Reconstructing ‘conflict of interest’ in financial markets: Private management, public challenges, future prospects

Following widespread criticism of financial market (self-)regulation, there is a shift in regulatory mood, explored here with reference to evolving conceptions of conflict of interest. The pre-crisis distinction between conflict of interest (normal, manageable) and its exploitation (unacceptable, legally actionable) has become somewhat eroded, as exemplified by the SEC’s 2010 civil fraud action against investment bank Goldman Sachs. However the settlement of that case on the basis of ‘mistake’ left many questions unanswered: about the meaning(s) of conflict of interest, about managerial mistake versus exploitative intent in administrative/civil cases and equally about the potential for action under criminal law. Looking forward, a judgement of the European Court of Justice on insider trading – concerning a rebuttable assumption of intent – could be taken as a template for ‘drawing the line’ on conflict of interest. Acting on the basis of informational asymmetry could be taken as an indicator of intent and serious wrongdoing unless financial market actors can demonstrate otherwise.     

A false start in the race against doping in sport: concerns with cycling's biological passport

Professional cycling has suffered from a number of doping scandals. The sport's governing bodies have responded by implementing an aggressive new antidoping program known as the biological passport. Cycling's biological passport marks a departure from traditional antidoping efforts, which have focused on directly detecting prohibited substances in a cyclist's system. Instead, the biological passport tracks biological variables in a cyclist's blood and urine over time, monitoring for fluctuations that are thought to indirectly reveal the effects of doping. Although this method of indirect detection is promising, it also raises serious legal and scientific concerns. Since its introduction, the cycling community has debated the reliability of indirect biological-passport evidence and the clarity, consistency, and transparency of its use in proving doping violations. Such uncertainty undermines the legitimacy of finding cyclists guilty of doping based on this indirect evidence alone. Antidoping authorities should address these important concerns before continuing to pursue doping sanctions against cyclists solely on the basis of their biological passports.     

Nuclear Dominoes: A Self-Defeating Prophecy?

Is the nuclear domino theory historically valid? Despite its longstanding centrality to thinking on nuclear proliferation amongst scholars and policymakers, in recent years a revisionist consensus has emerged in opposition to this traditional view. Based on an analysis of historical evidence from the aftermath of the 1964 Chinese nuclear test, this article argues that scholars have gone too far in rejecting the nuclear domino theory. Reactive proliferation has been more prevalent than commonly believed, and while it is true that only India acquired a nuclear arsenal in response to the Chinese test, to a significant extent this is precisely because the United States was aware of the danger of reactive proliferation and worked to stop it. Finally, the historical evidence suggests that the nuclear domino theory is compatible with both domestic and prestige motivations for proliferation in addition to the security motives normally associated with the theory.     

Current practices by forensic anthropologists in adult skeletal age estimation

When determining an age estimate from adult skeletal remains, forensic anthropologists face a series of methodological choices. These decisions, such as which skeletal region to evaluate, which methods to apply, what statistical information to use, and how to combine information from multiple methods, ultimately impacts the final reported age estimate. In this study, a questionnaire was administered to 145 forensic anthropologists, documenting current trends in adult age at death estimation procedures used throughout the field. Results indicate that the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis method (1990) remains the most highly favored aging technique, with cranial sutures and dental wear being the least preferred, regardless of experience. The majority of respondents stated that they vary their skeletal age estimate process case-by-case and ultimately present to officials both a narrow and broad possible age range. Overall, respondents displayed a very high degree of variation in how they generate their age estimates, and indicated that experience and expertise play a large role in skeletal age estimates.     

Addressing the National Academy of Sciences' challenge: a method for statistical pattern comparison of striated tool marks

In February 2009, the National Academy of Sciences published a report entitled "Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward." The report notes research studies must be performed to "…understand the reliability and repeatability…" of comparison methods commonly used in forensic science. Numerical classification methods have the ability to assign objective quantitative measures to these words. In this study, reproducible sets of ideal striation patterns were made with nine slotted screwdrivers, encoded into high-dimensional feature vectors, and subjected to multiple statistical pattern recognition methods. The specific methods employed were chosen because of their long peer-reviewed track records, widespread successful use for both industry and academic applications, rely on few assumptions on the data's underlying distribution, can be accompanied by standard confidence levels, and are falsifiable. For PLS-DA, correct classification rates of 97% or higher were achieved by retaining only eight dimensions (8D) of data. PCA-SVM required even fewer dimensions, 4D, for the same level of performance. Finally, for the first time in forensic science, it is shown how to use conformal prediction theory to compute identifications of striation patterns at a given level of confidence.     

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND WORLD FOOD TRADE

Despite i t s internal differences, the European Economic Community seems to be moving toward an established and permanent position as agricultural exporter. European nations have moved irreversibly from being an import market to bejng a self-sufficient and large-scale producer. An established and politically entrenched agriculture in the European Economic Community has widespread support and their general economic needs elevate agriculture to promirience in attacking trade deficits.     

Providing infrastructure for a future state: Reading Herzl's Der Judenstaat in 1996

Theodor Herzl's Der Judenstaat, published in 1896, laid the intellectual foundations for the future state of Israel. His hope was to create for the Jews of Europe a country where they could live without suffering discrimination and deprivation of vertical mobility. This article focuses on Herzl's views of the means and ends of creating the social overhead capital or infrastructure of such a future country. A century ago, before Herzl, the strategic role of the public goods in the economic development process had not been sufficiently recognized.