ASSOCIATIONS OF FATHERS' HISTORY OF INCARCERATION WITH SONS' DELINQUENCY AND ARREST AMONG BLACK,WHITE, AND HISPANIC MALES IN THE UNITED STATES*

Nearly 13 percent of young adult men report that their biological father has served time in jail or prison; yet surprisingly little research has examined how a father's incarceration is associated with delinquency and arrest in the contemporary United States. Using a national panel of Black, White, and Hispanic males, this study examines whether experiencing paternal incarceration is associated with increased delinquency in adolescence and young adulthood. We find a positive association with paternal incarceration that is robust to controls for several structural, familial, and adolescent characteristics. Relative to males not experiencing a father's incarceration, our results show that those experiencing a father's incarceration have an increased propensity for delinquency that persists into young adulthood. Using a national probability sample, we also find that a father's incarceration is highly and significantly associated with an increased risk of incurring an adult arrest before 25 years of age. These observed associations are similar across groups of Black, White, and Hispanic males. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest benefits from public policies that focus on male youth “at risk” as a result of having an incarcerated father.     

AN APPROACH TO THE POLITICAL SOCIOLOGY OF THE WELSH NATIONALIST MOVEMENT

Abstract The character and ideology of the Welsh nationalist movement have changed drastically since the founding of an independent party in 1925. This paper seeks to utilize a developmental typology in analyzing data obtained from interviews with nationalist activists in examining such changes. In this way, it is possible to understand how Welsh language militants, 'respectable' cultural nationalists, middle-of-the road party workers from rural Wales, and south Wales radicals coexist and cooperate within the fabric of organized nationalism. The investigation of the social dynamics of the movement renders comprehensible both the causes of internal organizational strength and the electoral difficulties facing Plaid Cymru.     

THE PREVENTIVE EFFECTS OF THE PERCEIVED RISK OF ARREST: TESTING AN EXPANDED CONCEPTION OF DETERRENCE

In a reexamination of the perceptual deterrence literature. Williams and Hawkins (1986) have suggested that previous tests of the deterrence doctrine have been guided by too narrow a conception of the deterrence process. In essence, they argue that the preventive mechanisms are triggered by formal sanctions should be included in the accounting of the deterrent effect of formal sanctions. In this paper, we test this expanded conception of deterrence. We find little evidence to support the argument of Williams and Hawkins. Alternative interpretations of the results and future directions for research are discussed.     

Juvenile Mental Health Court: Rationale and Protocols

Under the sponsorship of the judiciary, the Santa Clara County, California Juvenile Court, in partnership with the Juvenile Mental Health Department and a technical assistance agency (SOLOMON), has pioneered a Juvenile Mental Health Court for seriously mentally ill children who have become involved in the criminal justice system. The judiciary, probation department, district attorney, public defender, county counsel, and service providers have collectively embarked upon the implementation of a modern approach to mental health diagnosis, triage, and treatment services for youth and families who come in contact with the justice system as a result of the combination of serious mental illness and juvenile delinquency. This article presents the court's rationale and protocols.     

New Labour Legacy: Comparing the Labour Governments of Blair and Brown to Labour Governments since 1945

The election of the Conservative–Liberal coalition in May 2010 provides the opportunity to start to map out the record of the Labour governments between 1997 and 2010. This paper deals with the specific question how the Brown/Blair governments performed on public expenditures when compared to the records of UK Labour governments since 1945. Did the public expenditure record of the 1997 represent a departure from that of previous Labour governments? This is important to ascertain since there are strongly held beliefs that New Labour was not committed to Labour's historic commitments of income redistribution and universal benefits. The analysis that follows is constructed around five major public expenditure programmes that reflect Labour's priorities. These include total expenditure, expenditure on health, education, housing and social security.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

ASSESSMENTS OF RISK AND BEHAVIORAL EXPERIENCE: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF CHANGE

This study examines the relationship between assessments of the risk of punishment and self-reported involvement in three illegal behaviors in a sample of college-aged respondents. It is found that those respondents who had not yet committed a particular offense were more likely to perceive a greater certainty of punishment than those with experience in committing the offense. For two of three offenses the effect of becoming involved in offending had a more substantial impact on the perceptions of those respondents with both experience in offending and high perceived certainty of punishment than on those who had experience and less pessimistic estimates of risk Finally, a multivariate analysis of the relationship between behavioral and perceptual change reveals that each variable affects the other even when other sources of change are controlled. The importance of the findings for the deterrence doctrine are discussed.