The Evolution of the Centre-right and the State of Scottish Conservatism

This article considers the decline of Scottish Conservatism, 1951–97. The statistical data indicate that 91 percent of the variance in Tory support is accounted for by an underlying negative trend against time, that similar patterns appear when the data is disaggregated by region, and that short-term fluctuations have been more in conformity with English results than is conventionally understood. The process of generational change is seen as a waning of the cultural conditions which produced the centre-right coalition that dominated Scottish politics, 1931–64, and its fragmentation into Conservatism, Liberalism, and Scottish Nationalism. The changed circumstances are not seen as peculiarly Scottish, but the consequences for Scottish Conservatism of an evolution affecting the centre-right across the United Kingdom.     

THE ROARING SILENCE: FEMINIST REVISIONS IN THE EDUCATIONAL POLICY LITERATURE

Absent from assessments of feminism's influence on the academy and the disciplines is an evaluation of the impact of feminist thought on policy research. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate feminist scholarship's presence in the core policy and higher education journals. The first section of the paper explains why it is important to consider the influence of feminism on the policy literature. This is followed by a discussion of what is meant by feminism in the context of this paper. The third section presents the methodology used in evaluating the literature. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings and implications     

The future of Tibet: A Chinese dilemma

Conclusion In a recent speech Amartya Sen argued that democracy had become a universal value. He argued that at this time the burden is on those who would deny democracy to justify their position. He argued that this was a historic change from not long ago when the advocates for democracy in Aisa or Africa had to argue for democracy with their backs to the wall. In Asia, China has historically championed the fight against imperialism and has celebrated the fact the the Chinese people have stood up to take their much-deserved place in the world. For China, which as worked so assertively to bring its nation into the modern world, it is a sign of failure if Tibetans, and even Chinese, have to continue to argue for genuine democracy and self-government with their backs against the wall. The Tibetans really face no dilemma since they are offered no choice except to defend their basic interest. But at present the Chinese leaders face a profound dilemma whether to embrace the modern values that are consistent with their own development and reform process or to continue to defy, especially in respect of Tibet, the very values they have championed in their relationships with the rest of the world. It is with regard to these universal values, against imperialism and in favor of democracy and self-rule, that solutions to the Tibetan problem should be found. To subjugate the Tibetan people is not only inconsistent with contemporary values but is also in contradiction of the pressures for change being spawned by China’s own emerging order in its reform era. It is within China’s power at present to set about solving the issues it confronts with Tibet. It can do so in ways that are consistent with its long-term developmetn interests or, alternatively, insist on old style imperial domination at the long-term costs of fostering a territorial and political structure for development that is inadequate both for itself and Tibet.     

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

Weltanschauung und ihre soziale Basis im Spiegel eidgenössischer Volksabstimmungen

Dank regelmässigen Volksbefragungen sind in der Schweiz detaillierte Rückschlüsse auf die Wertkonflikte in der Gesellschaft und die diesen Wertkonflikten zu Grunde liegenden Weltanschauungen möglich. Das Aufdecken der weltanschaulichen Differenzierung und ihrer sozialen Hintergründe ist das Ziel dieses Beitrags. Der hierzu neu entwickelte induktive Ansatz besteht aus der Verbindung einer quantitativen Aggregatanalyse auf Gemeindebasis mit einer qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse aller 158 eidgenössischen Abstimmungsvorlagen zwischen 1981 und 1999. Die aufgedeckte Struktur der Weltanschauung setzt sich aus den drei Komponenten Links gegen Rechts, Liberal gegen Konservativ und Ökologisch gegen Technokratisch zusammen. Durch die konsequente mehrdimensionale Betrachtung sind wichtige aktuelle politische Auseinandersetzungen als Zusammenspiel dieser drei Komponenten erkennbar. Der so gebildete Raum der Weltanschauungen dient als geschlossenes Modell zur Analyse der Entwicklungen und Interdependenzen von sozialen Gräben und politischen Konflikten. Die analytische Trennung der materiellen gesellschaftlichen Ebene von der ideellen weltanschaulichen Ebene, lässt Schlüsse von politischem Wandel auf sozialen Wandel und umgekehrt von sozialem Wandel auf politischen Wandel zu.     

How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs

Previous methods of analyzing the substance of political attention have had to make several restrictive assumptions or been prohibitively costly when applied to large-scale political texts. Here, we describe a topic model for legislative speech, a statistical learning model that uses word choices to infer topical categories covered in a set of speeches and to identify the topic of specific speeches. Our method estimates, rather than assumes, the substance of topics, the keywords that identify topics, and the hierarchical nesting of topics. We use the topic model to examine the agenda in the U.S. Senate from 1997 to 2004. Using a new database of over 118,000 speeches (70,000,000 words) from the Congressional Record , our model reveals speech topic categories that are both distinctive and meaningfully interrelated and a richer view of democratic agenda dynamics than had previously been possible.