Reviews

Kaunda's Zambia, 1964 ‐ 1991. A Select and Annotated Bibliography compiled by Naomi Musiker.

South African Institute of International Affairs, Bibliographical Series No. 26, Johannesburg. 1993. viii plus 426pp.

Environment, Employment and Development edited by A.S. Bhalla. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1992. x plus 177pp. including bibliography.

Poverty in Developing Countries: A Bibliography of Publications by the International Labour Office World Employment Programme, 1975–91. International Labour Office Bibliography No 12. International Labour Office, Geneva, 1992. viii plus 152pp.

The South African Tripod: Studies in Economics, Politics and Conflict by B. Oden, T. Ohlson, A. Davidson, P. Strand, M. Lundahl, and L. Moritz. Scandinavian Institute of International Studies, Uppsala, 1994. 281pp. including tables and graphs.

Tears of the Dead, the Social Biography of an African Family by Richard Werbner. Baobab Books: Harare and Edinburgh University Press, 1991. xi plus 211pp. including genealogies and illustrations.

The Politics of the National Arts Festival by Kenneth Grundy. Occasional Paper, No. 34, Institute of Social and Economic Research. Rhodes University, Grahamstown. 66 pp. including notes.

The Agrarian Question in Southern Africa and Accumulation from Below: Economics and Politics in the Struggle for Democracy by Michael Neocosmos. Research Report No. 93, The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1993. 79 pp. including notes and bibliography.

The Bushman Myth: The Making of a Namibian Underclass by Robert J. Gordon. Boulder, Westview Press, Colorado and Oxford, 1992. xiv plus 304 pp. including maps, tables, notes, references and index.

A Bed Called Home: Life in the Migrant Labour Hostels of Cape Town by Mamphela Ramphele. David Philip: Cape Town, 1993. vii plus 152pp. including illustrations, appendix, bibliography and index.

The Small and the New in Southern Africa: The Foreign Relations of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland since their Independence. A Select and Annotated Bibliography compiled by L.E. Andor. South African Institute of International Affairs, Bibliographical Series No. 25, Johannesburg, 1993. x plus 526pp.     

International institutions and credible commitment of non-democracies

How do non-democratic countries credibly commit to policies in front of domestic and international audiences? Unlike democracies, non-democracies do not have functioning electoral systems and free presses to make their commitments costly thus credible. Yet, the need to credibly commit to a policy arises for non-democracies as well. In particular, when non-democratic leaders push for economic reforms, they need to coordinate the beliefs of domestic groups and attract international resources. How do non-democracies solve the commitment problem and succeed in achieving their policy goals? In this study, we argue that international institutions provide an important mechanism through which non-democratic countries could credibly signal their commitment to open economic policies. We test the argument with the involvement of IMF programs by post-communist countries from 1989 to 2005. We find that while IMF status is used as a credible commitment device for all countries, the effect is more significant for non-democracies.     

No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets

Purpose

This study applies the concept of restrictive deterrence to a sample of drug market offenders. In particular, we assess the influence of behavioral changes post-arrest on time to rearrest.

Methods

The sample consists of arrest data on all drug offences in South Australia from the start of 2000 to the end of 2007 (n = 26819). Cox proportional hazard models are used to conduct survival analyses. Supplementary models focus on those repeatedly arrested for cannabis cultivation to assess the influence of adjusting amounts of drugs on time to rearrest.

Results

Changing behaviors is related to more rapid rearrest. Switching offense location, drug seriousness, and charge seriousness are all risk factors. However, among offenders repeatedly arrested for cannabis cultivation, changing location and increasing the number of plants they grow is related to a longer period before rearrest.

Conclusions

Offenders that change their drug market behavior after being arrested appear to be placing themselves in situations in which they are more likely to fail due to the dangers of breaking into an unfamiliar market or offense pattern. Offenders with the longest post-arrest survival seem to be those that maintain their overall pattern of behavior while implementing subtle arrest avoidance techniques.