Variation in central bank independence across countries: Some provisional empirical evidence

In this paper seven hypotheses to explain variation in central bank independence across countries are tested. The predictions based upon the theory that delegation of authority by politicians to the central bank is used as a commitment device are not supported: central bank independence is not higher the larger the employment motivated inflationary bias, the higher political instability or the larger the government debt. Central bank independence is positively related to historical inflation experience and negatively with political instability. We do only find limited support for the view that countries with a universal banking system and countries whose central banks do not regulate financial institutions have more independent central banks.     

POLICY AS A MOVING TARGET: A CALL FOR CONCEPTUAL REALISM

Since the early 1970s, policy scholars have paid great attention to issues of policy implementation, treating it as the "missing link" between policy formulation and results. Most often, policy problems have been seen as static phenomena that can be corrected by carefully specified programs. This paper, drawing upon examples from Swedish energy policy, argues that this is not the case, that political and social conditions are so prone to change that implementation must be a dynamic process if it is to be effective. This has distinct conceptual and practical implications for the study and design of policy implementation.     

Population genetics of nine short tandem repeat loci: allele frequency distribution in a Brazilian population sample

Gene and genotype frequencies in relation to the D3S1358, vWA, FGA, TH01, TPOX, CSF1PO, D5S818, D13S317, and D7S820 loci were determined in a sample of 290 unrelated individuals (204 Caucasians and 86 mulattoes) living in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The sex test Amelogenin was also performed in all subjects from our sample, revealing the expected sex in all instances. Allele frequency data obtained from the analysis of these samples were in the usual range of other population groups with similar racial background. In the sample of Caucasian individuals, panmictic proportions were ruled out in relation to TPOX and CSF1PO loci, but only in the latter was the overall frequency of heterozygotes significantly less than expected. In the sample of mulattoes, Hardy-Weinberg proportions were rejected in relation to FGA and CSF1PO loci, but in no instance were the overall numbers of heterozygotes different from the corresponding expected ones under panmixia. Taking into account all this and also the number of tests performed, the degree of genetic heterogeneity of Brazilian populations, and the critical level reached by the significant results (1% < alpha<5%), the departures from panmixia here observed can be considered to be negligible in altering significantly biologic relationship odds calculated under the assumption of random matings.     

A Proposal to Use Mediation and “Night Correspondents” to Curb Urban Violence in Cergy,France

Mediators, called night correspondents, have been hired by some French municipalities to reduce violence in the neighborhoods, using dialogue and daily help (in repairing things in particular). Night correspondents seem to be especially appropriate to reduce incivility, i.e. daily nonrespectful behavior. This essay reports on the results of two surveys conducted in Cergy by MBA students of two seminars at ESSEC business school. Although the recommendation of hiring night correspondents has not been followed yet in Cergy, several decisions have been taken by the social lessors and other public actors in the neighborhoods aimed at reducing violence, through mediation processes.     

Luis Alfredo Garavito Cubillos: criminal and legal aspects of serial homicide with over 200 victims

This is the first scientific report on the crimes of the homosexual paedophile sadist Luis Alfredo Garavito Cubillos, based on a research stay of the authors in Columbia, and including discussions with the investigators, and the offender. Between 1992 and 1999, Garavito killed more than 200 children in the core age span between 8 and 13 years (as an exception, 6 to 16 years). His modus operandi remained stable. During daytime, he lured children of a lower social status out of crowded parts of the city into hidden areas that were overgrown with high plants. Garavito promised either payment for easy work, or drugs, or made other socially believable offers. The children were tied up, tortured, raped, and killed by at least one cut in the lateral part of the neck, or by decapitation. During the killings, Garavito was drunk. Even after his arrest (for attempted sexual abuse under a wrong identity) it was not immediately possible to track his crimes since Garavito had frequently changed his places of stay and his jobs. He also grew different hairdos and used wrong names. During his still ongoing confessions, he directs the investigators correctly to all scenes of crime spread over large parts of Columbia. In our report, we give an overview over the course of investigations, hint to similarities in the cases of the German serial killer Denke (1920's) and homosexual paedophile serial killer Jürgen Bartsch (1960's), and give preliminary impressions on the offender's personality. Furthermore, the violent environment and juridical peculiarities in Columbia are discussed. In spite of a total penalty of 2600 years in prison, it is formally well possible that Garavito will be released out of prison within the next 10 to 20 years, i.e. even before the maximum sentence of 40 years will be over.     

Comparison of Anonymous Versus Confidential Survey Procedures: Effects on Health Indicators in Dutch Adolescents

Self-report questionnaires are frequently used in youth research, but doubt remains whether total anonymity affects the results. This study compared the responses of 704 mainly 16–17-year-old adolescents to self-report measures of various health indicators in 2 groups: anonymous and confidential collection. For most health indicators no significant differences were found. Perceived health, use of alcohol, and aggressive behavior (for boys) were reported significantly less frequently in the confidential group (small effect size). It appeared that pupils with high scores on social desirability do not respond differently at most health indicators in the 2 conditions. For most health characteristics, epidemiologically useful outcomes may be derived from confidential self-report measures, which are also valuable for detecting individual at-risk children. Similar studies in lower grades and other types of education should confirm the results.Youth Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Main research interests are emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, youth health care, monitoring.Youth Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Main research interests are emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, youth health care, monitoring.Research Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Major research interests include emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, suicidal behavior, youth health care, monitoring.     

Monotone Comparative Statics for Models of Politics

We elucidate a powerful yet simple method for deriving comparative statics conclusions for a wide variety of models: Monotone Comparative Statics ( Milgrom and Shannon 1994 ). Monotone comparative static methods allow researchers to extract robust, substantive empirical implications from formal models that can be tested using ordinal data and simple nonparametric tests. When these methods apply, they can replace a diverse range of more technically difficult mathematics (facilitating richer, more realistic models), assumptions that are hard to understand or justify substantively (highlighting the political intuitions underlying a model's results), and a complicated set of methods for extracting implications from models. We present an accessible introduction to the central monotone comparative statics results and a series of practical tools for using these techniques in applied models (with reference to original sources, when relevant). Throughout we demonstrate the techniques with examples drawn from political science .     

Majority rule and the public provision of a private good

This paper extends the literature on the socialization of commodities by developing a model of voting over the public provision of a private good: health care. The private use of health care is modeled as a supplement rather than as an exclusive alternative to public health care. A majority rule equilibrium is shown to exist. The equilibrium characterization is an example of Director's Law of Income Redistribution. A ban on private health care activities is shown to be opposed by a majority of voters. Implications for the size and distribution of private health care expenditures are drawn.