A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Pulmonary edema in fatal heroin overdose: immunohistological investigations with IgE, collagen IV and laminin - no increase of defects of alveolar-capillary membranes

Pulmonary edema complicating heroin overdosage is a well recognized entity and regarded as the major mechanism contributing to death in heroin addicts. It's pathogenesis is unknown, several mechanisms are discussed: hypoxia-induced increase of pulmonary capillary permeability, depressed myocardial contractility, centrally induced respiratory depression, primary toxic effects on the alveolar capillaries and acute anaphylactic shock. The present study included opiate-related deaths (n=23) and a control group of sudden cardiovascular deaths (n=12) to verify the hypothesis, that defects of the alveolar capillary membranes and/or an acute anaphylactic reaction leads to pulmonary congestion, edema and hemorrhages. Lung specimens were obtained from these 35 autopsies of persons autopsied in the Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bonn, in 1997 and 1998. All specimens were examined with hematoxylin-eosin, prussian blue and investigated with immunohistological methods using primary antibodies against collagen IV, laminin and IgE. Defects of the basal laminae of the alveoli were found, demonstrated by laminin and collagen IV, and the number of IgE-positive cells was counted in both groups. There was an increased but not significant number of IgE-positive cells in the heroin-group and defects of the epithelial and endothelial basal laminae were found in both groups without significant differences.     

Segmental analysis for cocaine and metabolites by HPLC in hair of suspected drug overdose cases

Hair samples of eight postmortem cases were analyzed in segments of 1 to 3 cm for cocaine, benzoylecgonine and cocaethylene. Samples were prepared for analysis by digestion in 0.1 M HCl and subsequent extraction with mixed-mode solid-phase extraction columns. Measurement was made by reversed-phase, narrow-bore HPLC and fluorescence detection using two laboratory-made internal standards. The concentrations were in the region of 0.29-316 ng/mg of hair for cocaine, 0.43-141 ng/mg of hair for benzoylecgonine and 0.93-1.83 ng/mg of hair for cocaethylene. All eight investigated cases had cocaine-positive segments. In six of the cases, all segments were positive, suggesting regular cocaine use and two showed in-between negative segments indicating an interruption or a change of the abuse intensity. The results showed a second, remarkable observation, i.e. enormous concentration differences (factor >150) for both cocaine and benzoylecgonine between the different subjects. Furthermore, interindividual cocaine/benzoylecgonine ratios ranged from 0.02 to 8.43. We believe these observations could in part be attributed to both some of the still existing limitations in the analytical approach(es), especially the mandatory hair washing steps, and in our still too limited knowledge of the hair incorporation processes. Nevertheless, in some cases, segmental analysis proved to be an important tool to distinguish, together with postmortem examination, deadly chronic abuse from single acute drug overdosage.     

Alternative primers for DYS391 typing: advantages of their application to forensic genetics

The amplification of the STR DYS391, using the primers described in the Genome Data Base (GDB: G00-365-251), shows not only an additional band to the Y-specific one in males with a size range of 26 bp less than those of DYS391 locus alleles, but also a polymorphic pattern in females in the same size range as the additional band observed in males. The DYS391 pattern in families reflects a Y-specific linked locus and also a polymorphic X locus with an X-linked pattern of inheritance. A first screening in the X homologous locus allowed the identification of five different alleles. Allele frequencies were explored in different population groups for both the Y locus and the homologous locus in the X chromosome showing a similar allele distribution pattern in the X and Y homologous loci. An alternative reverse primer was designed to amplify the Y-chromosome specific STR in order to improve the specificity and applicability of this system to forensic genetics. Comparative results of the amplification with the new and the previously described primers proved that with this new primer there is a substantial increase in the specificity of the amplification. Moreover, a smaller fragment is amplified with a size out of the range of the alleles of the other Y-STRs usually used in forensic applications, therefore simplifying its inclusion in multiplex systems.     

