Power Sharing: Institutions,Behavior, and Peace

Grievances that derive from the unequal treatment of ethnic groups are a key motivation for civil war. Ethnic power sharing should therefore reduce the risk of internal conflict. Yet conflict researchers disagree on whether formal power‐sharing institutions effectively prevent large‐scale violence. We can improve our understanding of the effect of power‐sharing institutions by analyzing the mechanisms under which they operate. To this effect, we compare the direct effect of formal power‐sharing institutions on peace with their indirect effect through power‐sharing behavior. Combining data on inclusive and territorially dispersive institutions with information on power‐sharing behavior, we empirically assess this relationship on a global scale. Our causal mediation analysis reveals that formal power‐sharing institutions affect the probability of ethnic conflict onset mostly through power‐sharing behavior that these institutions induce.     

The feasibility of a desirable minimal state

Dwight Lee (1989) argues on utilitarian grounds that the minimal state of classical liberalism cannot be both desirable and feasible: if desirable, it is not attainable; if attainable, it is not desirable. Lee's article provides an intriguing new perspective on the long debate about the optimal size of government. His conclusions, however, do not hold if some of his restrictive assumptions are relaxed. In a more general model, the minimal state can be both desirable and feasible.     

Economic Integration,Party Polarisation and Electoral Turnout

Recent research provides evidence that economic integration has a negative effect on electoral turnout. Taking up these recent findings, this article explores the causal chain in more detail. Specifically, it argues that one way by which economic integration affects the calculus of voting is through the positioning of political parties. The expectation is that the polarisation between parties on an economic left–right scale is lower the more integrated an economy is. Consequently, electoral turnout should be lower with less polarisation in the party system. The article employs aggregate-level data from legislative elections in 24 developed democracies. Using data from the Comparative Manifestos Project, evidence is found not only that economic integration has a negative effect on party polarisation as measured on an economic left–right dimension, but also that this in turn exerts a negative effect on electoral turnout.     

Psychopathy, intelligence and conviction history

The current study examined the relationship between psychopathy, intelligence and two variables describing the conviction history (length of conviction and number of prior convictions). It was hypothesized that psychopathy factors (interpersonal and antisocial factors assuming a 2-factor model or interpersonal, affective, lifestyle and antisocial factors assuming a 4-factor model) would be related in different ways to IQ scores, length of conviction and number of prior convictions. Psychopathy and IQ were assessed using the PCL:SV and the CFT 20-R respectively. Results indicated no association between interpersonal psychopathy features (Factor 1, two-factor model), IQ and the number of prior convictions but a positive association between Factor 1 and the length of conviction. Antisocial features (Factor 2, two-factor model) were negatively related to IQ and the length of conviction and positively related to the number of prior convictions. Results were further differentiated for the four-factor model of psychopathy. The relationship between IQ and psychopathy features was further assessed by statistically isolating the effects of the two factors of psychopathy. It was found that individuals scoring high on interpersonal features of psychopathy are more intelligent than those scoring high on antisocial features, but less intelligent than those scoring low on both psychopathy features. The results underpin the importance of allocating psychopathic individuals to subgroups on the basis of personality characteristics and criminological features. These subgroups may identify different types of offenders and may be highly valuable for defining treatment needs and risk of future violence.     

White-collar criminals in Norway: An empirical study

This article addresses the following research question: What characteristics concerning white-collar criminals can be found based on newspaper articles in Norway? This research is important, as studies of white-collar criminals so far have focused on case studies rather than statistical analysis of a larger sample. Based on articles in Norwegian financial newspapers in 2010/2011, a total of 49 white-collar criminals convicted to jail sentence were identified. The average age of the convicted persons was 51 years. 47 out of 49 criminals were men. The average sentence was 3 years imprisonment. The average sum of money involved in the financial crime was 185 million Norwegian kroner (30 million US dollars).     

Dental maturity curves in Finnish children: Demirjian's method revisited and polynomial functions for age estimation

Dental maturity was studied from 2213 dental panoramic radiographs of healthy ethnic Finns from southern Finland, aged between 2 and 19 years. The aim was to provide new Finnish maturity tables and curves and to compare the efficiency of Demirjian's method when differently weighted scores and polynomial regressions are used. The inter-ethnic variations lead us to calculate specific Finnish weighted scores. Demirjian's method gives maturity score as a function of age and seems better adapted for clinicians because, in their case, the maturity score is unknown. Polynomial functions give age as a function of maturity score and are statically adapted for age estimation studies. Finnish dental maturity tables and development curves are given for Demirjian's method and for polynomial functions. Sexual dimorphism is established for the same weighted score for girls and boys, and girls present a greater maturity than boys for all of age groups. Polynomial functions are highly reliable (0.19% of misclassifies) and the percentile method, using Finnish weighted scores, is very accurate (+/- 1.95 years on average, between 2 and 18 years of age). This suggests that polynomial functions are most useful in forensic sciences, while Demirjian's method is most useful for dental health clinicians.     

Barriers and Opportunities for Primary Care Delivery Systems: A Case Study from the County Council of Uppsala, Sweden

Reallocation of resources from hospital care to primary care outside the hospitals is one of the leading ideas in Swedish health policy. Since the middle of the 1970's a system of long-term planning at the county level has been the main instrument of realizing this aim. In this case-study of the implementation of a current long-term plan in the county of Uppsala, the problems of health policy planning in a situation of economic crisis are illustrated. The attempt at planning according to the rational model is shown to have been impeded by, among other things, the incremental strategy of budgeting, which was natural in the days of affluence. In the present situation of low economic growth and strong political demands for restrictions on the growth of the health care sector, particularly as regards the hospitals, incremental budgeting will probably have to give way to a more comprehensive form of planning, such as the mixed-scanning strategy.     

Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace

This article demonstrates how spatially dependent data witha categorical response variable can be addressed in a statisticalmodel. We introduce the idea of an autologistic model wherethe response for one observation is dependent on the value ofthe response among adjacent observations. The autologistic modelhas likelihood function that is mathematically intractable,since the observations are conditionally dependent upon oneanother. We review alternative techniques for estimating thismodel, with special emphasis on recent advances using Markovchain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We evaluate a highly simplifiedautologistic model of conflict where the likelihood of war involvementfor each nation is conditional on the war involvement of proximatestates. We estimate this autologistic model for a single year(1988) via maximum pseudolikelihood and MCMC maximum likelihoodmethods. Our results indicate that the autologistic model fitsthe data much better than an unconditional model and that theMCMC estimates generally dominate the pseudolikelihood estimates.The autologistic model generates predicted probabilities greaterthan 0.5 and has relatively good predictive abilities in anout-of-sample forecast for the subsequent decade (1989 to 1998),correctly identifying not only ongoing conflicts, but also newones.