The Political Constraints on Economic Policy in Post-1982 Mexico: The Case of Pemex

Abstract Fourteen years of market-oriented reform in Mexico have led to many economic changes. However during 1982–1994 there was relatively little change in the hydrocarbon sector. This article seeks to explain the slowness of reform essentially in political terms. While political constraints on reforming the hydrocarbons sector were genuine, it is also clear that the De la Madrid and Salinas governments chose to avoid controversial decisions in this sector as far as possible. Risk aversion seems, at least in this context, to have been a characteristic of Mexican authoritarianism during 1982–1994. Because of the inherent importance of the oil and gas sector to the Mexican economy, the slow growth of production since 1982 (largely resulting from extreme policy caution) provides a part of the explanation for the slow growth of the Mexican economy as a whole.     

The Parliamentary Party

The Conservative parliamentary party will fulfill three important functions for any incoming Conservative government: it will be the focus of attention for the national media; it will be the bulk vote that will deliver its legislative programme; it will form the talent pool from which members of any incoming government will be recruited. A majority Conservative government could see a majority of its MPs newly elected, with more Conservative women and ethnic minority MPs than ever before (although there will be little change in the socio-economic background of their MPs). These new MPs will present problems in terms of party management, although they will be less likely to rebel than longer-serving MPs. There are also relatively few signs of discontent among incumbent Conservative MPs (the article identifies the most rebellious Conservative MPs). Any new Conservative government will also have to deal with a reformed House of Lords, in which it will no longer have a majority.     

Business Management Reform in the Department of Defense in Anticipation of Declining Budgets

Business management reform efforts have been part of the U.S. Defense Department agenda for decades. Current reform efforts have explicitly established the goal of generating, harvesting, and reinvesting savings from business management reform to buy more capital items; that is, they have focused on a measurable reallocation from operating and support costs to investment within a given budget top line. Recent increases in the defense top line, largely related to the war on terrorism, are not likely to persist; in addition, an examination of the factors affecting the top line suggests that a decline in the near term is likely. An examination of current and past defense management reforms suggests that efficiency‐seeking business management reforms are not likely to generate sufficient resources to cover a budget decline. Instead, management reform should be sustained for reasons of stewardship and accountability.     

DOES GUN PREVALENCE AFFECT TEEN GUN CARRYING AFTER ALL?*

Previous research suggests that American adolescents usually have ready access to guns, and that the extent of misuse of guns by adolescents is not much affected by local gun prevalence or regulation. This “futility” claim is based on one interpretation of survey data from several cities, but has not been tested directly. Here we do so using microdata from a nationally representative survey, the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males. Using the restricted geo‐coded version of these data, and conditioning on an extensive set of covariates, we find (among other results) that the likelihood of gun carrying increases markedly with the prevalence of gun ownership in the given community. We also analyze the propensity to carry other types of weapons, finding that it is unrelated to the local prevalence of gun ownership. The prevalence of youths carrying both guns and other weapons is positively related to the local rate of youth violence (as measured by the robbery rate), confirmatory evidence that weapons carrying by youths is motivated in part by self‐protection.     

Blairite Modernisation and Countryside Policy

When New Labour came to power in 1997, the party's manifesto had little to say about rural policy, beyond a proposal to allow a free vote to ban hunting with dogs and a commitment to establish a right to roam—essentially 'old Labour' and symbolic issues. However, in its early years the Blair government became drawn more heavily into rural policy reform and increasingly came to see rural issues as a territory on which its grand project of national renewal and modernisation could be played out. This article reviews the rise and fall of rural policy under New Labour, and charts how the aftermath of the 2001 foot and mouth disease crisis eventually saw rural issues marginalised within government. It shows how the Blair governments' strange and unexpected excursion into reforming rural and agricultural policy provides a case study of the rise and fall of modernisation more generally.     

Cycles of the fourth kind: A reply to Mohler's cycles of values

Abstract. Mohler (1987) claims that German culture does not display thematic cycles like those found by Namenwirth and Weber (1987) in America and Great Britain. We argue that Mohler's claim is not supported by the emperical evidence he presents. We also find his claim to be flawed conceptually and theoretically.     

Screening the Mental Health Needs of Youths in Juvenile Detention

There is an increasing number of juveniles coming into the justice system with a variety of mental health and substance abuse concerns. While the actual number of youths with mental health disorders in the juvenile justice system has been difficult to determine, it is estimated to be substantially higher than it is for youths in the general population. In addition, researchers have estimated that a high number of these juveniles experience co‐morbid mental health disorders. The purpose of this study was to examine the number of youths who present symptoms of a mental health disorder at intake into a juvenile detention center in the Midwest. Two hundred‐four youths were assessed with the Massachusetts Youth Screening Instrument‐Second Version (MAYSI‐2; Grisso & Barnum, 2000), a mental health screening instrument. At least 68% of the youths identified symptoms of a mental health disorder at intake. Given the significant number of youths who identified symptoms of a mental health disorder at intake into detention, the need to provide mental health services for juvenile detainees should not be ignored.     

Prospects and Progress in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland

Mr. Mason, who is Director of the Institute of Race Relations,London, gave the address that follows at a joint meeting ofthe Royal African Society and Royal Commonwealth Society onOctober 5, 1961. Sir Gilbert Rennie G.B.E, K.C.M.G., M.C., formerHigh Commissioner for the Federation in London, took the chair.     

THE 1976 ELECTION AND THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM

Abstract The elections, remembered as the first in which an incumbent President was defeated since 1932, show other characteristics inconsistent with usual interpretations. The Democratic Party's selection procedure managed to produce a moderate around whom the party could unite for the first time since 1964 while the Republicans experienced a damaging fight which the more extreme candidate almost won. Analysis of the results refutes many common conclusions. The popular vote was not as close as in other postwar elections; regional variations less pronounced and party more important in the campaign than had been supposed. The Republicans showed surprisingly strongly in the Presidential election, but did disastrously again in others. No satisfactory theory explains the discrepancy. Republicans still challenge strongly for the Presidency but consistently fail elsewhere.