Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message

Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual state of the world message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.This is a revised and abbreviated version of the paper originally prepared for the 1972 meetings of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. We want to acknowledge the important assistance of Hugh Wheeler, the comments and help of John Stuckey, Russell Leng, Stuart Bremer, Catherine Kelleher, and Charles Gochman, and the support of the National Science Foundation under grant no. GS-28476X1.     

Treatment effectiveness for offenders with autism spectrum conditions: a systematic review

Theoretical suppositions suggest a potential vulnerability in some individuals with autism spectrum conditions (ASCs) to displaying offending behaviours. Additionally, it is recognised that the features of ASCs may result in possible barriers to treatment. A systematic review was undertaken to identify empirical evidence examining the effectiveness of treatment programmes for offenders with ASCs and to explore the potential impact of ASC symptoms on treatment outcomes. The studies identified consisted of a small number of case series and a collection of case reports with little or no direct comparisons to offenders without ASCs. A synthesis of the findings highlighted variability in treatment approach and impact. Effectiveness was primarily defined by reduction in further offending behaviours and was found to be variable across the data. The potential relationship between the symptoms of ASCs and treatment outcome was explored with all case reports identifying the need for adaptations to treatment programmes, necessitated by the symptoms of ASCs. This systematic review joins an existing body of literature emphasising need for more controlled research into the effectiveness of offending behaviour treatment programmes for individuals with ASCs, and for further investigation into the impact of the clinical features of ASCs on treatment outcomes.