A Mixture Model for the Number of Gunshot Residues Found on Suspects' Hands

Quantifying the strength of gunshot residue (GSR) evidence requires scientific knowledge about the number of particles expected to be found on individuals who were or were not involved in a shooting. However, controlled experiments demand expensive resources in terms of microscope time and labor, which restricts the data of most studies to only a small group of individuals. We suggest a novel method that exploits data collected routinely on suspects during the daily work of forensic laboratories. These observational data relate to both persons who were involved in a shooting and innocent individuals. We suggest a mixture approach with different models for the number of gunshot residue particles in each group and develop an iterative algorithm to estimate the probabilities of observing the evidence under the defense proposition that the suspect is innocent and under the prosecution assumption that he is not. The method is applied to data of more than 500 suspects collected by the Israel National Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science. The analysis shows that the probability of finding three or more GSR particles on the hands of innocent suspects is very small, less than 1.5 in 1000 cases. Our new method enables researchers to use data on real cases, possibly supplemented by experimental data, in order to estimate the probabilities of a given GSR finding under the defense and prosecution propositions.     

Getting Out the Vote With Voting Advice Applications

This article investigates the mobilization potential of online voter information tools known as “Voting Advice Applications” (VAAs). We argue that an observational approach utilizing survey data constitutes the best available method for causal inference where VAAs are popular—and we are thus most interested in VAA turnout effects—because randomized experiments are likely to run into double cross-over problems. We suggest that matching offers key improvements over existing methods to tackle self-selection into VAA use in observational studies. To improve confidence in selection on observables, we complement matching estimates with an extensive sensitivity analysis, including a placebo test. Empirically, we study the effect of smartvote, a popular VAA from Switzerland, on turnout in the 2007 Swiss federal election. We find that smartvote usage significantly increased the individual-level probability to vote. Our results suggest that smartvote was, on the aggregate, responsible for about 1.2 % points of the total tally with an estimated cost of nine Swiss Francs (7.5 U.S. dollars or 1.4 “Big Macs”) per additional vote. Promising as well, we find that the mobilization effect was more pronounced among younger voters. Our findings point to the value of VAAs compared to traditional get out the vote tactics.     

KEEPING SODA IN SNAP: Understanding the Other Iron Triangle

Participants in SNAP have always been allowed to use their taxpayer-funded benefit to purchase Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSBs). Despite an acute public health crisis surrounding the consumption of unhealthy products including SSBs, especially among the low-income citizens who also qualify for SNAP benefits, this policy has yet to be changed. Interviews with policy participants in Washington, D.C., reveal that change is being blocked by a culture of “personal responsibility” in America, plus three specific political forces: corporate lobbying primarily by the beverage and food retail industries; a desire by liberals to defend SNAP as income support for the poor even if nutrition outcomes are sub-optimal; and institutional inertia within the Department of Agriculture and the agricultural committees of Congress. In the 2018 farm bill debate, this “iron triangle” of bipartisan resistance to change was strong enough to block even a pilot study of SSB restrictions in SNAP.     

Gender Pay Gap in Poland

In this paper we examine the gender pay gap in Poland over 1987–1996, i.e., shortly before and during the transition to market economy. The principle source of data used throughout the paper is the Household Budget Survey conducted by the Polish Central Statistical Office. The study documents three major results. First, the transition to market economy in Poland favored women substantially in terms of relative earnings differentials. The gender pay gap decreased by 10.2 log% points and the position of mean female in male wage distribution went up by 9.9 percentiles over 1987–1996. By 1995, the values of these measures reached the level observed in industrial economies such as the U.K., Austria, Italy or Australia. Second, rising relative skills of women and rising returns to skills explain about half of the fall in the gender pay gap over 1987–1996. Third, the pay gap did not follow a smooth adjustment process. 1989, the year of the first democratic parliamentary elections, which resulted in forming the first non-communist government, saw the most spectacular change, although actual market reforms began one year after. The changes in the early phase of the transition were mostly driven by sudden shifts in relative wages and employment across industries. Afterwards, the pay gap measures stabilized, partly because rising overall wage inequalities offset the advantages of females due to observed skills.     

