AGE,DIFFERENTIAL EXPECTATIONS,AND CRIME DESISTANCE*

We specify an individual-level model linking crime desistance to estimates of legal risk, differential expectations, degree of past success at legitimate and criminal pursuits, and age. OLS and logistic regression procedures are used to estimate the model using longitudinal data on serious, previously imprisoned offenders. As predicted, age decreases estimates of the likely payoffs from crime and legitimate employment. Contrary to predictions, age is unrelated to the perceived legal risk of renewed criminal participation. Age, past success at avoiding confinement, expectations of success from crime, and level of education are significant predictors of crime desistance. Neither the perceived legal risk of crime nor expectations of success through straight pursuits significantly predict desistance. We suggest an interpretation for these anomalous findings.     

Book reviews

Journal of Chinese Political Science -     

浅析韩国的绿色增长战略

绿色增长正在成为世界谋求经济社会可持续发展的重要经济模式,各国都在寻求实现绿色增长的发展战略。1997亚洲金融风暴、2008年以来的世界性经济衰退促使积极探索经济转型新路的韩国加快了战略转型的步伐。韩国政府为此提出并开始实施“低碳绿色增长战略”,制订并发表了“绿色增长国家战略与五年计划”以及相关的法规,详细阐述了韩国推进这一战略计划的长远规划、战略目标、实施计划、政策措施等,并建立了从中央到地方的组织实施机构。韩国积极推动的绿色增长战略充分揭示了其未来经济发展的基本方向,意在谋求实现经济增长方式的转变、构建未来经济长期稳定发展的新增长模式和动力。