Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Having valid and reliable tools to measure ‘dynamic’ risk factors and minimising assessor bias is said to be critical in helping to make decisions regarding how individuals convicted of committing crime should be managed and treated, and how resources within the Justice System should be prioritised. This article outlines the problems and issues associated with the measurement of such putative dynamic risk factors (see Ward, 2015 Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law, 22(01-02), 2–16. [Google Scholar] [Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law.], 22(1–2), 2–16], this volume for a critique of current conceptions of these), and suggests ways of ensuring that measurement is conducted in the most appropriate way for the population being dealt with. Specifically, we would note that the evidence suggests that psychometric analysis, and structured professional judgment can be used to measure dynamic psychological problems using some tools within some samples. However, their use can be hindered by a number of conceptual factors including how the tests are designed and used, their reliability and validity, the context in which they are used, and the samples used. Finally, we would note that interviews are also an important part in the process of dynamic assessment.     

A Challenge for Police-Community Relations: Rethinking Stop and Search in England and Wales

This article presents research carried out as part of a government research programme looking at how police tactic of 'stop and search' in England and Wales. For many years, figures which have shown a higher rate of stop and search of minority ethnic groups, particularly black people, have provoked much controversy, and have been seen by many as a manifestation of police racism. This article reviews the way in which stop and search impacts on public confidence, with particular reference to those from minority ethnic groups. It goes on to explore its role within policing, including an examination of its effectiveness against crime and the evidence for racism in police practice. Following from this, it considers how stop and search can be used in a way that minimises negative impacts on the community and maximises its effectiveness against crime.     

Post-citizenship,the New Left and the democratic commons

This article investigates the possibilities for the emergence of more participatory forms of citizenship in the context of austerity Europe. Especially significant in this regard is the history of the post-war New Left who were critical of both social democracy and authoritarian Marxism. In this context I reconsider the radical ‘humanistic’ writing of E.P. Thompson and Raymond Williams. Not only does their work offer a critical understanding of the commons, but equally connects to the revival of humanism evident within the alter globalisation movement. Further I look at the development of different ideas for a revived Left including nostalgia for the social democratic period and the idea of cosmopolitanism. While all of this work has something to offer I seek to argue that it fails to adequately address the need to develop more ecologically sensitive and more participatory forms of citizenship. In the final section, I outline the importance of the struggle for a more democratic and autonomous society and the increasing importance of issues related to traditions of self-management and the idea of the commoner. The idea of the commoner could yet become one of the major ideological struggles of the twenty-first century, but this will depend upon its ability to excite the imaginations of Europe's increasingly frustrated citizens in the age of neoliberalism.     

European national news

This article tracks developments at the national level in key European countries in the area of IT and communications and provides a concise alerting service of important national developments in key European countries. It is co-ordinated by Herbert Smith Freehills LLP and contributed to by firms across Europe. Part of its purpose is to complement the Journal's feature articles and briefing notes by keeping readers abreast of what is currently happening “on the ground” at a national level in implementing EU level legislation and international conventions and treaties. Where an item of European National News is of particular significance, CLSR may also cover it in more detail in the current or a subsequent edition.     

"Never Hitherto Seen Outside of a Zoo or a Menagerie": The Language of Australian Politics

Since the early 1980s, "linguistic" and "cultural" influences have shaped the study of history and the broader social sciences worldwide. In Australia these influences have developed more slowly than in comparable countries such as Great Britain or the United States. Yet the colourful language and "culture wars" of Australian politics have long been key ingredients of political history's appeal in and outside of the academy. Many practitioners perceive that the so-called "turns" constitute a threat to the study of political history. This article contends that, on the contrary, they have enlivened historiographical concerns.     

Revenue authorities: are they the right vehicle for improved tax administration?

It is now well recognised that reforms to tax administration are as important as tax policy changes for overall fiscal reform. One institutional model of tax administration, which has been quite widely adopted in Africa in recent years, is that of the semi‐independent Revenue Authority. This approach is based on the executive agency model, widely adopted in the UK and elsewhere, as a way of improving performance of certain governmental functions. This article looks at the arguments for and against the Revenue Authority model, and examines a number of practical issues in the design of such an agency. It draws on the recent experience of Revenue Authorities in a number of countries. It concludes that the Revenue Authority model can offer an appropriate institutional framework for reforming tax administration, particular where low pay rates and rigid civil service systems inhibit effective management. However, Revenue Authorities do not solve all problems, and can only be expected to deliver results if they form part of a wider reform. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age and changing masculinities in gay–straight male workplace friendships

Abstract

Drawing on interview data gathered from 35 gay men in the UK, this article explores how age influences the negotiation of masculinity within gay–straight male workplace friendships. Study findings show that gay–straight workplace friendships between younger men appear to be framed in terms of equality, not homophobia. Older gay men also report similar experiences, some suggesting how these friendships were not possible in their youth. Gay and straight men of a similar age are also united in friendship by their experiences of ageing and its implications for carrying out work. Interview data also reveal how gay–straight male friendships are constrained at work, thus limiting the opportunities for emotional openness and physical tactility. Overall, the study reveals how younger and older gay men, and their straight male friends, variously align themselves to inclusive masculinities within friendship. This article contributes to inclusive masculinity theory by extending the types of contexts currently studied, both relational and work-related, and adding further emphasis to the contextually contingent nature of inclusive masculinities. It also advances the limited literature on gay–straight friendships by highlighting how they might challenge and reshape the heteronormative contours of work contexts.     

