Electoral Selection with Parties and Primaries

We develop a model of intraparty candidate selection under partisan electoral competition and voter uncertainty. Candidates for office belong to parties, which are factions of ideologically similar candidates. Each party’s candidate for a general election can be selected either by a “centralized” mechanism that effectively randomizes over possible candidates or by voters in a primary election. The electorate cares about ideology and valence, and both primary and general elections may reveal candidate valences. Our main theoretical result is that while primaries raise the expected quality of a party’s candidates, they may hurt the ex ante preferred party in a competitive electorate by increasing the chances of revealing the opposing party’s candidates as superior. Thus, primaries are adopted in relatively extreme districts where a clear favorite party exists. An empirical analysis of the adoption of direct primaries and the competitiveness of primary elections across U.S. states supports these predictions.     

Can peace be purchased? A sectoral-level analysis of aid��s influence on transnational terrorism

Does foreign aid reduce terrorism? We examine whether foreign aid decreases terrorism by analyzing whether aid targeted toward certain sectors is more effective than others. We use the most comprehensive databases on foreign aid and transnational terrorism??AidData and ITERATE??to provide a series of statistical tests. Our results show that foreign aid decreases terrorism especially when targeted toward sectors, such as education, health, civil society, and conflict prevention. These sector-level results indicate that foreign aid can be an effective instrument in fighting terrorism if allocated in appropriate ways.     

Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials

This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.     

Accounting for Future Generations: Intergenerational Equity in Australia1

Australian governments have published three intergenerational reports since 2002. In line with a general international trend these reports pointed to a problem said to arise from an ageing population which exposes Australia to the risk of a future major fiscal crisis. In this article we argue that by failing to use a generational accounting framework, the reports privilege the elderly at the expense of young people. Added to this, they fail to engage any discussion of intergenerational equity defined as distributive fairness and justice. In this article we explore the value of various approaches to intergenerational justice, focusing on the Principle of Intergenerational Neutrality derived from Rawls' theory of justice. We argue that this does not work as well from a policy point of view as Sen's freedom‐as‐capabilities approach. We conclude that linking Sen's approach to justice to a generational accounting will enable governments to address future issues of equity.     

Use of the global positioning system in the field recovery of scattered human remains

This study examines the Global Positioning System (GPS) as a tool for field mapping of scattered human remains or other materials in forensic investigations. Two aspects of the GPS are considered: (1) the level of accuracy that can be obtained using a mid-priced GPS unit, and (2) the effectiveness of using the GPS to map scattered materials. The positional accuracy of the GPS receiver was tested using a National Geodetic Survey (NGS) point located in Baton Rouge, LA. The utility of the GPS for mapping was investigated by setting up a mock field recovery and mapping the remains using both the GPS and traditional archeological methods. The results indicate that the positional error for a single location using GPS was less than one-half meter. However, when multiple positions were considered, the data produced on different days were not consistent. Further, the GPS receiver used in this study could not distinguish items in close association. Factors such as tree cover density, the proximity of the materials to structures or trees, and satellite positioning contributed to the erratic data. These results indicate that traditional techniques and photographs are still indispensable for mapping scattered remains or artifacts.     

Sevoflurane concentrations in blood, brain, and lung after sevoflurane-induced death

Sevoflurane concentrations in blood, brain, and lung were measured in an individual apparently dying from sevoflurane inhalation. Sevoflurane is a volatile nonflammable fluorinated methyl isopropyl ether inhaled anesthetic, chemically related to desflurane and isoflurane. The incidence of abuse of sevoflurane is lower than that of other drugs of abuse possibly due to its inaccessibility to the general public and less pleasurable and addicting effects. The dead subject was an anesthetist found prone in bed holding an empty bottle of sevoflurane (Ultane). Serum, urine, and liver were screened for numerous drugs and metabolites using enzyme immunoassays and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Analysis did not reveal presence of any drug, including ethanol, other than sevoflurane. Sevoflurane was determined by headspace gas chromatography and revealed concentrations of 15 microg/mL in blood and 130 mg/kg in brain and lung. Autopsy revealed pulmonary edema and frothing in the lung, pathological findings associated with death by sevoflurane or hypoxia. The cause of death was ruled as sevoflurane toxicity and the manner of death as accident.     

Forensic issues in cases of Diogenes syndrome

Diogenes syndrome is a syndrome described in the clinical literature in elderly individuals characterized by social isolation and extreme squalor. A number of typical features are found in the forensic evaluation of these deaths as the cases usually initiate medicolegal investigations due to the circumstances and the lack of recorded medical histories. Examinations of the death scenes are often difficult as victim's houses are in a state of disrepair, with filth and clutter, and pet dogs may resent the intrusion of strangers. Bodies are often filthy, with parasitic infestations, and are often putrefied due to the social isolation of the deceased and the delay in the finding of the corpse. Bodies may be traumatized from postmortem animal depredation by rodents or pets (eg, cats, dogs), and injuries such as bruises and lacerations may be present from falls associated with terminal illnesses or alcoholism. Blood or putrefactive fluids may be spread throughout the house by pets. Treatable medical conditions are often present in advanced stages, and features of hypothermia may be found. Attending police may suspect robbery due to disarray of the house and homicide due to apparent "bleeding" around the body from purging of putrefactive fluids, injuries from falls, or postmortem animal activity and "blood stains" throughout the house from antemortem injuries and/or fluid spread by animals. Finally, the identification of the deceased may be compromised by decay and/or postmortem animal activity. Thus, in addition to having typical clinical manifestations, such individuals appear to form a distinct subset of forensic cases having characteristic death scene and autopsy features and presenting particular difficulties in postmortem evaluations.     

Regulating Supply Chains to Improve Health and Safety

The fragmentation of previously integrated systems of productionand service delivery has been an important feature of organisationalrestructuring over the last three decades. This article highlightsthe adverse implications of this development for the healthand safety of workers, examines the extent to which currentBritish health and safety law provides an adequate frameworkfor addressing these outcomes and explores whether its capacityto do so could be enhanced through the introduction of new statutoryprovisions on the regulation of supply chains. It concludesthat, in terms of both structure and operation, the presentframework of law is problematic. It further argues that recentinternational initiatives show that it is feasible to developsuch statutory provisions and that existing evidence suggeststhat provisions of this type could usefully be introduced inrespect of a number of areas of activity where the implicationsof the externalisation of production and service delivery seemparticularly problematic.     

Beschwerdelegitimation vor den Verwaltungsgerichten

Ohne Zusammenfassung