The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment

This paper reviews the literature on the communication policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) addressing two questions. First, to what extent has ECB communication affected interest rates? Second, to what extent has ECB communication affected the predictability of the ECB’s interest rate decisions? On the basis of a survey of empirical studies, it is concluded that various forms of ECB communication lead to more volatility. However, studies focusing on volatility cannot assess whether markets moved in the intended direction. To analyze whether this is the case, researchers have coded ECB communications. Studies using this approach yield evidence that communications generally move financial markets in the intended direction. There is also substantive evidence that ECB communications increase the predictability of interest decisions by the ECB Governing Council. Finally, the consequences of the fact that ECB officials often gave contrasting signals to market participants are analyzed. New evidence suggests that inconsistent communication causes agents to make less accurate predictions. The policy implication is that central bankers should take care that their statements are consistent.     

论创新党员学习机制

建设学习型政党，要求各级党组织引导党员立足本职，带头学习、加强学习、终身学习，使学习成为一种经常化、普遍化和制度化的行为。这就要从创新学习理念、学习制度、学习载体、学习工具等四个方面入手，探索创新党员长效学习机制，为建设学习型政党提供坚实的机制保证。     

Forensic applications of stable isotope analysis: Case studies of the origins of water in mislabeled beer and contaminated diesel fuel

This paper describes the use of oxygen (¹⁸O) isotope analysis of water contained in two different materials — beer and diesel fuel — involved in the resolution of two separate cases. In the first case study, it was possible to demonstrate that a sample of beer labelled as premium brand in fact belonged to a cheap brand. The second case related to the contamination of diesel fuel from a service station. The diesel fuel contained visible amounts of water, which caused vehicles that had been filled up with it to become defective. For insurance purposes, it was necessary to determine the source of water. The δ¹⁸O values for the water of nearly all samples of diesel was close to the δ¹⁸O of local tap water at the filling station.     

Post-mortem stability and redistribution of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT)

Post-mortem diagnosis of chronic alcohol abuse is a challenge for forensic experts due to the lack of pathognomonic morphological findings and often also inadequate background information. Objective methods demonstrating chronic excessive alcohol consumption would therefore be a useful tool for forensic pathologists. In clinical practice, several markers of chronic alcohol abuse have recently been introduced, among which carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) is the most accepted, but the use of these markers in autopsy has not yet been established. We examined post-mortem stability and possible post-mortem redistribution of CDT and compared two analytical methods, capillary zone electrophoresis and high-performance liquid chromatography. According to our results, CDT remains stable for an appreciable time after death. The results further indicate that CDT is not subject to major post-mortem redistribution.     

Population data of 10 Y-chromosomal STR Loci in Cebu province, Central Visayas (Philippines)

Population: 103 unrelated male individuals from Cebu province, Central Visayas region of the Philippines.     

Personal Identification by Morphometric Analyses of Intra‐Oral Radiographs of Unrestored Teeth*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to work out a biometric method for personal identification by comparing simulated antemortem and postmortem digital radiographs of unrestored teeth. Intra‐oral radiographs of the inferior right first molar, without restorations, were acquired at two different times in 70 subjects using a standardized technique followed by a morphometric analysis. The program automatically supplied values of the absolute distances, relative distances, shape factors, moments, perimeter values, and the areas of the triangles, which were obtained by joining key reference points. The values for the homologous samples were compared with the heterologous samples. Statistical analysis was then carried out, resulting in a section point value of 0.9992. Higher correlation coefficients indicate positive identification, with less than 2% risk of false positives, and approximately 3% of false negatives. We have also tested the method on dental records from 30 patients in order to demonstrate the specificity and sensitivity of the system.     

Ethnicity, trust, and acceptance of authority among police officers

This article examines the factors that influence the willingness of police officers to comply with decisions made by police command staff. In particular, this research focuses on the extent to which officer ethnicity interacts with perceptions of procedural justice in influencing officer compliance. The data for this study were drawn from an anonymous mailed survey (n = 648) examining officer attitudes toward the complaint investigation process in one large municipal police department. Structural equation modeling demonstrates that ethnicity does influence officer compliance, but only weakly and indirectly. Latino/a officers are less likely to report trust in police internal affairs than White officers, and thus somewhat less likely report that they are willing to comply with command staff decisions. Other factors, such as morale, perceptions of procedural justice, and rank, prove to be much more powerful predictors of officer compliance than ethnicity.