The medical licensing examination debate

National licensing examinations are typically large‐scale examinations taken early in a career or near the point of graduation, and, importantly, success is required to subsequently be able to practice. They are becoming increasingly popular as a method of quality assurance in the medical workforce, but debate about their contribution to patient safety and the improvement of healthcare outcomes continues. A systematic review of the national licensing examination literature demonstrates that there is disagreement between assessment experts about the strengths and challenges of licensing examinations. This is characterized by a trans‐Atlantic divide between the dominance of psychometric reliability assurance in North America and the wider interpretations of validity, to include consequences, in Europe. We conclude that the debate might benefit from refocusing to what a national licensing examination should assess: to achieve a balance between assessing a breadth of skills and the capacity for such skills in practice, and focusing less on reproducibility.     

Elizabeth von Arnim’s The Pastor’s Wife: A Reassessment

Abstract

The Pastor’s Wife (1914) may seem at first reading simply another depiction of a woman struggling for liberation in the decades following the work of Thomas Hardy and Henrik Ibsen, being the story of how Ingeborg Bullivant escapes from an English patriarchal home, only to find herself trapped in another one in Germany. The novel, however, marks a turning point in Elizabeth von Arnim’s career; it is a novel that looks back to previous themes while anticipating those to come. It demonstrates, with comedy and bitterness, themes of alienation and exile; satirizes German codes and class; and provides a lyrical Romantic vision of the natural world. It also presents the married woman as a prisoner in a way that anticipates Vera (1921). The novel can also stand alone as an underrated classic that plays an important part in the history of English literature. Published at the beginning of high modernism, it shows, unlike the work of some canonized writers of the time, a fusion of realism and modernism. This essay argues that the novel is a proto-feminist work that is radical in its portrayal of women’s experience and influenced by literary naturalism in its childbirth scenes, but pessimistic about possibilities for change. The essay shows how the novel is modernist in its depiction of the alienated experience of the city; uses nineteenth-century realism in its narrative structure and comedy; and yet is forward-looking in its use of endings. A book that begins as a comedy but ends as a tragedy, The Pastor’s Wife deserves equal recognition with the work of H. G. Wells and E. M. Forster, writers with whom von Arnim was connected and by whom she was influenced.     

Mangroves, crabs, clams and communities in Airai State, the Republic of Palau

A collaborative 18 month study was conducted within 4 protected mangroves areas in Airai State, Southeast Babeldaob and the Republic of Palau with traditional men and women groups. Water quality, forest structure, and the size distribution and relative abundance of the mud crab, Scylla serrata and the clam Anodontia edulenta were studied. Water quality parameters differed significantly between sites as follows： pH （F=16.8; df=3,138; p〈0.000）, turbidity （KW-H=22.07; df=3,162; p〈0.0006）, salinity （F=19.8; df=3,366; p〈0.000）, dissolved oxygen （KW-H=13.4; dr=3, 169; p〈0.0012） and temperature （F=4.33; df=3,157; p〈0.006）. The total mean density of all trees was 2,077±225 stems ha^-1 and differed significantly between sites （KW-H=9.3; df=3; p〈0.02）. The total mean basal area was 18.9±2.76 m^2ha^-1 and differed significantly between sites （KW-H=36.2; df=3; p〈0.000）. The total mean volume of all trees was 679 m^3ha^-1 ± 201 m^3ha^-1. The total mean density of saplings was 1,234 ± 297 saplings ha^-1. The mean percent tree canopy cover significantly differed between sites （F=3.3; df=3, 32; p〈0.02）. Mean soil elevation decreased at sites 1 and 4 and increased at sites 2 and 3. The mean soil accretion was greater at sites 1 and 3 than sites 2 and 4. The mean weight for all crabs was significantly different between sites （F=3.2; df=3, 178; p〈0.02）. The mean weight for 55 females was 0.62 g ± 0.04 kg （SE） and differed significantly between sites （F=4.2; dr=3, 51; p〈0.01）. The mean weight for 157 males was 0.75 ± 0.04kg （SE）. The mean carapace width （CW） for all crabs was 14.30 ± 0.20 cm （SE）. The mean carapace width （CW） for 56 females was 14.4 ± 0.35cm （SE） and significantly differed between sites （F=4.6; df=3, 52; p〈0.006）. The mean carapace width （CW） for 157 males was 14.3 ± 0.21 cm. The mean CPUE for all sites was 0.48 ± 0.04 crabs trapl night^-1 （SE） and significantly differed between sites （F=2.9; df=3, 77; p=0.04）. A total of 21 tagged crabs were recaptured in the same area they were initially tagged, of which 3 male crabs had molted. A male was recaptured in the same trap 180 days after capture at Site 1 ; the carapace width increased by 3.6 cm and a weight increase of 0.75kg. A single A. edulenta was found in the protected areas. Clams harvested in Airai State outside the protected areas were significantly smaller than clams harvested in northwest Babeldaob （F=14.8; df=1, 198;p〈0.0002）. Crab fishers and the community recommended a harvest ban on female crabs, enforcement of existing 6inch CW harvest size limit, further investigation of point sources of coliform bacteria and sediment pollution and a harvest limit on mangrove trees.