The emerging political economy of austerity in Britain

This paper uses data from the British Election Study's Continuous Monitoring Surveys to investigate reactions of the British public to the economic crisis and the austerity policies the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government has adopted to deal with it. Multivariate models informed by competing valence and positional theories of electoral choice are employed to study the impact of these reactions on support for the Conservative Party and Prime Minister David Cameron and evaluations of the Conservatives' ability to handle important issues. Analyses indicate that there is widespread and growing pessimism about the prospects of resolving the economic crisis in the near future. Since the crisis began in 2008, the dynamics of these bearish attitudes have been closely linked to rising unemployment rates. Differing positions regarding the Coalition's austerity policies exert sizable effects on party support, but these attitudes have not negated the force of valence politics considerations such as party leader images, partisan attachments and global assessments of party performance.     

Poaching, habitat loss and the decline of neotropical parrots: a comparative spatial analysis

Objective

To evaluate the relative contributions of poaching and habitat loss to the endangerment of neotropical parrots

Method

A matched case-control design was employed. Using NatureServe digitized range maps for birds in the Americas, 145 neotropical parrot species were individually matched with 145 control species, from similar ranges and, by proxy, from similar habitats. The control species were taxonomically similar, mid-sized, forest-dwelling birds that, like parrots, use holes and cavities for breeding and roosting. The conservation status of the parrots and control birds was established through the IUCN Red List of endangered species.

Results

Nearly five times as many parrot species (59 out of 145) as non-parrots (13 out of 145) are threatened with extinction to some degree. In 54 out of 65 pairs with unequal conservation status, the parrot species is at greater risk of extinction.

Conclusions

Subject to limitations of the matching employed and the use of range data as a proxy for habitat, it is concluded that poaching is a strong threat to the conservation of neotropical parrots—perhaps stronger than habitat loss. Criminologists therefore have an important part to play in conservation of parrots, and perhaps also in conservation of other endangered species, through identification and implementation of measures to control poaching.     

Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain.     

The regulation of civilian drones' impacts on behavioural privacy

Surveillance technologies have burgeoned during the last several decades. To surveillance's promises and threats, drones add a new dimension, both figuratively and literally. An assessment of the impacts of drones on behavioural privacy identifies a set of specific threats that are created or exacerbated. Natural controls, organisational and industry self-regulation, co-regulation and formal laws are reviewed, both general and specific to various forms of surveillance. Serious shortfalls in the regulatory framework are identified. Remedies are suggested, together with means whereby they may come into being.     

Yes we can! Valence politics and electoral choice in America, 2008

The claim that the 2008 presidential election was a transformative one is fast becoming part of the conventional wisdom of American politics. Despite the election’s undoubted significance, this paper argues that factors affecting voting decisions were strikingly similar to those operating in many previous presidential elections. Using data from the CCAP six-wave national election survey, we demonstrate that a valence politics model provides a powerful, parsimonious explanation of the ballot decisions Americans made in 2008. As is typical in presidential elections, candidate images had major effects on electoral choice. Controlling for several other relevant factors, racial attitudes were strongly associated with how voters reacted to the candidates. Other models of electoral choice, such as a Downsian issue-proximity model, are also relevant, but their explanatory power is considerably less than that provided by the valence politics model.