How Resilient are Labour Markets to Natural Disasters? The Case of the 1998 Bangladesh Flood

Natural disasters devastate economies as they impede capital accumulation. The resilience of labour markets is crucial for the poor who rely on labour to reduce risk. We evaluate how the 1998 ‘flood of the century’ affected wages in Bangladesh. We find short-term declines in agricultural and non-agricultural wages. Agricultural workers who moved towards non-agricultural employment to cope benefitted through a lower percentage reduction in short-term wages. Endowed with human capital, salaried workers were unable to mitigate income risk. Extending the eligibility of credit access or relief programmes may preserve local businesses and their employees in the years following a flood.     

A new sensitive short pentaplex (ShoP) PCR for typing of degraded DNA

Analysis of short tandem repeat makers has become the most powerful tool for DNA typing in forensic casework analysis. Unfortunately, typing of DNA extracted from telogen shed hairs, bones buried in the soil or from paraffin-embedded, formalin-fixed tissue often reveals no results due to the degradation of DNA. The reduction in size of the target fragments by development of new primers and their combination in multiplex approaches open a new field of DNA analysis. Here we present a new sensitive short pentaplex PCR including the loci amelogenin, TH01, VWA, D3S1358 and D8S1179. Validation tests of our new method included sensitivity, mixtures, human specificity, artificial degradation of DNA by DNase I and case work analysis on a panel of different forensic samples. The detection limit was 12.5 pg of human DNA, and mixtures of 50 pg in a total of 1000 pg were clearly detectable and revealed complete profiles. Only DNA extracts of human primates displayed a few signals, whereas other animal, fungal or bacterial DNA showed no signals. Our method proved extremely valuable in the analysis of artificially degraded DNA and in forensic cases, where only poorly preserved DNA was available. This approach and other similar methods can aid in the analysis of samples where allelic drop out of larger fragments is observed. It is highly recommended to develop more of these multiplexes to improve poor quality DNA typing.     

Individualism,contractarianism, and morality

This study develops the ethical implications to ascribing to both individualism and contractarianism as ethical postulates. We define moral individualism as defining the morality of all normative judgments concerning human action in reference to the extent that these actions allow individuals to achieve their interests. Contractarianism defines right and wrong in terms of the conduct proscribed in voluntarily joined contracts. This individualistic-contractarian ethics is inherently relativistic. Right and wrong are defined only with respect to the actions of the set of individuals joined in contract. Yet, it is argued that the individualist-contractarian morality can be defended because it provides both clear definitions of right and wrong and provides individuals with arguments and incentives to do that which is right.     

Archetype Transition in the German Health Service? The Attempted Modernization of Hospitals in a North German State

In this paper, we argue that, rather than aiming at universal contingency relationships, archetype theory needs to go down a path where 'local variants' can be discovered and understood by relating them to their organizational and institutional context(s). The case study of a public sector hospital group in a North German state (Hamburg) is drawn on here to elaborate the argument. We found evidence for a change from a Public Sector hospital archetype to a Public Hospital Corporation archetype. Drawing on this model permits us to explore the impact of the introduction of new forms of public management organization and the implications the managerial ideology underpinning this may have for the professional organization. The study explores the consequences of the innovations for professional/managerial relations. We also suggest that the 'archetype' approach may be particularly useful for the comparative study of organizations. This is particularly pertinent given the different – corporatist – organization of the German health care system and its different approach to public sector reform to that of the Anglo-American and Scandinavian systems where the 'archetypal' approach has so far been applied.     

The detection of 6-monoacetylmorphine in urine, serum and hair by GC/MS and RIA

6-Monoacetylmorphine (6-MAM) is a good indicator for the intake of heroin and can be detected in blood, urine and hair of heroin users. A new radioimmunoassay (RIA) designed specifically for 6-monoacetylmorphine (6-MAM) was tested for its usefulness for the quantitation of the drug in urine, serum and hair. Its cross-reactivity with heroin and its metabolites, and related compounds was also determined. Eighty-nine hair, six serum and 25 urine samples where 6-MAM had been previously identified by GC/MS were analysed for 6-MAM with the new RIA kit. A good correlation existed between the GC/MS and RIA results for the hair samples. However, the amount of 6-MAM found in serum and urine differed considerably between the two methods. This difference could be explained by the cross-reactivity of the antibody with morphine and morphine-6-glucuronide, which are present in much larger amounts in serum and urine, than in hair. To evaluate a new rationalisation procedure, some hair samples were split into two portions after incubation. One part was analyzed for 6-MAM by RIA, and the other portion by GC/MS.     

Aviation Security,Risk Assessment,and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk‐averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a “break‐even” cost‐benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost‐effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost‐effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk‐neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk‐averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year—a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.     

Market structure and performance of US multinationals in Brazil and Mexico

This paper presents the results of a regression analysis of the market structure determinants of profitability among the Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing affiliates of US multinational corporations. The study employs data on 206 firms derived from a special survey specifically designed to obtain detailed information on their market structure environments and performance characteristics. Our estimates confirm that seller concentration, product differentiation, and relative market share are three sources of market power of these firms. Despite the many economic and noneconomic differences between Brazil and Mexico, there are no systematic differences between the two in their underlying structure‐performance relationships.