Modelling peruvian debt rescheduling in the 1980s

International debt rescheduling has continued to be a crucial issue in the international political economy. This article develops a political-economic model to examine debt rescheduling between private banks and debtors. The model provides a means of developing bargaining games by allowing the analyst to deduce game payoffs based on actors' “individual situations” as defined by their overall capabilities, their debt-specific resources, and their coalitional stability. Based on these games, it predicts the likely bargaining outcomes in terms of the degree to which banks will make lending concessions and the degree to which debtors will agree to adjust their economies. The model is operationalized based on written sources and interviews and then applied to four periods of rescheduling between the banks and Peru from 1982 to 1990. It proves successful in predicting bargaining outcomes in these cases, and we argue that it should prove helpful in investigating other debt bargaining episodes. Vinod K. Aggarwal is associate professor of political science and affiliated professor in the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. He is the author ofLiberal Protectionism: The International Politics of Organized Textile Trade (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press),International Debt Threat (Berkeley: Institute for International Studies), and articles on the politics of trade and finance. His forthcoming book is entitledDebt Games: Strategic Interaction in International Debt Rescheduling Maxwell A. Cameron is assistant professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University. He is the author ofDemocracy and Authoritarianism in Peru: Political Coalitions and Social Change (New York: St. Martin's Press, forthcoming), as well as a number of articles on Peruvian politics. He recently coeditedThe Political Economy of North American Free Trade (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993) with Ricardo Grinspun.     

Challenges to Property Rate Administration in the Offinso South Municipality,Ghana

Decentralized governments in Ghana have not been able to realize optimum benefits from their property tax potentials. The paper investigates the administration of property taxation in Ghana using the Offinso South Municipality (OSM) as a study area. Questionnaires were relied on to garner data from property owners in the municipality. It observed that low coverage and collection ratios, inadequate collection modes, and negative public perceptions have worked against the administration of property tax in the OSM. The paper suggests a complete overhaul of the property rate regime in the OSM if the buoyancy of property tax revenue is to be realized. It argues that the rating authority should purge the system of perceived corruptions. It suggests a revamp of the property rate collection means in order to slump rent seeking behavior of the mobile property rate collectors.     

Trust in Government Among British Muslims: The Importance of Migration Status

This article engages debates about Muslim integration in Western societies by analyzing trust in government among British Muslims. A central finding of the article is that British Muslims are more likely than Christians to have high levels of trust in government. To account for these outcomes, I highlight the importance of general political satisfaction and political efficacy as opposed to the more specifically assimilation and segregation-related variables identified by the literature on minority attitudes. In addition, I posit that Muslims are more likely to have positive political attitudes because they are more likely than Christians to be migrants and migrants are more likely than natives to have optimistic evaluations of British society. I claim that these migration dynamics help account for much of the attitudinal differences between Muslims and Christians.     

On flexible containment

The doctrine of containment has been a principal element of American foreign policy for four decades. But there has been a major change in the Communist world; it is no longer a monolithic bloc. Many Marxist governments, including some Communist regimes, are not satellites or allies of the Soviets. Indeed, some are more anti‐Soviet than many noncommunist states. Yugoslavia and China do not serve Soviet expansionism; their security and economic interests are closer to the West. More and more Communist regimes, faced with mounting social and economic difficulties, must turn to the West, which has so much more to offer in the economic and technological spheres. Consequently, differentiation and disintegration within the Communist alliances are inevitable. Pluralism in the Western democracies is a source of strength. In despotic countries and blocs, pluralism would sound the death knell of tyranny and of despotic centralization.

The emergence of Gorbachev as a dynamic leader flexible in his relations with noncommunist countries makes the rigid containment practices of the postwar decades decidedly outdated and counterproductive. The international chessboard has become a game of movement, sensitivity, and subtlety. Consequently, the United States should use in its international relations the concept of pluralism that we have used so successfully at home. This means differentiation among the various Marxist regimes, calibrating our policy with flexibility toward each country's policy and situation affect our national interests.     

