EXPLAINING RATE CHANGES IN DELINQUENT ARREST TRANSITIONS USING EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS*

Many aspects of the criminal career are amenable to empirical analysis, and in recent years we have witnessed a proliferation of research in the areas of individual offense frequency, arrest frequency, career length, and crime-switching patterns. This research analyzes the effects of explanatory variables on the rate at which officially detected juvenile offenders move from one crime type to another, and the statistical techniques used take advantage of the longitudinal nature of the data. An arrest is considered an event that occurs at a given point in time, and event history analysis is used to model the transition rate from one crime type to another as a function of offense history and offender characteristics. This transition rate encompasses two aspects of the criminal career process: the rate at which arrests take place and the likelihood of transition from arrest to arrest.     

Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections

Theories involving coattails, surge and decline, presidential popularity, and the economy ascribe little importance to presidential efforts to influence congressional elections. Since such efforts do occur, we ask: What happens when a president campaigns for fellow partisans? We examined President George W. Bush's decisions to campaign for certain House candidates in 2002, and we assessed the effect of his visits on Republicans' electoral successes. Both the competitiveness of a race and the president's electoral self‐interest increased the likelihood of a visit on behalf of a candidate. Neither party loyalty nor presidential support in Congress had an effect. We conclude that presidential campaign visits significantly enhance candidates' electoral prospects.     

Coalition Governments, Divided Governments, and Electoral Theory

For decades theorizing about party competition in two-party and multiparty democracies has proceeded along separate tracks. The former has assumed an idealized world in which one party wins full control of a system's governing institutions in a first-past-the-post election, while the latter posits a world in which elections conducted under a system of proportional representation split control of the parliament among the parties. The contemporary American experience with divided government suggests that the two lines of theorizing greatly exaggerate the differences between two-party and multi-party systems. Where a two-party system has a separation of powers based on independent elections, coalition governments involving shared control of the separate institutions may result. Under such conditions rational voting may be just as demanding in two-party systems as in multi-party systems, and the policy outputs of two-party systems may be no more coherent than the outputs of multi-party systems, contrary to traditional arguments.     

Health Status of Incarcerated Adolescents: Implications for Juvenile Justice Decision Making

Adolescents arriving in detention often bring with them significant medical, dental, and psychological problems. These issues have important implications for courts that must decide the best disposition for offending youths. Appropriate treatment benefits the individual by enhancing his/her well‐being and improving his/her chances of successful rehabilitation. Society also benefits by avoiding the higher cost of caring for neglected conditions later in life. A comprehensive health care program for detention facilities involves establishing standardized procedures that address both common adolescent problems plus those more peculiar to detainees. Health care professionals working in a correctional setting have unique duties such as clearing youths for boot camp, monitoring injuries, dealing with resistant patients, monitoring for safe activities, and planning aftercare for youths who may face impediments to accessing care such as poor motivation and poverty. Research concerning issues specific to the needs of incarcerated youths remains infrequent and should be undertaken by health care providers. This article provides an overview of medical issues confronting juvenile offenders that should be considered when a juvenile becomes involved in the juvenile justice system.     

The Next 40 Years Will Be the Most Important in History

The solidarity of the G‐20 nations in staving off global financial crisis two years ago has deteriorated into a brawl over currency valuations, trade imbalances and sovereign debt, reflecting the great powershift from the West to the East and the emerging economies. In this section, we invited comments from historians, a former head of state who successfully navigated the Asian financial crisis and a prominent Chinese dissident.     

SOCIAL TIES AND CRIME: IS THE RELATIONSHIP GENDERED?*

A fundamental concept in the systemic model of social disorganization theory has been the social ties among neighbors. Theoretically, social ties among neighbors provide the foundation from which the potential for informal social control can develop. Recent research, however, has shown that not all social ties are equally effective in producing informal social control and decreasing crime rates. Warner and Rountree (1997) have shown that the neighborhood context in which ties occur is related to their crime-fighting effectiveness, and Bellair (1997) has shown that frequent ties are not necessarily the most effective ties. Further examination of the crime-control effectiveness of specific patterns and placements of social ties, therefore, seems a fruitful path to pursue. For example, no research to date has examined potential demographic differences in the effectiveness of ties. This study begins exploration in this area by examining the extent to which the effectiveness of ties in decreasing crime is related to the gendered nature and context of those ties. Using data from 100 Seattle neighborhoods, we find that although women and men display similar levels of local social ties, the effects of these gender-specific ties on crime are different. In particular, female social ties are more effective in controlling crime, particularly in the community-level gendered context of few female-headed households.     

Learning more from social experiments: evolving analytic approaches

Book Review

Learning more from social experiments: evolving analytic approaches     

Inequality, Opportunity, and Crime Rates in Central Cities

In a recent paper, Cohen and Felson argue that changes in our routine activities since World War 11 have contributed to the increase in predatory crime by creating additional opportunities for it. In particular, they found that a measure of the dispersal of activities away from the home-the household activity ratio-has had a significant effect on crime rate trends since 1947. The aim of the present research is twofold: (1) to determine if this relationship occurs across space as well as over time, and (2) to see i f economic inequality may be an intervening variable between the household activity ratio and the crime rate. The sample consists of 93 nonsouthern cities of over 50,000 population in 1960. Data are drawn from the 1970 Census und the U n i f m Crime Reports. Using path analysis, it is determined that the effects of the household activity ratio cm rates of predatory crime are entirely indirect, and are transmitted by income inequality.