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71.
72.
A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Time series of event counts are common in political scienceand other social science applications. Presently, there arefew satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in suchdata and accounting for the dynamic processes in event countsregression. We address this issue by building on earlier workfor persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weightedmoving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journalof Political Science 44(4):823843, 2000). We developan alternative model for stationary mean reverting data, thePoisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model. Issuesof identification and model selection are also considered. Wethen evaluate the properties of this model and present bothMonte Carlo evidence and applications to illustrate. 相似文献
73.
The position of departmental secretaries has been under debate. There are claims they have been politicised; they have been placed on term appointments. This article examines the careers of departmental secretaries for the last 50 years. It illustrates the changes in their length of tenure, age of departure, mobility and qualifications. The recent profile shows the need for debate about the position and the future of departmental secretaries. 相似文献
74.
Mixed electoral systems seek to combine elements from different voting methods so as to maximise the numbers of individually accountable constituency MPs, while achieving more proportional outcomes in terms of parties' representation. This paper looks in detail at two kinds of mixed systems: variants of the Additional Member System; and AV Plus (or SV Plus). We examine how they would have operated in British conditions during the 1990s—how ballot papers would be structured, how voters respond to them and what electoral outcomes would have resulted. Both approaches offer good prospects for achieving a consensus amongst electoral reformers on an alternative to first-past-the-post elections. We also show how the Jenkins Commission's proposals can be located within the broader development of 'British AMS' by the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. In addition, we quantify the main impacts of the policy choices which the Commission made in designing the proposed system to be submitted to a referendum. The British case will be a key one for the wider debate in political science about the endogenisation of voting system changes within party systems. 相似文献
75.
Patrick C. McKenry Sharon Price-Bonham Shirley L. O'Bryant 《Journal of youth and adolescence》1981,10(5):327-337
Adolescence is perhaps the most difficult period of child rearing for parents. This study attempted to identify disciplinary techniques used by parents as perceived by mothers, fathers, and their adolescent children. Results indicated several significant areas of intrafamilial disagreement in regard to disciplinary techniques utilized, although all subjects tended to agree that some form of verbal reasoning was the primary disciplinary technique utilized with these adolescents.This study was funded, in part, by the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (H-644) and the School of Home Economics, The University of Georgia.Received his Ph.D. in child and family studies from the University of Tennessee. Current interests include adolescent development, family influences on sex-role development, and dual-work families.Received her Ph.D. in sociology from Iowa State University. Major interests include family research methodology, assessment of family power, and marital dissolution.Received her Ph.D. in educational psychology from the University of Texas. Current research interests include parenting, sex roles, and socialization across the life-span. 相似文献
76.
This study was divided into two parts. The first part consisted of an investigation of the frequency of television viewing among a sample of 2302 15-year-olds in 12 comprehensive schools. Subjects were divided into two groups, high and low frequency viewers, according to their own estimate of viewing time. The general picture which emerged (with some overlap of scores) was that high frequency viewers tended to be more neurotic and introverted; less intelligent; had less favorable attitudes to school; were less likely to think sport was important; were more likely to be bored in their leisure time; and possessed different social attitudes than low frequency viewers. The second part of the study investigated the program preferences of a subsample of over 900 subjects drawn from the main study. Little difference was found in the program preferences of high and low frequency viewers, but clear differences of preference were found between the sexes.Received his Ph.D. from the University of Aberdeen. Main research interests include social factors influencing education, adolescence, sports psychology, community education, and social psychology.Received her M.Ed. from the University of Aberdeen. Main research interests include community education and television. 相似文献
77.
The relationship between subjective invulnerability and optimism bias in risk appraisal, and their comparative association
with indices of risk activity, substance use and college adjustment problems was assessed in a sample of 350 (M
age = 20.17; 73% female; 93% White/European American) emerging adults. Subjective invulnerability was measured with the newly
devised adolescent invulnerability scale (AIS). Optimism bias in decision-making was assessed with a standard comparative-conditional
risk appraisal task. Results showed that the danger- and psychological invulnerability subscales of the AIS demonstrated strong
internal consistency and evidence of predictive validity. Subjective invulnerability and optimism bias were also shown to
be empirically distinct constructs with differential ability to predict risk and adjustment. Danger invulnerability and psychological
invulnerability were more pervasively associated with risk behavior than was optimism bias; and psychological invulnerability
counter-indicated depression, self-esteem and interpersonal problems. Results support recent claims regarding the “two faces”
of adolescent invulnerability. Implications for future research are drawn. 相似文献
78.
We describe the forensic science application of a method for quantification of human genomic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). The two cases cited in this report involve DNA samples extracted from skin tissue and bloodstained clothing recovered from different crime scenes. High-molecular-weight DNA was recovered from both specimens, and the concentrations of these DNAs were estimated to be approximately 0.5 microgram/microL by ethidium bromide/agarose gel electrophoresis. Using the human-specific DNA probe p17H8 (locus D17Z1) to quantify the amount of human genomic DNA in these samples, it is shown that less than 1% of the DNA isolated from the skin tissue is of human origin and that the DNA isolated from the bloodstained clothing is effectively devoid of human DNA sequences. These case examples illustrate the need to quantify not only the total amount of DNA recovered from forensic casework material, but also the proportion of the DNA that is of human origin. 相似文献
79.
80.