Russia,Ukraine, and the Imperial Legacy

Three specialists in social services present an assessment of Hungary's performance during the economic transition from the perspective of social policy and the general welfare of the population. Using figures drawn from a variety of European sources, they offer a review of social expenditure, labor market tendencies, and the social security, health and education systems, comparing throughout with data from the Czech Republic, Poland and the European Union.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

Measuring Disparity in Government Procurement: Problems with Using Census Data in Estimating Availability

The Supreme Court's ruling in City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson (1989) has restricted the use of government procurement assistance programs for minorities and women without the prerequisite support of a disparity study. Recently, an increasing number of disparity studies have been rejected by the courts as "junk science" and the related programs have been ruled unconstitutional. A central issue in these cases has been the approach used to estimate the availability of minority and women firms. Data from the Economic Census are commonly used as the basis for these availability estimates. However, there are significant problems and limitations with the Census data relative to the Croson guideline that the availability of women and minority firms should reflect the number of qualified, willing, and able firms. Given the number and difficulty of the required adjustments to the Census data, it is unlikely that these data will provide availability estimates that are accurate enough to allow for valid statistical tests of an inference of discriminatory exclusion. If minimizing court challenges is a goal of the public administrator who is responsible for the program, then the recommendation here is that a primary source of availability data should be considered. Furthermore, the information system needed to support the women and minority assistance programs should be designed and installed prior to initiating the program.     

Shame and Non-suicidal Self-injury: Conceptualization and Preliminary Test of a Novel Developmental Model among Emerging Adults

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is particularly prevalent during adolescence and emerging adulthood. The salience of shame during these developmental periods...