Selenium determination in mother and child's hair by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A method for the selenium determination in a mother and her child's hair using palladium as a chemical modifier was optimized. The sample was digested with nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide and diluted to 5 ml. To achieve complete mineralization the samples were ashed at 1200 degrees C in the presence of palladium as a chemical modifier. The optimum atomization temperature was 1900 degrees C. The precision and accuracy of the method were studied using the reference material CRM 397. Results of calibration using aqueous standards and the standard addition method were compared. The method was applied to the selenium determination in 30 samples of the mother's and child's hair. The levels found were 0.54 +/- 0.34 microgram/g for mother's hair and 0.77 +/- 0.25 microgram/g for child's hair.     

The use of supercritical fluid extraction for the determination of amphetamines in hair

A laboratory study interested in the analysis of human hair for drugs-of-abuse was conducted to determine if drugs could be detected and quantified from hair. Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) techniques followed by GC-MS analysis were applied to extract amphetamines from hair. The group of amphetamines included methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), methylenedioxymetamphetamine (MDMA), methylenedioxyethylamphetamine (MDEA) and internal standard mephentermine (MP). To validate information on amphetamine use in hair, powdered hair samples free from drugs were collected and soaked in a known amphetamine standard solution. Authentic fortified case hair samples taken from known drug users known to have consumed amphetamines were also analyzed for amphetamine. Results from this study show that amphetamine use can be detected in spiked and authentic fortified human hair using SFE techniques for qualitative and quantitative reproducible results.     

A biomechanical study of the human vertebral artery with implications for fatal arterial injury

We studied the biomechanical behaviour of ring and strip specimens from along the length of 18 vertebral arteries taken from 16 subjects aged 28-90 years, in order to consider some of the factors which may play a role in vertebral artery rupture. The method was chosen to allow a comparison between circumferential distension (ring samples) and longitudinal extension, (strip samples). The samples were extended between the jaws of a tensile testing apparatus until the specimen broke and a number of biomechanical parameters were derived. These were the percentage extension to break, the tensile strength, Young's modulus and the peak load. There were a number of important findings. The vertebral artery was shown to be susceptible to longitudinal stretching with a number of strip samples breaking when extended by as little as 16-20%. The tensile strength and load at peak of the strip specimens were correspondingly lower than for the ring samples. Marked intersubject variations were shown for all these parameters and prominent changes in behaviour occurred along the vertebral artery. This study indicates that the artery may be susceptible to head and neck movements which cause the vessel to stretch, and intersubject variations in behaviour may be one important explanation for the marked differences in outcome which appear to exist in subjects who suffer broadly similar head and neck insults.     

Beyond traditional paternity and identification cases. Selecting the most probable pedigree

The paper extends on the traditional methodology used to quantify DNA evidence in paternity or identification cases. By extending we imply that there are more than two alternatives to choose between. In a standard paternity case the two competing explanations H(1): "John Doe is the father of the child and H(2): "A random man is the father of the child, are typically considered. A paternity index of 100000 implies that the data is 100000 more likely assuming hypothesis H(1) rather than H(2). If H(2) is replaced by "A brother of John Doe is the father", the LR may change dramatically. The main topic of this paper is to determine the most probable pedigree given a certain set of data including DNA profiles. In the previous example this corresponds to determining the most likely relation between John Doe and the child. Based on DNA obtained from victims of a fire, bodies found in an ancient grave or from individuals seeking to confirm their anticipated family relations, we would like to determine the most probable pedigree. The approach we present provides the possibility to combine non-DNA evidence, say age of individuals, and DNA profiles. The program familias, obtainable as shareware from http://www.nr.no/familias, delivers the probabilities for the various family constellations. More precisely, the information (if any) prior to DNA is combined with the DNA-profiles in a Bayesian manner to deliver the posterior probabilities. We exemplify using the well published Romanov data where the accepted solution emerges among 4536 possibilities considered. Various other applications based on forensic case work are discussed. In addition we have simulated data to resemble an incest case. Since the true family relation is known in this case, we may evaluate the method.