher likelihood of meeting bureaucratic success criteria, including organizational goals—is at the heart of street-level bureaucracies. However, there is often no direct information available to street-level bureaucrats whether clients will actually meet bureaucratic success criteria. This study argues that street-level bureaucrats assess clients' potential to reach these criteria via their administrative literacy—a client's capacity to obtain, process, and understand basic information and services from public administrations—as displayed in social interactions. Therefore, this study elaborates on the role of clients' administrative literacy and its effects on cream-skimming behavior. Using data from two experiments, we show that public employees prioritize clients with higher levels of preparedness and effective communication strategies. These findings suggest that cream-skimming is not just a rational cost–benefit analysis, but strongly influenced by social dynamics within public encounters.     

Self-legitimation in the face of politicization: Why international organizations centralized public communication

International organizations (I0) have centralized their public communication to a large extent over recent decades by undertaking a broader codification of communication tasks as well as a departmentalization of these tasks within units of IO bureaucracies. The paper provides the first systematic analysis of this important development in institutional design using a novel data set on the organization of public communication in 48 IOs between 1950 and 2015. It identifies self-legitimation as a key driver of centralization in the face of increased levels of politicization, that is, public awareness and activism directed at IOs. Empirically, the study suggests that the centralization of public communication significantly increases as transnational civil society organizes and gains access to IO decision-making. Further, politicization in terms of contentious activism and public scandals substantially accounts for varying levels of centralization across IOs.     

Fine Art, High Finance

正China becomes the art market's boomtown in the emerging East Buying art can be as prestigious as owning a downtown luxury apartment, a high-powered Mercedes-Benz or other pricy toys the rich use to fight ennui and establish status. In China's modern times, the main difference between a fancy limousine and a painting is that the limousine     

Biased contests

We examine the effects of providing more accurate information to a political decision-maker lobbied by competing interests. We investigate how this bias in the direction of the correct decision affects efficiency, measured (inversely) by both the probability of taking an incorrect decision, and the amount of social waste associated to lobbying activities. We present a benchmark model in which increasing the bias always improves efficiency. However, this result is fragile as slight changes in the contest success function lead to slightly different models in which under either criterion there is no guarantee that more accurate information improves the decision.     

From the national state to the rational state and back? An exercise in understanding politics and identity in Germany in the twentieth century

The end of the East‐West conflict and the unification of Germany in 1990 have dramatically altered the geopolitical shape of Europe. Speculations abound, in particular as regards Germany: have the spectres of German nationalism been banished for good? Is the new Berlin Republic different from the Bonn Republic? This article traces the national idea in Germany since the early nineteenth century and argues that the Bonn years have been crucial in the development of a civic culture which transcends the concept of a nation dominant in Germany from 1871 to 1945. Rather than marking a return of traditional nationalist concepts, the unification of Germany may well open the way for a lasting reorientation towards a civic concept of national identity in Germany.     

Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that particular religious structures are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes more likely. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if so, in which way? To answer these questions, this article draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g., demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g., inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Logit regressions suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. These findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis, and stress the impact of conflict-prone religious structures, and particularly, the fact that overlaps of religious and ethnic identities are conflict-prone. Future research should investigate the religion-ethnicity-nexus in more detail.     

A randomized experiment of a prisoner reentry program: updated results from an evaluation of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP)

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), a prisoner reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. Results from Cox regression models showed that MCORP significantly reduced four of the five recidivism measures examined, although the size of the reduction in hazard ratios was relatively modest (20–25%). The findings further suggested that MCORP reduced costs. Sensitivity analyses showed, however, that the cost avoidance estimates were not robust across all assumptions that were examined.     

Civil society and the European common security and defence policy

The involvement of civil society organizations (CSOs) is widely regarded by students of the EU's domestic policy fields as enhancing transparency and accountability and, more generally, the democratic quality of political processes. This article explores the contribution of CSOs to the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy and assesses whether a democracy-enhancing effect of their involvement can also be demonstrated for this policy field. We analyse the contribution of CSOs based on two common models of democracy: the intergovernmental and the supranational model of democracy. We find that CSOs are indeed quite actively involved in the EU's security policy. With regard to their democracy-enhancing effects, however, our findings are rather mixed. While the engagement of CSOs does provide a remedy for the democratic deficits associated with intergovernmental decision-making, these organizations do not fully meet the demands posed by supranational governance.