Experimental Intelligence

This article explores the use and application of experimental methodologies in intelligence analysis. Previous experimental work has much to tell us about how people process information in making judgments. Calibration, and how appropriate levels of confidence might be improved with systematic feedback, is addressed. Training around uncertainty biases is covered. Extant experimental work suggests mechanisms and tests which might be used to better screen potential analysts for personality characteristics that might make them more suited for some tasks over others. The paradigm of experimental manipulation serves as a useful template for exploring alternative conceptualizations of uncertain environments.     

Joining it up? Health and Wellbeing Boards in English Local Governance: Evidence from Clinical Commissioning Groups and Shadow Health and Wellbeing Boards

Statutory responsibility for health care and social care has long been separated between National Health Service (NHS) bodies and local government authorities. Repeated policy attempts to promote service integration through collaboration between such authorities have achieved little. The latest of such policy interventions are the Health and Wellbeing Boards (HWBs) established by the 2012 Health and Social Care Act (HSCA) alongside a range of other organisational innovations, including Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). These organisations await full legal and operational status but have begun to develop structures and processes. HWBs are intended to lead the integrated assessment of local needs to inform both NHS health and local authority social care commissioners. We undertook detailed qualitative case studies in eight CCGs during 2011–2012 and here report observational and interview data related to CCGs’ perspectives and observations of early HWB developments. We found that developing HWBs vary greatly in their structure and approach, but we also identified a number of significant issues that are familiar from earlier research into health and social care integration. These include heavy dependence on voluntary agreements to align the strategic plans of the many different new statutory bodies; a significant role for mundane organisational processes in determining the extent of effective co-operation; and problems arising from factors such as size and the arrangements of local boundaries.     

Drug smuggling using clothing impregnated with cocaine

A case study is presented where a woman travelling from South America to the Republic of Ireland was detained at Dublin Airport and articles of clothing she had in her luggage were found to be impregnated with cocaine. The study shows that the amount of powder recovered from the garments was approximately 14% of the total weight of the garments. The cocaine was in the form of cocaine hydrochloride and the purity was approximately 80%. An examination of the garments under filtered light highlighted the areas exposed to cocaine and indicated that the method of impregnation was by pouring liquid containing cocaine onto the clothing.     

General

The Arab Awakening. By George Antonius. 8¾” × 5?”. Pp. 472. Five maps. Hamish Hamilton. 1938. 15s.

Freedom of conscience in the new near east. Some Aspects of Religious Liberty of Nationals in the Near East. A Collection of Documents. By Helen Clarkson Davis. Pp. xviii + 182 and two maps. New York and London: Harper and Brothers. 1938.

Palestine of the Crusades. A Map of the Country on scale 1: 350,000, with Historical Introduction and Gazetteer. Jerusalem : Survey of Palestine. Price 5s.     

The use and abuse of medical intelligence

When a leader suffers from a diminished ability to formulate high quality judgments and decisions, international peace and security may be compromised. Systematic use of medical intelligence on foreign leaders can provide early warning to American leaders about the potential for destabilization in particular regimes where leaders are gravely ill. This information remains particularly important in less democratic governments, where power and decision making remain concentrated in the hands of very few, or even one man, or where an entire governmental structure appears unstable. This paper examines the impact of medical illness in foreign leaders in four cases in American foreign policy: the Shah of Iran; Ferdinand Marcos; Tancredo Neves; and Boris Yeltsin.     

Fear as a Disposition and an Emotional State: A Genetic and Environmental Approach to Out‐Group Political Preferences

Fear is a pervasive aspect of political life and is often explored as a transient emotional state manipulated by events or exploited by elites for political purposes. The psychological and psychiatric literatures, however, have also established fear as a genetically informed trait, and people differ in their underlying fear dispositions. Here we propose these differences hold important implications for political preferences, particularly toward out‐groups. Using a large sample of related individuals, we find that individuals with a higher degree of social fear have more negative out‐group opinions, which, in this study, manifest as anti‐immigration and prosegregation attitudes. We decompose the covariation between social fear and attitudes and find the principal pathway by which the two are related is through a shared genetic foundation. Our findings present a novel mechanism explicating how fear manifests as out‐group attitudes and accounts for some portion of the genetic influences on political attitudes.     

Can Non-state Governance 'Ratchet Up' Global Environmental Standards? Lessons from the Forest Sector

The failure of the worlds' governments to agree on a binding global forest convention at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit led many leading environmental groups to advance eco-labelling 'forest certification' programmes that, they hoped, would achieve greater success in implementing sustainable forest management. Eschewing traditional State-centered authority, supporters of this 'non-State market driven' (NSMD) approach turn to customers of wood products to create compliance mechanisms, either through positive incentives such as market access or price premiums, or negative incentives such as 'direct targeting' or 'boycott' campaigns. Understanding how such systems might 'ratchet up' global forestry standards, we argue, requires that existing scholarship place greater attention on the role of public policies in helping to facilitate the impacts of private solutions. Specifically, we argue that scholars and practitioners need to assess strategic decisions not only on the basis of their appropriateness at present, but what they might do to trigger a global 'race to the top' at a later time.