Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve around an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques. On the other hand, proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity. Wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity. In this article, we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study of two lingering puzzles in the political science literature: the existence of cycles in election returns in the United States and in the severity of major power wars.     

Analyzing Brazilian vehicle documents for authenticity by easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry

Using desorption/ionization techniques such as easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), it is possible to analyze documents of Brazilian vehicles for authenticity, providing a chemical profile directly from the surface of each document. A method for the detection of counterfeit documents is described, and the falsification procedure is elucidated. Forty authentic and counterfeit documents were analyzed by both positive and negative ion modes, EASI(±)-MS. EASI(+)-MS results identified the presence of (bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate plasticizer and of dihexadecyldimethylammonium biocide in both types of documents. For EASI(-)-MS results, the 4-octyloxybenzoic acid additive ([M + H](+): m/z 249) is present only in counterfeit documents. It was also found that counterfeit vehicle documents are produced via Laserjet printers. Desorption/ionization techniques, such as EASI-MS, offer therefore, an intelligent way to characterize the counterfeiting method.     

Developmental validation of RSID™-Semen: a lateral flow immunochromatographic strip test for the forensic detection of human semen

Abstract: Tests for the identification of semen commonly involve the microscopic visualization of spermatozoa or assays for the presence of seminal markers such as acid phosphatase (AP) or prostate‐specific antigen (PSA). Here, we describe the rapid stain identification kit for the identification of semen (RSID?‐Semen), a lateral flow immunochromatographic strip test that uses two antihuman semenogelin monoclonal antibodies to detect the presence of semenogelin. The RSID?‐Semen strip is specific for human semen, detecting <2.5 nL of semen, and does not cross‐react with other human or nonhuman tissues tested. RSID?‐Semen is more sensitive with certain forensic evidence samples containing mixtures of vaginal secretions and semen than either of the commercially available PSA‐based forensic semen detection tests or tests that measure AP activity that were tested in parallel. The RSID?‐Semen kit also allows sampling a fraction of a questioned stain while retaining the majority of the sample for further processing through short tandem repeat analysis.     

Demystifying "oxi" cocaine: Chemical profiling analysis of a "new Brazilian drug" from Acre State

Recent information from various sources suggests that a new illicit drug, called "oxi", is being spread across Brazil. It would be used in the smoked form and it would look like to crack cocaine: usually small yellowish or light brown stones. As fully released in the media, "oxi" would differ from crack cocaine in the sense that crack would contain carbonate or bicarbonate salts whereas "oxi" would include the addition of calcium oxide and kerosene (or gasoline). In this context, this work presents a chemical profiling comparative study between "oxi" street samples seized by the Civil Police of the State of Acre (CP/AC) and samples associated with both international and interstate drug trafficking seized by the Brazilian Federal Police in Acre (FP/AC). The outcome of this work assisted Brazilian authorities to stop inaccurate and alarmist releases on this issue. It may be of good use by the forensic community in order to better understand matters in their efforts to guide local law enforcement agencies in case such claims reach the international illicit market.     

Why is methenamine detected in Goma-2 dynamites originally methenamine free? An interpretation of relevant forensic results

After the train bombing in Madrid (Spain) on 11 March 2004, methenamine was detected in some of the specimens of Goma-2 ECO dynamite submitted to the forensic laboratories when analyzed by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry detection (GC-MS). Methenamine is synthesized from formaldehyde and ammonia through a condensation reaction. However, neither methenamine nor any of these compounds were used to manufacture Goma-2 ECO dynamite. Four different experiments were designed in order to explain the presence of methenamine detected in the dynamite samples analyzed. In the first one, GC-MS was used to analyze the individual components of Goma-2 ECO provided by the manufacturer and the components mixed in a raw paste. Methenamine was detected in the manufacturer's ammonium nitrate and in the raw paste. The other experiments were designed to find the precursors sources for methenamine generation in Goma-2 ECO. Results revealed that these sources could be ammonium nitrate for ammonia and sawdust for formaldehyde. Under heating conditions, dynamite could produce these precursors, which could condense in the injection port of the GC-MS system and generate methenamine. However, methenamine was not always detected in these dynamites. This was explained by the existence of two opposite effects: (a) dynamite stability makes difficult that ammonium nitrate releases ammonia and (b) there is a gradual loss of formaldehyde in sawdust along the time. Both effects can prevent the formation of an amount of methenamine large enough to be detected.     

