Drilling Deeper: A Systematic,Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link

Abstract

This article employs an innovative methodology to study causal mechanisms in the oil–conflict link by combining a systematic approach with taking into account country details. Engaging in a deductive test of causal mechanisms in a controlled comparison of four major oil exporters, results show that no oil-related causal mechanism can fully explain the differences in violence. A more inductive analysis complemented by process tracing suggests a more comprehensive mechanism: oil contributes to the formation of opposition through grievances. Levels of violence, however, vary largely according to non-oil conditions – particularly the cohesiveness of opposition and the reaction of government to challengers.     

Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights

Public Choice - This study analyzes the consequences of economic sanctions for the target country’s human rights situation. We offer a political economy explanation for different types of...     

Disinvesting in the administrative capacity for public action

Recurring cutbacks in the public sector have received extensiveattention. Most of the emphasis has been on how to adjust to declinein support for public programs. Cutback Management andcon-tracting-out are examples of this approach. This article focuseson the negative consequence of cutbacks. It suggests that inadequateattention is being given to the decrease in the capacity of agenciesto act. An administrative disinvestment is occurring in much the sameway as it has for roads, bridges and other parts of our public infrastructure. Now, we are disinvesting in another critical social asset--our public bureau-cracies. The nature and implictions ofadminis-trative disinvestment are explord.     

Violations of out-group and in-group regulations in the eyes of ordinary and protected prisoners: an instance of judgmental modularity

According to the functional theory of cognition, everyday life blaming for wrongdoing reflects individuals' functional morality. The judgments of normative people were found to be modular, that is, changeable as a function of the social role taken at the moment of the judgment. This article presents several empirical indications that prisoners' functional moral judgments are modular as well. These studies were conducted within the experimental framework of functional measurement, which was chosen due to its ability to bypass prisoners' suspicion and resistance to out-group investigations. The studies focus on delinquents' core moral issues such as eyewitness testimony and informing to out-group authorities. As expected, the judgments of ordinary and protected inmates were modular. It is claimed that these findings are applicable to offender rehabilitation and correction and to offender therapy.     

An experimental analysis of voting in the Stability and Growth Pact in the European Monetary Union

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in the European Monetary Union shall deter countries from running excessive deficits by the threat of punishment, executed conditional on the outcome of a multistage voting procedure. We examine voting behaviour in an experiment which closely resembles the SGP’s design and find that the SGP enables larger countries to block punishment more often than smaller countries. In addition, we study an institutional modification of the SGP by excluding countries with excessive deficits from voting on other ‘fiscal sinners’. Our findings clearly suggest that this innovation would give the SGP sharper teeth than it actually has in reality.     

Virtopsy: postmortem imaging of the human heart in situ using MSCT and MRI

The rapid further development of computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) induced the idea to use these techniques for postmortem documentation of forensic findings. Until now, only a few institutes of forensic medicine have acquired experience in postmortem cross-sectional imaging. Protocols, image interpretation and visualization have to be adapted to the postmortem conditions. Especially, postmortem alterations, such as putrefaction and livores, different temperature of the corpse and the loss of the circulation are a challenge for the imaging process and interpretation. Advantages of postmortem imaging are the higher exposure and resolution available in CT when there is no concern for biologic effects of ionizing radiation, and the lack of cardiac motion artifacts during scanning. CT and MRI may become useful tools for postmortem documentation in forensic medicine. In Bern, 80 human corpses underwent postmortem imaging by CT and MRI prior to traditional autopsy until the month of August 2003. Here, we describe the imaging appearance of postmortem alterations--internal livores, putrefaction, postmortem clotting--and distinguish them from the forensic findings of the heart, such as calcification, endocarditis, myocardial infarction, myocardial scarring, injury and other morphological alterations.     

Forensic interpretation of Y-chromosomal DNA mixtures

The mathematical concept previously introduced for the forensic interpretation of DNA mixtures using non-associated genetic markers has been adapted to the assessment of haplotypes. Such calculus is required, for example, when Y-chromosomal markers are used in forensics. In addition to outlining the general mathematical framework, we devise two approaches to its practical computational implementation, involving either the inclusion-exclusion principle of probability theory or a recursion in the number of unknown contributors invoked. The two approaches scale differently, depending upon the complexity of the case and the diversity of the markers used. The performance of Y-chromosomal microsatellites (Y-STRs) as a means of trace donor discrimination has been assessed by simulation, using the derived formulas. Based upon data from the Y-chromosomal Haplotype Reference Database (YHRD), the exclusion chance of a non-contributor is shown to vary between 95% in the case of two contributors, and 70% for five contributors. With only one additional contributor, half of all contributing suspects would yield a log-likelihood ratio in favour of donorship of 1.61 or higher, although the median drops to 0.66 with four additional contributors. It must be emphasised that these estimates of the discriminatory power of Y-STRs are likely to be conservative since the simulations involved only haplotypes known to occur in YHRD.