The Kingmaker is Dead,Long Live the Kingmaker: Examining the Degree of Influence of Small Parties in the Coalition-formation Process in Germany

This article examines the role of small parties in the German party system. It thus attempts to make a contribution to a largely under-researched topic in the existing literature. The goal is to determine the influence and ultimately the pivotal role of small parties over time both federally and in each Land (1949–2010). For that purpose we develop a five-point ‘opportunity structure’ scale. During the heyday of West Germany's two-and-a-half-party system (from the early 1960s to the early 1980s) the FDP was not just the main small party but the pivotal kingmaker at least federally, deciding which of the major parties (CDU/CSU or SPD) would be in government. Since then the Greens and later the PDS/die Linke have also become durable small parties and play an important role in the government formation process. The analysis shows that based on our measure the Greens have at least equalled if not surpassed the FDP as the country's most influential small party since they emerged on the political scene in the early 1980s.     

Hypnotic interrogation,pretrial preparation,and witness testimony during direct and cross-examination

Subjects who witnessed a videotaped shooting were interrogated immediately after viewing the film and again several days later. Before their second interrogation half of the subjects received hypnotic suggestions for enhanced recognition. Hypnotic and nonhypnotic subjects failed to differ in the accuracy with which they identified a mugshot of the offender, but hypnotic subjects placed more confidence in their misidentifications than did nonhypnotic subjects. In a third session, subjects who had identified a mugshot returned to be examined and cross-examined in a mock courtroom setting. Before direct examination, half the subjects underwent pretrial preparation aimed at building confidence. When coupled with pretrial preparation, hypnotic interrogation led subjects to express relatively high certainty in their mugshot identification while testifying. Nevertheless, hypnotic interrogation did not deter witnesses from disavowing their testimony (i.e., breaking down) during cross-examination. In contrast, pretrial preparation induced substantial resistance to breakdown during cross-examination. Implications are discussed.This research was supported by a grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada to the first author.     

Diversion from youth courts in five Asia Pacific jurisdictions: welfare or restorative solutions

Since the 1970s, there has been a trend to move away from punitive and retributive approaches to reintegrative practices. This article provides an account of how young offenders in five Asia Pacific jurisdictions are diverted from being prosecuted in the youth courts and of to where they are diverted. The five cases demonstrate that diversionary measures in the Australasian jurisdictions tend to be more restorative in their practices than are those in Chinese-dominated jurisdictions, which adopt welfare responses. It is concluded that although there is some progress in the areas of decarceration and delegalization, the diversion goals of decategorization and deprofessionalization in Chinese-dominated jurisdictions have yet to be achieved. Such diversionary strategies carry the risk that many more young people committing minor offences may be subject to more intrusive measures and disguised social control in the name of diversion, welfare, or the prevention of future offending.     

Managed competition versus industrial purchasing of health care among the Fortune 500

The theory of managed competition has found favor with many health policy analysts and academic economists alike. Three characteristics--consumer choice, defined contribution, and dissemination of information--signal managed competition strategy. By requiring private employers to provide their employees with a choice of health carriers, a fixed-dollar strategy (defined contribution), and quality information to make appropriate choices among carriers, managed competition offers to remedy imperfections in both the consumer and provider sides of the market for health insurance. In an extensive survey of health care purchasing practices among Fortune 500 companies we found that major companies are not using the managed competition approach to health care purchasing. Instead, most of the companies surveyed are purchasing health care in the same way as they do other inputs to production--a pattern we call industrial purchasing.     

Challenges to established parties: The effects of party system features on the electoral fortunes of anti-political-establishment parties

Abstract. The rise of parties that challenge the political establishment has recently sparked the interest of political scientists. Scholars have identified several factors that lie behind the success of such anti-political-establishment parties. Most empirical studies, however, have concentrated their attention either on the importance of electoral system features or on the effects of socioeconomic conditions. This article focuses instead on the role that party system factors play in the electoral success of these parties. Using three data sets from studies conducted in three different time periods it tests two seemingly contradictory hypotheses. On the one hand, the claim that where the established parties have converged toward centrist positions and thus fail to present voters with an identity that is noticeably different from their established competitors, the electorate will be more susceptible to the markedly different policies put forward by anti-political-establishment parties. On the other hand, there is the argument that these parties profit more from increasing polarization and the subsequent enlargement of the political space than from a convergence toward the median. The results of the analyses show that anti-political-establishment parties generally profit from a close positioning of the establishment parties on the left-right scale. However, there is no consistent support for the notion that party system polarization by itself is associated with an increase in the support for parties that challenge the political establishment.