Turnout Across Democracies

World democracies widely differ in legislative, executive, and legal institutions. Different institutional environments induce different mappings from electoral outcomes to the distribution of power. We explore how these mappings affect voters' participation in an election. We show that the effect of such institutional differences on turnout depends on the distribution of voters' preferences. We uncover a novel contest effect: Given the preferences distribution, turnout increases and then decreases when we move from a more proportional to a less proportional power‐sharing system; turnout is maximized for an intermediate degree of power sharing. Moreover, we generalize the competition effect, common to models of endogenous turnout: Given the institutional environment, turnout increases in the ex ante preferences evenness, and more so when the overall system has lower power sharing. These results are robust to a wide range of modeling approaches, including ethical voter models, voter mobilization models, and rational voter models.     

Policing a Negotiated World: A Partial Test of Klinger’s Ecological Theory of Policing

Objectives

Klinger’s (Criminology 35(2): 277–306, 1997) ecological theory of policing addresses the intersection of environment and police organizational structure on police patrol practices. The current study addresses the following question: ‘Is police response to calls for service influenced by the level of serious violent crime or the level of officer staffing?’

Methods

This question was addressed using crime, incident, and staffing data supplied by the Philadelphia Police Department. The dependent variable was the number of unfounded events per month, per police district, from 2004 to 2008. Analysis controlled for linear and non-linear trends, average monthly temperature, month length, and spatial effects. Data were analyzed using repeated measures multilevel modeling.

Results

Findings suggested that the quantity of unfounded events was associated with both workload and officer staffing levels. Consistent with theoretical predictions, higher workload was associated with more unfounded incidents while higher levels of officer staffing was associated with fewer unfounded incidents, net of ongoing trends and spatial effects.

Conclusions

These findings are consistent with the Ecological Theory of Policing and suggest that officers may shed workload in response to higher demands for service or lower levels of officer availability.

     

《人体损伤致残程度分级》与GEPI对足踝伤残评定的比较

目的本文通过对《人体损伤致残程度分级》和GEPI有关下肢足踝评定的内容进行比较研究,为《人体损伤致残程度分级》的修订提供建议。方法从条款分布、两个标准适用时的具体评定方法等方面对二者进行比较,并以GEPI足踝评定的残损值为参照,计算、分析《人体损伤致残程度分级》下肢条款致残率合理性。结果在跟骨骨折和踝关节创伤性关节炎评定方面,两个标准存在良好的对应性;在踝关节功能评定方面,除关节强直固定于非功能位的致残率略高于GEPI外,《人体损伤致残程度分级》其他条款与GEPI均具有良好的对应性。而在足弓结构破坏和足趾功能评定方面,两个标准对应性差,《人体损伤致残程度分级》评定的致残率明显高于GEPI。结论通过两个标准下肢足踝评定的比较,可以发现目前《人体损伤致残程度分级》的不足之处,提示在足弓结构破坏和足趾功能评定方面可能存在问题,需要进一步完善。     

文检仪显现同种同色掩盖字迹条件的初探

目的研究运用文检仪显现同种同色掩盖字迹的显出条件。方法以黑色签字笔为例,依据不同型号笔的油墨在不同光源下的荧光性质和红外吸收能力的差异,利用文检仪进行分析检验。结果只有在一定条件下被掩盖字迹才能被显出。结论在LUMI=IR红外荧光（兰光）下,只能显现激发荧光的油墨掩盖不能激发荧光的油墨的字迹和激发荧光能力弱的油墨掩盖激发荧光能力强的油墨的字迹;在红外吸收光和365nm长波紫外表面光下,只能显现颜色浅的油墨掩盖颜色深的油墨的字迹。     

早产和胎盘早剥的损伤程度鉴定（附1例分析）

本文从1例孕妇的损伤程度鉴定着手,对《人体重伤鉴定标准》的第78奈、第45条、第92务等条款的应用进行研究,结合案情对现行标准应用误区进行分析,提出症结所在,为了保证鉴定结论的质量,对《人体重伤鉴定标准》进行完善和修改势在必行。     

A fast ultrasound-assisted extraction procedure for trace elements determination in hair samples by ICP-MS for forensic analysis

