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161.
Anthony N. CelsoAuthor Vitae 《Orbis》2014,58(2):229-247
The article argues that Islamist terror is driven by irrational forces; it analyzes jihadist values and doctrines that animate Islamic revolutionaries; it then contends that jihadist movements go through a cycle of mobilization, extremism, implosion and recreation. Finally, it assesses the prospects for jihadist revitalization, extremism, and decline in Syria and the Sahel. Examples from the Iraqi and Algerian jihadist campaigns are used for illustrative purposes throughout. 相似文献
162.
R.N.ANIL 《北京周报(英文版)》2011,54(29):48
<正>My first visit to China was in 1986.After that I have been to this charming country several times and during these visits heard 相似文献
163.
164.
N.P. Shmelev 《发展研究杂志》2013,49(1):71-92
Festival expenditures amount to over 15 per cent of a household's annual expenditures in rural India. Yet they have never been studied by economists. This article uses both qualitative and quantitative data from a case study of three South Indian villages to show that festivals are important public goods in the village, but neither a pure entertainment motive nor an altruistic desire to contribute to a public event seems to explain their size. Households which spend money on festivals, everything else held equal, are able, however, to generate tangible rewards - lower prices on food, higher social status and more invitations to meals from other families. This indicates that active participation in festivals generates private economic and social returns which help resolve a potential free-rider problem. The evidence is consistent with the notion that festivals serve as mechanisms by which communities build social networks. 相似文献
165.
Matthew Adam Kocher Thomas B. Pepinsky Stathis N. Kalyvas 《American journal of political science》2011,55(2):201-218
Aerial bombardment has been an important component of counterinsurgency practice since shortly after it became a viable military technology in the early twentieth century. Due to the nature of insurgency, bombing frequently occurs in and around settled areas, and consequently it tends to generate many civilian casualties. However, the effectiveness of bombing civilian areas as a military tactic remains disputed. Using data disaggregated to the level of the smallest population unit and measured at multiple points in time, this article examines the effect of aerial bombardment on the pattern of local control in the Vietnam War. A variety of estimation methods, including instrumental variables and genetic matching, show that bombing civilians systematically shifted control in favor of the Viet Cong insurgents. 相似文献
166.
Ana C. Brown Sharlene A. Wolchik Jenn-Yun Tein Irwin N. Sandler 《Journal of youth and adolescence》2007,36(7):927-938
Appraisals about the implications of stressful events that are evaluated as involving a threat to self (negative self-evaluation,
negative evaluation from others, rejection by others) have been shown to place youth at risk for the development of mental
health problems. This longitudinal study tested a protective-stabilizing interactive model, in which high maternal acceptance
was predicted to mitigate the prospective relation between threat to self appraisals and change in adolescents’ mental health
problems six months later. Participants were 89 adolescents from divorced families ages 10–12 and residential mothers. Adolescents
reported on threat to self appraisals from the most stressful event experienced in the past month. Mothers and youth reported
on maternal acceptance and mental health problems. Multiple regression analyses provided support for the protective effects
of maternal acceptance on adolescents’ mental health problems. Intervention implications are discussed.
Ana Brown is a pre-doctoral fellow in prevention research (NIMH 2 T32 MH18387–19) and doctoral student in the Department of
Psychology at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ. Research interests include the study of children’s appraisals and responses
to stressful events in the prevention of mental health problems.
Sharlene Wolchik is a clinical psychologist and professor in the Department of Psychology at Arizona State University, Tempe,
AZ. Her research focuses on identifying risk and protective factors for children whose parents have divorced. She also has
designed and evaluated the efficacy of preventive interventions for children from divorced families and children who have
experienced parental bereavement.
Jenn-Yun Tein is a research associate professor and Co-Director of the Research Methodology Core of the Prevention Research
Center at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ. Her research interests include analyses of mediation and moderation of preventive
interventions as well as applications of methodology and statistics in prevention research.
Irwin Sandler is a Regents’ Professor in the Department of Psychology and Director of the Prevention Research Center at Arizona
State University, Tempe, AZ. His research interests focus on understanding resilience for children exposed to stress and on
the development, evaluation and dissemination of programs to promote resilience and prevent mental health problems for children
in stress. 相似文献
167.
168.
We use economic theory to examine the intensity of fundamentalist sects in which leaders work to enhance their followers’ observance level. We model three stylized situations under which fundamentalist groups function, examining the intensity of observance in each. We find that, under reasonable conditions, rivalry among fundamentalists makes them more extreme. 相似文献
169.
Abstract. This article is an exploratory analysis of the efficacy of parliamentary representation as a means to moderate ethnic conflict in new democracies. The authors agree with many others that the interests of a minority ethnic group are better protected when the group has access to decision makers, can block harmful government policies and veto potentially damaging decisions. Parliamentary representation, however, does not always allow for an effective representation of those who are not in government. Seats in the legislature may be of little use in a parliament where the executive dominates the policy process at all stages. This article focuses on the new democracies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union between 1990 and 2000. The authors use the number of parliamentary seats obtained by minority ethnic parties as their main independent variable and the MAR ethnic protest and rebellion scores as their dependent variables. In addition, they employ the system of government (i.e., parliamentary versus presidential) as a proxy indicator of the degree of influence that parliamentary parties have over decision making. A cross-section-time-series regression analysis shows that the ameliorative effect of parliamentary representation over ethnic conflict is stronger in those legislatures where the ethnic group has effective influence over decision making. It is also shown that representation within national parliaments has no ameliorative effects over violent secessionist conflicts. When the ethnic minority's demands are too radical, parliamentary representation is simply an inadequate instrument. 相似文献
170.
The US Office of Management and Budget introduced in 2003 a new requirement for the treatment of uncertainty in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) of proposed regulations, requiring agencies to carry out a formal quantitative uncertainty assessment regarding a regulation’s benefits and costs if either is expected to reach $1 billion annually. Despite previous use in other contexts, such formal assessments of uncertainty have rarely been employed in RIAs or other regulatory analyses. We describe how formal quantitative assessments of uncertainty – in particular, Monte Carlo analyses – can be conducted, we examine the challenges and limitations of such analyses in the context of RIAs, and we assess how the resulting information can affect the evaluation of regulations. For illustrative purposes, we compare Monte Carlo analysis with methods typically used in RIAs to evaluate uncertainty in the context of economic analyses carried out for the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Nonroad Diesel Rule, which became effective in 2004. 相似文献