Rethinking the partisan effects of higher turnout: So what's the question?

Controversy persists over the link between turnout and the likelihood of success of Democratic candidates (e.g., DeNardo, 1980, 1986; Zimmer, 1985; Tucker and Vedlitz, 1986; Piven and Cloward, 1988; Texeira, 1992; Radcliff, 1994, 1995; Erikson, 1995a, b). We argue that the authors in this debate have largely been talking past one another because of a failure to distinguish three quite different questions. The first question is: “Are low turnout voters more likely to vote Democratic than high turnout voters?” The second question is: “Should we expect that elections in which turnout is higher are ones in which we can expect Democrats to have done better?” The third question is the counterfactual: “If turnout were to have increased in some given election, would Democrats have done better?” We show the logical independence of the first two questions from one another and from the third, and argue that previous researchers have failed to recognize this logical independence – sometimes thinking they were answering question three when in fact they were answering either question one or question two. Reviewing previous research, we find that the answer to the first question once was YES but, for more recent elections at the presidential level, now appears to be NO, while, for congressional and legislative elections, the answer to the second question appears generally to be NO. However, the third question is essentially unanswerable absent an explicit model of why and how turnout can be expected to increase, and/or analyses of individual level panel data. Thus, the cross-sectional and pooled data analyses of previous research are of almost no value in addressing this third question.

     

Family Variables that Mediate the Relation Between Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) and Child Adjustment

This study examined the mediating roles of several family variables in the relation between IPV witnessing and children’s emotional and behavioral problems among 129 low-income, African American children ages 8 to 12. According to the mediational model tested, experiencing or witnessing IPV negatively impacted the following family variables: maternal psychopathology, family cohesion, and relatedness quality, which were subsequently associated with diminished child adjustment. These findings were stronger when child reports were considered and when the outcome variable was internalizing problems. Findings from this study support the value of targeting these variables in the development of culturally appropriate child witness interventions for low-income African American families. Recommendations for future interventions based on study conclusions are offered.     

The Effect of Varying the Composition of Fingerprint Sweat Deposits on the Corrosion of Brass and Fingerprint Visibility

Corrosion of α‐phase brass by sebaceous sweat fingerprint deposits produced identifiable impressions in a majority of samples (n = 40) 4 days after deposition. Combining sebaceous with eccrine sweat yielded a greater percentage of identifiable fingerprint deposits, although this increase was not statistically significant. Production of identifiable fingerprints from eccrine sweat deposits was dependent on the sampling time of year with deposits taken during summer months giving similar percentages of identifiable fingerprints to sebaceous deposits. A statistically significant positive correlation was found between elapsed days after deposition and identifiable eccrine (ρ = 0.787, p < 0.05), sebaceous (ρ = 0.724, p < 0.05), and eccrine/sebaceous mixture (ρ = 0.908, p < 0.01) fingerprints deposited during summer months. The summer increase in the percentage of identifiable eccrine sweat deposits was statistically significant compared to winter eccrine deposits (p < 0.0001). Observations were consistent with results obtained from artificial sebaceous and eccrine sweat.     

Self-injury group psychotherapy intervention for young offenders: a pilot study

Objective: Self-injury (SI) is a significant and growing problem with the prison estate and a particularly acute issue with young offenders. Despite this, there are no evidence-based interventions for Young Offenders with SI difficulties. The Self-Injury Group Psychotherapy Intervention (SIGPI) was developed to target this.

Method: Drawing on existing evidence, the group was developed and piloted on a sample of 12 male Young Offenders (mean age 19.85 years) in custody with a history of SI. Participants were measured on observable SI behaviour, SI thoughts and urges and psychological distress. A within subject design was utilised with measures at baseline, 6 months and 1 year.

Results: At 12 months follow-up, a significant reduction in SI acts, time spent on SI monitoring, severity of urges and difficulty resisting SI. Psychological distress was also reduced.

Conclusions: SIGPI could be a potentially promising intervention and further investigation into its efficacy is warranted.     

Healthy law makes for healthy children: Cattanach v Melchior

When courts are forced to consider issues surrounding birth and the sanctity of life, it is inevitable that divergence of judicial, academic and public opinion will result. However, the issue of whether parents can recover the expenses of rearing a healthy child has long vexed judges and commentators of law, ethics and medicine both in Australia and globally, with considerable disunity. A cogent example is the recent High Court of Australia decision in Cattanach v Melchior (2003) 215 CLR 1, where the court split four to three and handed down no less than six individual judgments. The case involved the birth of a healthy child following an unplanned pregnancy resulting from a failed surgical sterilisation. By allowing parents to recover the reasonable expenses of rearing an unintended child until the age of 18 years, the decision has provided some limited and temporary legal clarity to the issue of wrongful pregnancy in Australia. It is seen by some as a victory for the reproductive freedom of women and the rights of the child. However, with uncertainty remaining on the issue of wrongful life claims in Australia and with legislative changes in Queensland and New South Wales that partly reverse the High Court's decision, there remains doubt about the future of such claims in Australia.     

To vote or not to vote: The paradox of nonvoting

One paradox of voting states that, in a general election, in which many citizens vote, the probability that a single voter can affect the outcome is so small that in general citizens have no rational reason for voting. However, if all citizens accept this reasoning, then none will vote, and so each vote has a large probability of affecting the outcome. Hence all should vote after all. The adoption of mixed strategies resolves this paradox: if each citizen adopts a certain (small) probability of voting, then the actual number of citizens voting will be just enough to make it worth those citizens' while to vote. A Nash equilibrium point thus occurs. Here we compute Nash equilibria for the simple case of majority voting; for the more complicated case of composite voting (for example, as in a presidential election), we draw certain qualitative inferences.