The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the ‘personalist’ view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities – in particular the so-called scoring rules – provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.     

A Very Unusual Accidental Mechanical Asphyxia of Choking with a Whole Solea Solea

The case here reported involves a schizophrenic 19‐year‐old girl under treatment with clotiapine, which was well tolerated except for a moderate dry mouth. The woman ingested a whole sole (Solea solea), which caused a very rapid death by choking. A complete autopsy was performed 24 h later, as well as histological and toxicological analysis. At autopsy, the sole was wedged in the esophagus causing a choking ab extrinseco. The fish had a length of 18 cm and a maximum width of 6 cm, weighing 188.7 g. Toxicological analysis detected 0.57 mg/L of clotiapine in blood, which falls within the therapeutic range. The peculiarity of this case is represented by two factors: one is the choking by fish and the second was the adverse affect caused by clotiapine, which induced a condition of dry mouth making the act of swallowing even more difficult, thereby contributing to a very rapid mechanical asphyxia and the death of the young woman.     

Equal prior probabilities: can one do any better?

This paper discusses recommendations concerning the use of prior probabilities that underlie recent, but in no way novel, proposals of presenting scientific evidence in terms of posterior probabilities, in the context sometimes referred to as the 'full Bayes' approach'. A chief issue of this procedure is a proposal that--given the unavailability of case-specific circumstantial information--scientists should consider the prior probabilities of the propositions under which scientific evidence is evaluated as equal. The discussion presented here draws the reader's attention to the fact that the philosophical foundations of such a recommendation (in particular, attempted justifications through the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME)) are far more controversial than what is actually admitted by the advocates for their use in the theory and practice of forensic science. Invoking only basic assumptions and the mathematical rules of probability calculus, the authors of this paper propose an argument that shows that there can be other more feasible and defensible strategies for eliciting reasonable prior probabilities. It is solely demanded that the reasoner is willing to make up his mind seriously on certain standard issues of fairly general criminal cases, such as evidential relevance or the probability of a suspect's guilt. However, because these issues intimately pertain to the responsibility of the trier of the fact, it is argued here that scientists' attempts to define appropriate prior probabilities should continue to be considered as untenable for the need.     

Assessment of the Capacity to Express Informed Consent for Organ Donation in Patients with Schizophrenia

Abstract: In Italy, the “silent‐consent” principle of donor’s willingness regulates organ donation for postmortem transplantation, but civil incompetence excludes it. We investigated decisional capacity for organ donation for transplantation of 30 controls and 30 nonincompetent patients with schizophrenia as related to clinical symptoms, cognition, and functioning. Assessments were carried out through the Competence for Donation Assessment Scale (CDAS), Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS), Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms, Life Skills Profile (LSP), Raven’s Colored Progressive Matrices (RCPM), Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Rey RI, Rey RD, and Visual Search. Patients and controls differed on the CDAS Understanding and Choice Expression areas. Patients showed significant inverse bivariate correlations between CDAS Understanding and scores on total BPRS, LSP self‐care scale, and RCPM cognitive test. