Determining an optimum percentage of defendants to release before trial: Applying inventory modeling concepts to legal policy problems

Some aspects of determining what proportion of defendants to release before trial are discussed using cost and other data obtained from judges, prosecutors, defense attorneys, and bail project directors in twenty-three cities. Various holding costs, releasing costs, and percentages of defendants held are used. Smooth curves are fitted to the data points to determine at what percentage of defendants held the total cost curve bottoms out. The effects of varying the costs and the cities, the causal implications of why the optimum percentage differs substantially from the actual percentage, and the policy implications of using the analysis in pretrial release policy and in reducing the total costs are shown. Ways in which the model can be expanded to obtain insights into the optimum level of various kinds of due process and law enforcement are also indicated.     

Super-optimizing china: reunification as an example

Whereas political issues and problems in China are complicated, efforts to “super-optimize” are essential and can be fruitful. The reunification issue is discussed to illustrate even highly politicized problems in China are amenable to super-optimum solutions. At the moment, some reunification options have been proposed: KMT-CCP negotiation on equal footing; KMT's military takeover; CCP's military takeover; the “one country, two systems” formula, convergence by democratization, and incremental convergence through trading and communication. Yet, neither parties find the alternatives desirable in terms of optimal satisfaction. By applying SOS rule # 2 (finding items that will provide large benefits to one side but only small costs to the other side), # 5 (combining the conservative and liberal alternatives where they are not mutually exclusive), and # 6 (removing the source of the conflict), reunification and democratization are made feasible and all parties concerned are better off. The specific proposals are that Taiwan should introduce a wholesale buy-out scheme that costs US$30 billion, that a new republic be established, and that legislative powers should be shared among the majoritarian and non-majoritarian institutions. Together, these arrangements could ensure stability and result in democratization.