An ultrasound-assisted extraction method is proposed for the determination of trace elements in hair samples by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for forensic investigation. Prior to analysis, 25 mg of hair samples were accurately weighed into (15 mL) conical tubes. Then, 2 mL of 20% HNO₃ is added to the samples, sonicated at 2 min (50 W, 100% amplitude), and then further diluted to 10 mL with Milli-Q water. Resulted diluted slurries are centrifuged and the analytes are directly determined in the supernatant. Calibrations against aqueous solutions were carried out with rhodium as internal standard. The method was successfully applied for the extraction of Al, As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Pb, Tl, U, V and Zn with a method detection limit (3 s, n = 20) of 0.1, 0.4, 0.2, 0.09, 0.08, 0.04, 0.1, 2.9, 1.0, 0.9, 0.04, 0.05, 0.1 and 4.2 ng/g, respectively. Method accuracy is traceable to Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) 85 and 86 human hair from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Additional validation data are provided based on the analysis of hair samples from the trace elements intercomparison program operated by the Institut National de Sante’ Publique du Quebec, Canada. The proposed method is very simple and can be applied for forensic purposes with the elimination of sample digestion step prior to analysis. Then, a considerable improvement in the sample throughput is archived with the use of the proposed method.     

20世纪80年代以来国内外政府部门顾客满意度研究述评

经济发达国家在20世纪80年代就开始进行顾客满意度的研究和实践。瑞典、美国、挪威、欧盟等许多国家和地区根据各自的实践特点和满意度理论,都相继建立了政府部门顾客满意度指数模型。国内的顾客满意度指数评价制度也从无到有,正逐步进入研究试行阶段。由于社会制度、经济发展水平不同及传统文化的影响,国外政府部门顾客满意度测量体系不适合我国国情。构建我国政府部门顾客满意度指数体系的首要任务是建立适合我国国情的满意度指数模型。     

How “institutionalization” can work. Structuring governance for digital transformation in Italy

Public policy scholars have recently focused on the mechanisms accounting for the sustainability of major policy changes. Among the strategies by which policy entrepreneurs may try to avoid future backlash institutionalization is certainly one of the most used. Yet, it can foster ossification and eventually jeopardize policy effectiveness. Such a potential trade-off between institutionalization and long-term effectiveness is particularly intense in policies concerning technological innovation because the necessity to create winning coalitions can undermine the required absorption capacity needed by government to engage the innovation ecosystems. This paper explores such a trade-off with a case study on the Italian policy for public sector's digital transformation. The case is theoretically promising because over three decades institutionalization has always represented the main overall strategy adopted by policymaker, but only the 2016 initiative emerged as a “success.” In this sense, the case study can focus on the mechanisms activated by policy entrepreneurs to trigger and entrench change.     

Thyroid Cartilage Ossification and Multislice Computed Tomography Examination: A Useful Tool for Age Assessment?

Abstract: Many authors have studied the thyroid cartilage ossification process using radiographic features for age estimation of individuals. Their results were various: Sugiyama reported excellent correlation coefficients between ossification rates and civil age, unlike most other authors. We hypothesized that recent advances in imaging techniques would enable more precise evaluation of the ossification of the thyroid cartilage. We retrospectively analyzed the CT scans of 312 French patients using postprocessing software to examine the pattern of thyroid cartilage ossification, calculating the ossified volume of the cartilage on 3D reconstructions. Pearson’s correlation coefficients for volume were 0.73 for men and 0.75 for women (standard error 18.02 and 17.06), indicating considerable inter‐individual variability. Although a correlation between civil age and morphological changes was found, these methods based on thyroid cartilage ossification were not accurate enough for the assessment of individual age.     

Macroscopic,Microscopic, and Chemical Assessment of Gunshot Lesions on Decomposed Pig Skin

Abstract: Very little literature exists on gunshot wounds on decomposed material. In this study, seven pig heads underwent a shooting test. Entrance wounds from the first head underwent neutron activation analysis (NAA) and histological testing immediately after the firing test; the other six heads were exposed to two different environments (open air and soil) and analyzed by radiochemical and histological tests every 15 days. Gunshot wounds in air maintained their morphological characteristics, and those in soil showed severe alteration after 5 weeks. Microscopic testing verified positive results for lead in all gunshot wounds in open air, whereas in most of those in soil lead could not be detected. Radiochemical analysis performed by NAA yielded for all gunshot wounds but one antimony quantities in the range of 0.07–13.89 μg. In conclusion, it may be possible to detect residues of antimony even in degraded tissues.