The British general election of 2010 under different voting rules

The 2010 British election resulted in what the British refer to as a “hung Parliament” for the first time in over a generation. This result further heightened the debate over the fairness and utility of the nation’s centuries-old first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. Survey data are used to simulate the election outcome under four different electoral systems beyond FPTP: round-robin pair-wise comparisons, the Borda count, the alternative vote, and Coombs' method. Results suggest that in 2010, the Liberal-Democrats were Condorcet preferred to all other parties and would have won a national election under every tested method except the alternative vote, the method supported by the Liberal-Democrats during the referendum in May 2011 and, of course, FPTP as actually used.     

Effect of storage temperature on endogenous GHB levels in urine

Because gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) is an endogenous substance present in the body and is rapidly eliminated after ingestion, toxicologists investigating drug-facilitated sexual assault cases are often asked to differentiate between endogenous and exogenous levels of GHB in urine samples.This study was designed to determine the effects of storage temperature on endogenous GHB levels in urine. Specifically, it was designed to ascertain whether endogenous levels can be elevated to a range considered indicative of GHB ingestion.Urine specimens from two subjects that had not been administered exogenous GHB were collected during a 24h period and individually pooled. The pooled specimens were separated into standard sample cups and divided into three storage groups: room temperature ( approximately 25 degrees C), refrigerated (5 degrees C), and frozen (-10 degrees C). Additionally, some specimens were put through numerous freeze/thaw cycles to mimic situations that may occur if multiple laboratories analyze the same specimen. Periodic analysis of the samples revealed increases in the levels of endogenous GHB over a 6-month period. The greatest increase (up to 404%) was observed in the samples maintained at room temperature. The refrigerated specimens showed increases of 140-208%, while the frozen specimens showed smaller changes (88-116%). The specimens subjected to multiple freeze/thaw cycles mirrored specimens that had been thawed only once. None of the stored urine specimens demonstrated increases in GHB concentrations that would be consistent with exogenous GHB ingestion.     

Assessment of the acuteness of heroin deaths from the analysis of multiple blood specimens.

Data was compiled from 126 morphine-involved cases investigated by the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, State of Maryland, USA. An investigation was conducted into whether comparison of morphine concentrations from a central and peripheral site could be used to determine whether a morphine death was acute or delayed. Fifty cases were identified as 'acute' because the urine free morphine concentration by radioimmunoassay (RIA) was less than 25 ng/mL; 76 cases were classified as 'random' because they had a urine morphine concentration greater than 25 ng/mL by RIA. The average heart blood to peripheral blood morphine concentration ratio in the acute deaths was 1.40. The average heart blood to peripheral blood morphine concentration ratio in the random deaths was 1.18. Because there was considerable overlap between the two groups of data, the authors conclude that it was not possible to predict 'acute' opiate intoxication deaths versus 'delayed' deaths when the only information available is heart and peripheral blood free morphine concentrations.     

Suspect burial excavation procedure: A cautionary tale

Geographic location, time of reporting and need for rapid evaluation contributed to a lack of intelligence concerning a suspect burial site in scrub woodland (～15 km from the last known location of a missing person) in Northern Ireland. Police received reports of a subsiding ‘grave’, which was evaluated positively using GPR and victim recovery dogs (VRD). After 24 h work, archaeological excavation showed a vertical-sided, stepped excavation on undisturbed clay with no inhumation. Subsequent research showed the feature to be an engineering trial pit. The GPR response was a water table and rocks, VRD were possibly reacting to disturbed ground. The work serves as a demonstration of good archaeological practice in suspect burial excavation, following a lack of landscape evaluation and poor overall intelligence.     

Negotiating U.S. policy to counter terrorism

Conclusion Terrorists have been active throughout history. Their threat, just like the threat of national warfare, ebbs and flows with events and personalities. To counter this threat, U.S. policy should be mature, honest, flexible, farsighted, publicly known, and consistent with our highest values. At this time, the Bush Administration has a good opportunity to reassess U.S. policy and develop a balanced response to the threat of terrorism.Effective counter-terrorism policy can only evolve from an effective process for evaluating and developing that policy. And the key to successful process is sound negotiation theory. This focus on process, bringing with it a broad view of the problem and a preference for joint activity, creates a workable approach to dealing with the serious threat of terrorism in our world. John S. Murray is President and Executive Director of the Conflict Clinic, Inc., a private not-for-profit organization affiliated with the Center for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030. Mr. Murray's sister is Jean Sutherland, whose husband Tom was kidnapped in Beirut by Islamic Jihad on June 9, 1985.     

Improving Third-Party Decisions at Choice Points: A Cyprus Case Study

Third parties are often required to make process decisions under considerable psychological pressure, within the stressful view of interested parties, often with high stakes and inadequate information, on very short notice, and without an opportunity for extended research or even much reflection. Therefore, a valuable goal in preparing for intervention is to develop the ability to spot patterns or cues in the context of the dispute that can immediately suggest techniques or process options that could be successful. This essay focuses on conditions at important choice points in an intervention and the third-party decisions made in response. It discusses how third parties make decisions on process issues and suggests ways to learn how to make better decisions. Next, it applies this decision framework to an actual intervention, using an effort by a co-author to build interaction between the Greek and Turkish communities in Cyprus during the mid-1990s. Finally, the authors jointly evaluate the Cyprus experience to capture lessons learned for improving third-party conflict resolution practice.