9/11: The Failure of Strategic Intelligence

Professor Goodman analyses the failure of US intelligence prior to 9/11 setting the context in the 1980s and 1990s. He dissects the flaws of the CIA, FBI and the Pentagon. He argues that the State Department should be strengthened because its capabilities are the most important. He also recommends that the FBI be split in two and that the CIA's budget be disclosed.     

Weighing in on the Issue: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Influence of Selected Individual Factors and the Sports Context on the Developmental Trajectories of Eating Pathology Among Adolescents

Eating disorders, and related issues (e.g., body dissatisfaction, weight control behaviors), represent pressing and prevalent health problems that affect American adolescents with alarming frequency and potentially chronic consequences. However, more longitudinal research is needed to elucidate the developmental processes that increase or maintain risk for, and that protect against, eating- and weight-related problems among adolescents. Accordingly, the current study used longitudinal data from 1,050 male and female (68.0 %) adolescents (Grades 9–11)—the majority of whom were European Americans (72.2 %)—who participated in the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development to (a) describe trajectories of adolescents’ eating pathology and body dissatisfaction, (b) identify individual and contextual correlates of these pathways, (c) examine whether trajectories of eating pathology and body dissatisfaction related to adolescents’ depressive symptoms, and (d) elucidate whether sports participation moderated associations between specific trajectories of eating pathology and body dissatisfaction and adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Results suggest that the diverse pathways of eating pathology and body dissatisfaction that exist across middle adolescence, in combination with adolescents’ sports participation, have important implications for the positive and problematic development of our youth. In addition, the findings underscore the need to evaluate the interindividual differences that exist in regard to how sports participation may relate positively and negatively to developmental outcomes.     

Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message

Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual state of the world message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.This is a revised and abbreviated version of the paper originally prepared for the 1972 meetings of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. We want to acknowledge the important assistance of Hugh Wheeler, the comments and help of John Stuckey, Russell Leng, Stuart Bremer, Catherine Kelleher, and Charles Gochman, and the support of the National Science Foundation under grant no. GS-28476X1.