Party policy equilibrium for alternative spatial voting models: An application to the Norwegian Storting

Abstract In recent years a lively debate has emerged concerning the empirical status of the traditional proximity spatial model versus a directional model of voter choice. The central reason for this scholarly interest concerns these models' contrasting implications for parties' policy positioning, with the directional model motivating parties to present extreme policies, but the proximity model promoting centrist positions. To this point, however, there exist no studies that compute parties' optimal strategies in historical elections, for these competing models. This article addresses this issue, by examining party policy strategies in a multiparty electorate for three different vote models: (a) the proximity model, (b) a directional model (c) a mixed model which combines proximity and directional components. Each model incorporates past voting history and the random effects of unmeasured variables. Using parameter estimates derived from analyses of survey data from the 1989 Norwegian Election Study we compute — for each of these vote models — the configuration of party policy positions that maximize each party's vote share in relation to those of the other parties. We find that for each model, such a vote–maximizing configuration exists, but — for the proximity model — represents an unrealistic, tightly clustered array. A mixed proximity–directional model, however, provides by far the most convincing account of parties' actual policy strategies with regard to dispersion and vote share.     

Military First Doctrine Is Behind North Korea Adventurism

The recurrent crises emanating from North Korea, and the response to them, is testing US‐China relations and drawing the new boundaries of power in East Asia. The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the former South Korean national security advisor address this development.     

The effects of alternative power-sharing arrangements: Do “moderating” institutions moderate party strategies and government policy outputs?

Advocates of consensual political institutions, i.e. institutions that promote compromise and powersharing among political parties, claim that these institutions promote moderation in government policy outputs. To date, however, there exists little research – either theoretical or empirical – that evaluates whether consensual institutions promote moderation in parties' policy declarations. We develop a multiparty spatial model with policy-seeking parties operating under proportional representation, in which we vary the extent to which government policies reflect power-sharing among all parties as opposed to being determined by a single party. We determine parties' optimal (Nash equilibrium) policy positions and conclude that power-sharing does not typically motivate parties to moderate their policy declarations; in fact, policy positioning under power-sharing appears to be similar to or more extreme than under single-party dominance. Consistent with previous research, however, we find that power-sharing does promote moderation in government policy outputs. Our results have implications for parties’ election strategies, for the design of political institutions, and for representative government.     

The effects of pubertal timing on body image,school behavior,and deviance

Variation in the timing of pubertal maturation may result in behavioral differences among early, mid-, and late maturers. Using data from the National Health Examination Survey, a national probability sample of children and youth aged 12–17, we investigated the relationships between maturational timing and body image, school behavior, and deviance. In terms of body image, the early maturing boys were the group most satisfied with height and weight. The early maturing girls were most dissatisfied with weight, with 69% wishing to be thinner. This great dissatisfaction with weight reported by early maturing girls is probably not an affect of early maturation, but a concomitant of maturation in general. The majority of girls became dissatisfied with their weight as they matured, and females from the higher social groups were more likely to want to be thinner than females from lower groups. Thus, a normal developmental process is being viewed negatively by females and positively by males. Male early maturers more often had deviant behavior, but there were no consistent findings for girls. There was no effect of maturational timing on teacher reports of school absence, adjustment, popularity, need for discipline, or grade repetition.This research was supported by the Stanford Center for the Study of Youth Development and by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.Received M.D. from The Medical College of Pennsylvania.Received Ph.D. in anthropology from Stanford University.Received Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Chicago.Received M.D. from Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons.Received Ph.D. in psychology from Harvard University.