Policy research in sub-Saharan Africa: An exploration

This article argues that a major problem with contemporary policy analysis is that it has difficulty coming to terms with complex economic change. This in turn is probably influenced by a view of socioeconomic systems that still harks back to the classical mechanics of the nineteenth century and a relatively stable world in which social action could reasonably be informed by disinterested scientific research of a traditional kind. By means of a review of some recent policy analysis literature and by focusing on issues relating to development issues in contemporary Africa, the article maintains that a more realistic approach would recognize the evolutionary nature of modern socioeconomic systems and base policy interventions accordingly. In particular, there is a need to see ‘policy’ as a process of complex change requiring innovative institutional contexts and novel managerial capabilities.     

How jurors construe “insanity”

Historically and currently, jurors who have rendered verdicts in insanity cases have themselves been criticized and maligned-accused of being simplistic and biased, of lacking understanding, and of disregarding or nullifying the judge's instructions. Are the critics right? In this study, 263 mock jurors (141 adults and 122 students) were asked to decide four insanity cases without instructions, using their own best judgment, and to identify the determinative facts for them, and the meaning of those facts. Those determinative factors were then categorized, using a seven construct schema for NGRI and guilty verdicts. The results show that jurors do make discriminations among cases in terms of constructs, and that these constructs are relevant, complex, and flexible; furthermore, the jurors' lay constructs of insanity are more complex than the legal constructs of insanity. The “simplism,” it seems, lies not with the jurors but with the insanity tests.     

The effectiveness of interactive journaling in reducing recidivism among substance-dependent jail inmates

The present study sought to evaluate the influence of interactive journaling on criminal recidivism and identify significant predictors of recidivism among a sample of 183 male inmates incarcerated in a local jail facility randomly assigned to either an interactive journaling condition or a control group. All participants met DSM-IV-TR criteria for substance dependence, had their current offense indicate substance involvement, and had a minimum of one previous arrest in the prior 12 months. The recidivism rate (51%), in terms of subsequent bookings within a 12-month period, for the journaling group was significantly lower than the recidivism rate (66%) for the control group, χ(2)(1, 183) = 4.13, p < .05. The three most significant independent predictors of subsequent bookings were severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, group assignment (journaling vs. placebo), and employment status. Interactive journaling appears to show promise as a brief treatment intervention strategy for substance dependence in local jail settings and may have the potential for reducing recidivism.     

Characterisation of gunshot residue from three ammunition types using suppressed anion exchange chromatography

Gunshot residue (GSR) is commonly analysed in forensic casework using either scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) or gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Relatively little work has been reported on the post-discharge GSR content of non-metallic inorganic or low molecular weight organic anions to distinguish between different ammunition types. The development of an analytical method using suppressed micro-bore anion exchange chromatography (IC) is presented for the analysis of GSR. A hydroxide gradient was optimised for the separation of 19 forensically relevant organic and inorganic anions in <23min and sensitivities of the order of 0.12-3.52ng of anion detected for all species were achieved. Along with an optimised extraction procedure, this method was applied to the analysis of post-ignition residues from three selected ammunition types. By profiling and comparing the anionic content in each ammunition residue, the possibility to distinguish between each type using their anionic profiles and absolute weight is presented. The potential for interference is also discussed with respect to sample types which are typically problematic in the analysis of GSR using SEM-EDX and GC-MS. To the best of our knowledge this represents the first study on the analysis of inorganic anions in GSR using suppressed ion chromatography.     

IMAGINING THE LAW: COMMON LAW AND THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE AMERICAN LEGAL SYSTEM

Now Doniger paced, using Kramer as an audience of one, "We are all ruled by the past, although no on understands it. No one recognizes the power of the past" he said, with a sweep of his hand.
"But if you think about it, the past has always been more important than the present. The present is like a coral island that sticks above the water, but is built upon millions of dead corals under the surface, that no one sees. In the same way, our everyday world is built upon millions and millions of events and decisions that occurred in the past. And what we add in the present is trivial.     

The World Wide Web and the U.S. Political News Market

We propose a framework for understanding how the Internet has affected the U.S. political news market. The framework is driven by the lower cost of production for online news and consumers' tendency to seek out media that conform to their own beliefs. The framework predicts that consumers of Internet news sources should hold more extreme political views and be interested in more diverse political issues than those who solely consume mainstream television news. We test these predictions using two large datasets with questions about news exposure and political views. Generally speaking, we find that consumers of generally left‐of‐center (right‐of‐center) cable news sources who combine their cable news viewing with online sources are more liberal (conservative) than those who do not. We also find that those who use online news content are more likely than those who consume only television news content to be interested in niche political issues.     

The dynamics of candidate evaluations and vote choice in 2008: looking to the past or future?

In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.