Seasonal structure and dynamics of sarcosaprophagous fauna on pig carrion in a rural area of Cordoba (Argentina): their importance in forensic science

Four experiments, one in each season, were carried out during 2004 in a rural area of Córdoba, central Argentina. Two pigs (Sus scrofa L.), weighing approximately 8 kg each, were used in each of the four experiments. The animals were killed by a sharp blow to the head and immediately placed in an appropriate arthropod trap. One pig was placed in the shade and the other under direct sunlight. This research was conducted to determine the seasonal structure and dynamics of arthropods that constitute the sarcosaprophagous community in a given area of the central region of Argentina. The decomposition process was divided into five stages: fresh, bloated, decay, advanced decay and dry. The duration of each stage varied in different seasons, showing that the temperature and humidity are the most important variables that influence this process. A total of 51,500 adults and 36,909 immature were collected. More than 80% of the specimens collected belong to Insecta, and within this, Diptera were the most abundant order. The flies were mainly represented by adults and immature of the following species: Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Calliphoridae), Musca domestica Linnaeus (Muscidae) and Fannia femoralis (Stein) (Fanniidae). Coleoptera were mainly represented by adults and immature of the species Creophilus maxillosus (Linnaeus) (Staphylinidae) and Dermestes maculatus (Geer) (Dermestidae). More than 50% of hymenopteran fauna collected belong to Formicidae. The trophic levels associated with the decomposition of the remains included five categories: necrophagous, parasites and predators of the necrophagous species, omnivores, opportunists and adventives. During faunal succession a strong dominance of the necrophagous species of the family Calliphoridae and Muscidae was observed, mainly during the early stages of decay process in all seasons.     

Identification process in mass graves from the Spanish Civil War II

The identification process of a mass grave from the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) is presented. The presumed location of the grave, as well as the presumed number and identities of the persons buried in the grave were obtained exclusively from witnesses' and relatives' testimonies. In agreement with the testimonies, the grave was located at the indicated location and five skeletons were exhumed. Also in agreement with the testimonies, the osteological and DNA study led investigators to propose the identification of two kin groups, a father and his son and a pair of brothers. But the genetic study did not support the identification of a fifth man presumed to have been buried in the grave. The differences and similarities between this case and another case reported earlier are discussed.     

Permanent teeth development in a Spanish sample. Application to dental age estimation

The purpose of this study is to clarify the chronology of different stages of dental development, according to Demirjian, in a sample of Spanish children, which will enable us to build a database that will be used as a reference in regard to the dental development of individuals of our socio-geographic environment. In the same studied sample, a calculation of the dental age according to Demirjian was carried out. This study was conducted in a final sample consisting of 1010 orthopantograms, corresponding to Spanish children (485 boys and 525 girls) ages 2-16. Comparing the age of onset of the different stages among the children, evidence was found that girls had an earlier general development than boys. These differences were only statistically significant in teeth and concrete stages. The canine teeth revealed greater gender dimorphism, with significant differences in all stages compared with the upper canines. The method proposed by Demirjian for dental age calculation resulted in a significant overestimation of dental age in relation to the chronological age in boys (average of 0.87 years) and girls (average of 0.55 years). Data from this study may be used as reference for dental maturity, as well as a standard for estimating age in Spanish children.     

Metternich and Mustafa Reshid Pasha's Fall in 1841

The goal of the article is to explain the attitude of Austrian Chancellor Prince Metternich towards the Ottoman reformer, Mustafa Reshid Pasha, and refute the widespread and deep-rooted allegation against the chancellor of plotting against Reshid and causing his political fall in late March 1841. The article attempts to prove that it was Metternich who was on good terms with Reshid and did his best to prevent the latter's fall. The article also provides some new evidence for the claim that Metternich exerted certain influence over the reformatory ideas of the reformers at the early Tanzimat period like Mustafa Reshid Pasha and Sadik Rifat Pasha. To prove Reshid's high esteem to Metternich in this respect as well as his confidence in the chancellor's goodwill, an important document from the Austrian State Archives is quoted in full at the end of the article.     

Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.