Incremental Thinking: "Toward a Theory of Budgeting"

Editor's Note: V.O. Key's article bemoaning "The Lack of a Budgetary Theory" was reprinted in the previous issue of Public Budgeting & Finance. The problems identified by Key are normative; they go to the basic values arid purposes of society and, hence, cannot be resolved by budgetary solutions alone. But a dozen years after Key wrote, Verne Lewis sought to anchor a theory of budgeting in marginal analysis, His article, printed here by permission of the American Society for Public Administration, first appeared in the Public Administration Review in 1952, Rather than seeking a full-blown political philosophy. Lewis thought that budgetary choice could be rationalized at the margins, by comparing the marginal costs and benefits of competing claims on public resources, While his hopes for a theory of budgeting have not been fulfilled, Lewis laid the groundwork for forms of marginal analysis introduced by PPB and ZBB in later decades. Indeed, there is a remarkable affinity between the budgetary structure proposed by Lewis and the one used by zero-base budgeting in the 1970s.     

Heat Waves,Droughts, and Preferences for Environmental Policy

Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find evidence that the channel through which weather conditions affect policy preference is via perceptions of the importance of the issue of global warming. Furthermore, environmentalists and individuals who consult more sources of news are less likely to have their attitudes toward global warming changed by current weather conditions. These findings suggest that communication and education emphasizing consequences of climate change salient to the individual's circumstances may be the most effective in changing attitudes of those least likely to support proenvironment policy. In addition, the timing of policy introduction could influence its success.     

Automated Texture Recognition of Quartz Sand Grains for Forensic Applications*

Quartz sand surface texture analysis has been automated for the first time for forensic application. The derived Basic Image Features (BIFs) provide computer-generated texture recognition from preexisting data sets. The technique was applied to two distinct classification problems; first, the ability of the system to discriminate between (quartz) sand grains with upturned plate features (indicative of eolian, global sand sea environments) and grains that do not exhibit these features. A success rate of grain classification of 98.8% was achieved. Second, to test the ability of the computer recognition system to identify specific energy levels of formation of the upturned plate surface texture features. Such recognition ability has to date been beyond manual geological interpretation. The discrimination performance was enhanced to an exact classification success rate of 81%. The enhanced potential for routine forensic investigation of the provenance of common quartz sand is indicated.