Classical Sāṁkhya on the Relationship between a Word and Its Meaning

The aim of this article is to reconstruct the classical Sā?khya view on the relationship between a word and its meaning. The study embraces all the extant texts of classical Sā?khya, but it is based mainly on the Yuktidīpikā, since this commentary contains most of the fragments which are directly related to the topic of our research. The textual analysis has led me to the following conclusion. It is possible to reconstruct two different and conflicting views on the relationship between a word and its meaning from the classical Sā?khya texts. The first view, the source of which is the Yuktidīpikā, is that all words are conventional in their origin. It resembles the Nyāya-Vai?e?ika theory of the primary linguistic convention and the conventional origin of all words. The second view, which is the implication of the Sā?khya idea of the authorless Vedas we can reconstruct on the basis of the majority of the classical Sā?khya commentaries (including the Yuktidīpikā), is that the relationship between a word and its meaning is natural. This view is probably influenced by Mīmā?sā. Both of these views are hardly compatible with the Sā?khya teaching. It seems like classical Sā?khya, not having created its own detailed theory, oscillated between different conceptions.     

Roman Law in Roman Britain: An Introductory Survey

This article is the first attempt to analyse the condition of Roman law in Roman Britain for more than thirty years. It is intended as an introduction to the subject and a point from which further research can be done. The article briefly describes current knowledge of the effectiveness of Roman law in Roman Britain, relying upon not only traditional Roman law sources but also a large number of epigraphic sources. Based upon an analysis of these, it may be said that Roman law played an important role in the daily life of Roman Britain. It was not only associated with the Roman conquerors, but it was also used by Romanized native inhabitants of the island. It is even possible that the foundations laid down by the Romans influenced the later development of medieval Welsh law.     

Iatrogenic Burns of the Neckline in a Patient with Tetraparesis During Tracheotomy

The paper presents a case of an atypical iatrogenic complication after tracheotomy analyzed on the basis of the case dossier materials submitted to the authors by the court of justice to prepare a forensic medical opinion concerning the correctness of the medical procedure. A 37‐year‐old woman was brought by the ambulance service to the hospital with acute respiratory failure due to post‐tracheostomy tracheal stenosis. Tracheotomy was performed on an emergency basis. The patient suffered severe burns of the chest and neck. The experts concluded that the most probable cause of the incident was electrocautery‐induced ignition of the disinfectant used for cleaning the skin before the surgery. It was established that with correct handling of the procedure, the aforementioned incident should not have taken place. Therefore, it cannot be regarded as a normal complication inherent in the risk associated with the procedure, but as a consequence of a medical error.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Racial Prejudice and Support for the Death Penalty: The Racist Punitive Bias Hypothesis

Many studies have shown that there are significant racial disparities in the application of death penalties. In this paper, three studies (N = 484, 94% female), conducted in France, test and explore why racial prejudice and support for the death penalty (SDP) are strongly and positively related. First, prejudice against Arabs remains a significant predictor of SDP, even when ethnocentrism/authoritarianism (Study 1) and Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA; Study 2) are statistically controlled. Second, the attribution of criminal traits to Arabs (Study 1) or criminality-based prejudice (Studies 2 and 3) significantly mediates the relationship between racial prejudice and SDP. Finally, a path analysis illustrates that two relatively independent processes could explain the relationship between prejudice towards Arabs and SDP: criminality-based prejudice leading to specific SDP for Arabs and Social Dominance Orientation (Study 3). Together, these results provide support for the racist punitive bias hypothesis. When racist people think about questions of crime and punishment, they frame the issue in racial terms, leading them to support a punitive law which in their minds will mainly punish minority racial groups.