SYMPOSIUM: RESURGENT ISLAM IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The following is an edited version of the proceedings of a symposium sponsored by the Middle East Policy Council on May 26, 1994, in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC. Former Senator George McGovern, President of the Council, introduced the panel; Thomas R. Mattair, the Councis Director of Research and Policy Analysis, was the organizer and moderator; Michael Collins Dunn, Senior Analyst of The International Estimate, Inc., and editor of its biweekly newsletter, The Estimate, was the discussant.     

Suicidal ideation in adolescence: Depression,substance use,and other risk factors

The interrelationships of depression and suicide with adolescent drug use, delinquency, eating disorders, and the risk factors for these different problems were investigated among 597 9th and 11th graders in an urban high school. There is a strong association of drug use with suicidal ideation among girls, and a stronger relationship with attempts among girls and boys. Suicidal youths are ill-adjusted and display a lack of attachment and commitment to family and school. Causal models indicate that poor interpersonal interactions with parents, absence of peer interactions, and life events lead to depression, which in turn leads to suicidal ideation. Depressive symptoms are the strongest predictors of suicidal ideation. Among females, depression predicts drug involvement, and in turn, drug use increases suicidal ideation. Drug use is only one class of problem behaviors that constitutes a risk factor for suicidal behavior in adolescence. Delinquency and eating disorders also have direct effects on suicidal ideation beyond those of depressive affect. As for drug involvement, these problem behaviors are more predictive of suicidal behavior among girls than boys. Similarity and specificity of the predictors for problem behaviors within and between the sexes are discussed. Although young women use drugs to handle feelings of depression, drug use appears ineffective in the long run in relieving these depressive feelings. Understanding the dynamics of suicidal ideation in adolescence has important public health implications, since ideation is a strong predictor of attempts, especially among females.Revised version of a presentation at the Workshop on Adolescent Depression, Princeton, NJ, June 3, 1987.Work on this research has been partially supported by Research Grants DA00064, DA01097, DA03196, and DA02867, and by Research Scientist Award DA00081 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse; and awards from the John D. and Catherine MacArthur Foundation and the Research Foundation for Mental Hygiene, New York State Psychiatric Institute. Partial support for computer costs was provided by Mental Health Clinical Research Center Grant MH30906-07 from NIMH to the New York State Psychiatric Institute.Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include adolescent psychosocial development, epidemiology and risk factors for drug use, and interpersonal networks.Work on this research was carried out while a Research Associate at the School of Public Health, Columbia University. Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include personal networks and social support systems in chronic illness, societal factors in mental health, psychosocial consequences of drug use and abuse, panel mortality, and survey methodology.Received M.P.H. from Columbia University. Research interests include reliability and child psychiatry.     

Negative affect and hormone levels in young adolescents: Concurrent and predictive perspectives

The purpose of this study was to test hypotheses regarding (1) relations among negative affect and hormones of gonadal and adrenal origin in young adolescents, at three times of measurement, over a one-year period; and (2) stability of negative affect. The sample consisted of 10- to 14-year-old boys (N=56) and 9- to 14-year-old girls (N=52). The adolescents were assessed three times at 6-month intervals over one year. Serum levels of gonadotropins, gonadal steroids, adrenal androgens, and cortisol were assessed, as well as stage of pubertal development (Tanner criteria). The negative affect assessments consisted of self-report questionnaire and interview measures of anxiety and depressive affect, as well as mother reports of internalizing behavior problems. In the concurrent (cross-sectional) analyses, boys reporting higher levels of negative affect tended to be those at higher genital stage or older age, with lower testosterone and cortisol levels and lower dehydroepian-drosterone sulphate levels. In the longitudinal analyses, negative affect, and to a lesser extent hormone levels at the first time of measurement predicted negative affect 12 months later. The findings suggest that puberty-related hormone levels should be considered along with psychological characteristics in examining the processes involved in the development of negative affect during the pubertal years.Received Ph.D. from The Pennsylvania State University. Research interests include hormone-behavior interactions and emotional development.Received Ph.D. from The Pennsylvania State University. Research interests include neuroendocrinology and adolescent depression.Recieved M.D. from Athens University. Research interests include hypothalamic releasing factors and stress.     

Body image satisfaction,dieting beliefs,and weight loss behaviors in adolescent girls and boys

Body image and weight loss beliefs and behaviors were assessed in 341 female and 221 male high school students. Estimates of body dissatisfaction varied depending on the measurement strategy used. Despite having similar weight distributions around the expected norm, girls were significantly more dissatisfied with their bodies than boys. Body Mass Index was positively related to body dissatisfaction in girls and boys, while higher exercise levels were related to higher body satisfaction in boys. Nearly two-thirds of girls and boys believed being thinner would have an impact on their lives, but the majority of girls believed this would be positive while the majority of boys believed this would be negative. Thirteen percent of female subjects reported using one or more extreme weight loss behavior at least weekly. Beliefs regarding the effectiveness of different weight loss measures were assessed. Weight loss behaviors in this Australian sample appear similar to comparable U.S. samples.Received Ph.D. from University of Tasmania. Main research interest in body image, weight loss behaviors, and eating disorders.Received Ph.D. from University of Connecticut. Main research interest in body image, eating disorders and weight loss behaviors.Dietitian degree from Melbourne University, Melbourne. Main research interest in eating practices and clinical outcome.M.D. from University of Melbourne, D.P.M. from U.K. FRC Psych. Main research interests in eating disorders.B.B.Sc.(Hons.) received from La Trobe University, Melbourne, B.A. received from University of Minnesota, Duluth. Main research interest in attitudes and attributions.B.A. Received from University of Minnesota, Duluth. Main research interest in adolescence and eating disorders.     

Swings and gerrymanders

It is usual for electoral analysts to calculate the swing necessary at the next election to unseat a government, assuming that the swing is a uniform one. However, swings are not uniform. The non-uniform swing which would, on average, unseat a government is shown to be different from the uniform swing. For example, at the next Australian election for the House of Representatives, a uniform swing of 1.5 per cent against the current government would cause it to lose five seats, leaving it in a minority of 73 out of 148 seats, but a non-uniform swing of only 0.8 per cent would, on average, have the same effect. Implications of this variability for the size of the majority, the possibilities of a Parliament with an even number of seats being equally-divided, and the use of this analysis to detect gerrymandering and to correct for it, are considered.     

After the cold war

He is co-editor (with Kenneth W. Thompson) of Truth and Tragedy: A Festschrift for Hans J. Morgenthau,and editor of The Political Morality of the IMF.He is currently writing a book on Understanding Ethics.