Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

Weltanschauung und ihre soziale Basis im Spiegel eidgenössischer Volksabstimmungen

Dank regelmässigen Volksbefragungen sind in der Schweiz detaillierte Rückschlüsse auf die Wertkonflikte in der Gesellschaft und die diesen Wertkonflikten zu Grunde liegenden Weltanschauungen möglich. Das Aufdecken der weltanschaulichen Differenzierung und ihrer sozialen Hintergründe ist das Ziel dieses Beitrags. Der hierzu neu entwickelte induktive Ansatz besteht aus der Verbindung einer quantitativen Aggregatanalyse auf Gemeindebasis mit einer qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse aller 158 eidgenössischen Abstimmungsvorlagen zwischen 1981 und 1999. Die aufgedeckte Struktur der Weltanschauung setzt sich aus den drei Komponenten Links gegen Rechts, Liberal gegen Konservativ und Ökologisch gegen Technokratisch zusammen. Durch die konsequente mehrdimensionale Betrachtung sind wichtige aktuelle politische Auseinandersetzungen als Zusammenspiel dieser drei Komponenten erkennbar. Der so gebildete Raum der Weltanschauungen dient als geschlossenes Modell zur Analyse der Entwicklungen und Interdependenzen von sozialen Gräben und politischen Konflikten. Die analytische Trennung der materiellen gesellschaftlichen Ebene von der ideellen weltanschaulichen Ebene, lässt Schlüsse von politischem Wandel auf sozialen Wandel und umgekehrt von sozialem Wandel auf politischen Wandel zu.     

Sozialpolitik im Finanzföderalismus – Hartz IV als Antwort auf die Krise der Kommunalfinanzen

In the literature on welfare state reforms, continental welfare states like Germany have been considered to be resistant to reform. However, recently scholars started to argue that new reform coalitions and policy learning have led to a major restructuring of the German welfare state. In this article we introduce a third argument into the debate and claim that the recent reforms can only be understood by taking into account the specific structure of welfare state financing in Germany. Focusing on the reform of unemployment benefits we show that the crisis of the widespread cost-shifting practice between the federal budget, the social insurance and local authority budgets contributed to fiscal problems which could ultimately only be resolved by engaging in a fundamental restructuring of the financing architecture of welfare provisions for the long-term unemployed.     

Politikwandel und seine Messung in der vergleichenden Staatstätigkeitsforschung: Konzeptionelle Probleme und mögliche Alternativen

Policy change is an important concept in comparative policy analysis. Despite its central significance, most empirical studies fail to provide clear-cut definitions and measurement of this concept. Against this background, this article evaluates previous scholarship on policy change in the areas of social and environmental policy. We find that most studies use proxies for measuring policy change even though they contradict the basic idea of policy-making activities. Furthermore, studies usually neither capture the complexity of policy change, nor take into the possibility of policy change through dismantling account. Additionally, the empirical focus of most analyses is too narrow, thereby impeding robust statements about causality. In response to these shortcomings, we propose a new conceptual perspective, which captures policy change as a broader empirical phenomenon. We discuss its advantages as well as its disadvantages and show the implications for the research process.     

Dimensionen der Disproportionalität – Erststimmen und Direktmandate in den Bundestagswahlen von 1953 bis 2009

This article looks at how candidate votes have been translated into district mandates in the plurality tier of Germany’s mixed electoral system in all Bundestags-elections since 1953. Two questions in particular are addressed: How has disproportionality changed over time? And: What are the main determinants of disproportionality? To answer these two questions the article employs a modified version of the cube rule that accounts for the fact that the number of district parties in a mixed electoral system is higher than in a pure majoritarian system. The article identifies the effective number of district parties as the most important determinant of the disproportional translation of candidate votes into district mandates, i. e., the higher the number of district parties, the less proportional the translation.     

Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System der BRD – ein unbekanntes Wesen?

This article argues that the Judicialization hypothesis as a dominant research paradigm in the literature on the Bundesverfassungsgericht leaves out a number of relevant aspects. Rather, the court should be understood as being embedded in an area of competing interests among government, opposition, courts, litigating citizens and public opinion. The article identifies the institutional links between actors and relevant research questions. Finally, it discusses the theoretical, methodological and empirical challenges for further research on the Bundesverfassungsgericht.     

Verfassungsschranken und die Privatisierung öffentlicher Dienstleistungen im internationalen Vergleich

This paper examines the impact of constitutional barriers on the privatisation of public utilities in 21 OECD-countries between 1980 and 2009. We present new and improved indicators for privatisation and constitutional barriers. Three empirical findings stand out: First, national privatisation trajectories differ across both countries and sectors. Second, there is a significant cross-national variation in terms of constitutional provisions related to public utilities which, thirdly, constitute important impediments to privatisation.     

How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs

Previous methods of analyzing the substance of political attention have had to make several restrictive assumptions or been prohibitively costly when applied to large-scale political texts. Here, we describe a topic model for legislative speech, a statistical learning model that uses word choices to infer topical categories covered in a set of speeches and to identify the topic of specific speeches. Our method estimates, rather than assumes, the substance of topics, the keywords that identify topics, and the hierarchical nesting of topics. We use the topic model to examine the agenda in the U.S. Senate from 1997 to 2004. Using a new database of over 118,000 speeches (70,000,000 words) from the Congressional Record , our model reveals speech topic categories that are both distinctive and meaningfully interrelated and a richer view of democratic agenda dynamics than had previously been possible.