Evaluation of automobile safety regulations: The case of compulsory seat belt legislation in Australia

A basic tenet of the new conservatism in political economy is that government policies frequently lead to unintended consequences which may offset the benefits of the policy. Auto safety legislation may be a case in point. As the first country to make the wearing of seat belts compulsory, Australia is highly suitable as a case study. Traffic accident casualties were regressed on six independent variables for the pre-seat belt period 1949–71. The equations were then used to predict casualties for the period 1972–77, using the actual values of the independent variables. In the aggregate, predicted occupant casualties were higher than the actual rates, whereas non-occupant casualties were underpredicted by the equations. An additional test, using a dummy variable to predict the effect of seat belts, supported these conclusions. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that drivers respond to a reduction in risk by increasing driving intensity, shifting some of the welfare cost of auto safety legislation on to non-occupants, whose casualty rates are higher than they would have been in the absence of seat belt legislation.I am grateful to Chris Adam and to an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Reviews

Allan K. Wildman, The End of the Russian Imperial Army: The Old Army and the Soldiers’ Revolt (March‐April 1917). Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1980. 402 pp. £13.70.

Adam Zwass, Money, Banking and Credit in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, translated by Michel C. Vale. New York: M. E. Sharpe Inc. London: Macmillan, 1979. 233 pp. £12.00.

Jan Adam, Wage Control and Inflation in the Soviet Bloc Countries. London: Macmillan, 1979. i‐xx+243 pp. £15.00.

Robert A. Lewis and Richard H. Rowland, Population Redistribution in the USSR. Its Impact on Society, 1897–1977. New York: Praeger Publishers (Praeger Special Studies), 1979. xx + 485 pp. £22.50.

Michael Bourdeaux, The Land of Crosses, Chulmleigh, Devon: Augustine Publishing Company, 1979, xviii + 339 pp. £3.00.

V. Stanley Vardys, The Catholic Church, Dissent and Nationality in Soviet Lithuania. Boulder: East European Quarterly. Distributed by Columbia University Press, New York, 1978. 336 pp. $18.00.

Richard Taylor, The Politics of the Soviet Cinema 1917–1929. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979, xvi + 214 pp. £9.50.     

Evaluating a new computer-based system for face recall

The Computer-Aided Design Centre has developed a new face recall system which enables a witness to construct the image of a suspect on a television screen. The system currently uses the Photofit library and method of construction. Likenesses of target faces produced by subjects (n=36) using the new system were compared to conventional Photofits produced by a second group of subjects (n=36) of the same targets. There was no difference on any of the three measures employed in the assessed quality of the likenesses produced by Photofit and the CADC System. Both systems tended to produce more recognizable composites when construction was carried out in the presence of the target compared to its absence. Composites made from memory on the initial trial were marginally better with the CADC System than with Photofit. While both systems showed low absolute accuracy, they enjoyed a measure of success in transmitting a likeness of a facial type. It is concluded that while the CADC system shows promise, psychological constraints upon witnesses' powers of recall may place limits on the absolute accuracy achievable with any system of face reconstruction.These experiments were financed by grant No. POL/73 1675/24/3 from the Police Scientific Development Branch of the U.K. Home Office. Points of view expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of the funding body. Our gratitude and thanks are due to Tony Kitson and Clive Holloway for their many hours spent developing and operating the CADC system; Jean Shepherd for her skills as a Photofit operator; the Computer-Aided Design Centre; and the MRC Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge for facilities and subjects.     

The relationship of abuse and witnessing violence on the Child Abuse Potential Inventory with black adolescents

A number of social and psychological factors present in most adolescent parents place them at high risk for abusive behavior toward their children. However, current child abuse potential measures do not include adolescent samples as part of the psychometric data base. Consequently, the purpose of this study was twofold: (1) to investigate whether a Black adolescent sample would perform differently than an adult nonabusing sample on the Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAP), and (2) to examine the relationship between history of abuse or witnessing violence to scores on the CAP. Results revealed that Black adolescents scored significantly higher than the adult normative sample on the CAP; consequently, cutoff scores need to be empirically established for adolescents. Additional analyses indicated that a history of abuse, as well as a history of witnessing violence, are associated with a high potential for abuse.     

The influence of individual and community-level child mortality on fertility in Egypt

Child mortality was analyzed in relation to 3 dimensions of reproductive behavior: birth intervals, additional children desired, and contraceptive use. Study data were drawn from a 1978 survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates, Beheira and Kafr El-Sheikh, in lower Egypt. Within each governorate, 2 districts were selected on the basis of their distance from the capital of the governorate, agricultural output by major crops, percent of the population urban, infant mortality rate, and crude birthrate. Within each of the 4 districts, villages were randomly drawn from 3 strata: villages lacking any governmental services; villages with limited services (health center or primary school); and villages served by a combined unit center providing integrated services. A random sample of household heads was selected from household registration records of the provision office of each district. 1200 interviews were obtained from 685 households. Restriction of the sample to women with 1 or more live births, and the elimination of 13 cases with incomplete or inaccurate information, yielded 1010 cases for analysis. The basic measure of actual fertility was birth intervals. For the total sample and within each age category, cumulative fertility is higher the greater the number of child deaths. The data demonstrate a strong relationship between child mortality experience and cumulative fertility. The problem lies in interpreting such results. With some exceptions, birth intervals increased as expected with increasing parity. Women without child death experience displayed longer birth intervals than women who had not lost a child. With the single exception of the 7th parity women, all differences were statistically significant. The data fail to eliminate potential biological influences on subsequent fertility. With biological influences adequately controlled, no behavioral differences remained. Women who experienced child mortality desired greater numbers of additional children than women without child death experience. 19% of respondents were ever users of contraception, with women of low parity the least likely ever to have used contraception.