Application of Theil group logit methods to district-level vote shares: tests of prospective and retrospective voting in the 1991, 1993, and 1997 Polish elections

Political scientists often wish to test hypotheses in the context of district-level vote-share models of elections involving more than two parties. Although a group logit framework for estimating such models was developed many years ago by Henri Theil, the complexity of its variance–covariance structure has prevented it from being widely applied. The authors demonstrate how data can be transformed to take account of the Theil variance–covariance structure so that seemingly unrelated regression can be used to estimate vote-share equations on either an intra- or inter-election basis. This method offers a simpler and more accessible way to analyze multiparty elections than the method proposed recently by Katz and King [Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 97 (1999) 15]. The demonstration involves testing hypotheses about incumbency (retrospective) and policy (prospective) voting in the 1991, 1993, and 1997 Polish elections. The authors find that the estimations favor the policy voting hypothesis.     

Comparison of ethyl glucuronide in hair with phosphatidylethanol in whole blood as post-mortem markers of alcohol abuse

Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) is a direct metabolite of ethanol and has been used as a marker of alcohol abuse in both urine and hair. This study investigated the value of EtG testing in post-mortem hair for diagnostic improvement of alcohol abuse in forensic medicine. Material from 70 consecutive medico-legal autopsies was collected in accordance with the recommendations on ethics by the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine. A method for determination of EtG in hair samples was developed using ultra performance liquid chromatography/electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-MS/MS; LOQ, 2.5 pg/mg). The result of the EtG analysis was compared with the findings of phosphatidylethanol (PEth) in femoral whole blood, as measured by high performance liquid chromatography with an evaporative light-scattering detector (HPLC-ELSD; LOQ, 0.22 micromol/l). Evaluation of liver histology and anamnestic evidence of alcohol abuse of the deceased were taken in consideration for the interpretation. Measurable levels of EtG were present in 49 of the 70 autopsy cases whereas PEth was present in 36. Thirty-nine cases had EtG levels above the cutoff limit (> or = 30 pg/mg) compared with 29 for PEth (> or = 0.7 micromol/l). Fifteen cases had EtG as exclusive indicator for alcohol abuse compared with four cases for PEth. These findings suggest that measurements of EtG in hair may provide improved diagnostic information on alcohol abuse, due to a long retrospective time-window for detection and stability of EtG in hair in the decaying cadaver. However, an EtG level below the cutoff does not completely exclude previous alcohol abuse.     

Bolt Cutter Blade's Imprint in Toolmarks Examination

Bolt cutters are known as cutting tools which are used for cutting hard objects and materials, such as padlocks and bars. Bolt cutter blades leave their imprint on the cut objects. When receiving a cut object from a crime scene, forensic toolmarks examiners can determine whether the suspected cutting tool was used in a specific crime or not based on class characteristic marks and individual marks that the bolt cutter blades leave on the cut object. The paper presents preliminary results of a study on ten bolt cutters and suggests a quick preliminary examination—the comparison between the blade thickness and the width of the imprint left by the tool on the cut object. Based on the comparison result, if there is not a match, the examiner can eliminate the feasibility of the use of the suspected cutting tool in a specific crime. This examination simplifies and accelerates the comparison procedure.     

Down the Funnel

This article argues that the new legitimacy of the Russian regime has a military-mobilization character; in order to maintain it the regime needs a deeper confrontation with the West and a dismantling of the residual elements of the electoral legitimacy. This shift also requires stronger reliance on the use of force.     

The Year 2015

Russian politics in 2015 was characterized by a continuation and strengthening of the lines of development first announced in the previous year. The chief trends in political development included a growing personalism and progressive deinstitutionalization of the Russian political system, the degradation of elections and of the judicial system, and the de facto dismantling of local self-government. The political elite underwent a radical shift in power, changing its overall configuration and enhancing the role of heads of the security forces. This coincided with the activation and strengthening of the apparatus of repression and an increase in pressure on regional elites, with continuing replacement of governors and of managers of state corporations.     

The Class Characteristic Mark of the H&M Mul‐T‐Lock Picking Tool in Toolmarks Examination

Mul‐T‐Lock is a high security lock cylinder distinguished by the use of a telescoping “pin‐in‐pin”—tumbler design. Picking the Mul‐T‐Lock cylinder with a traditional picking tool is highly complicated because it can get stuck between the inner and outer pins. The H&M Mul‐T‐Lock picking tool was designed to overcome this problem and facilitate the picking of the “pin‐in‐pin” cylinder. The purpose of this research is to determine whether H&M Mul‐T‐Lock picking tool leaves class characteristic mark and whether it can be distinguished from traditional picking tools marks and from regular key marks. It also describes and determines the class characteristic mark left on telescopic pins, its origin, recurrence, and its benefit to the toolmarks examiner. When receiving a Mul‐T‐Lock from a crime scene, a toolmarks examiner can quickly determine whether or not it was picked by an H&M Mul‐T‐Lock picking tool by noticing the class characteristic mark which this typical tool leaves.     

Duale oder schulische Berufsausbildung? Entwicklungen und Weichenstellungen in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz

In der vergleichenden politischen Ökonomie hat das Thema Ausbildung vor allem seit der “Varieties of Capitalism”‐Forschung an Popularität gewonnen. Deutschland, Österreich und die Schweiz gelten dabei als Länder, die ihre Arbeitskräfte im Rahmen einer korporatistisch gesteuerten dualen Ausbildung beruflich bilden. Unser Beitrag zeigt jedoch, dass sich die relativen Teilnehmerzahlen verschiedener Bildungsgänge im Sekundarbereich II seit Mitte der 1970er Jahre unterschiedlich entwickelt haben. In Österreich hat sich über die Zeit die staatlich gesteuerte vollzeitschulische Berufsausbildung neben der dualen Ausbildung etabliert. In Deutschland und in der Schweiz ist das duale Ausbildungssystem nach wie vor dominierend. Als ausschlaggebend für die Expansion der vollzeitschulischen Ausbildung in Österreich identifizieren wir drei zentrale Punkte: erstens die Dominanz der österreichischen Sozialdemokratie und deren informelle Zusammenarbeit mit den Christdemokraten, zweitens die Steuerung des österreichischen Bildungswesens durch den Zentralstaat und drittens die breite Unterstützung der Berufsbildungsreformen durch Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschaften. Bedeutende Weichenstellungen erfolgten in den 1970er Jahren.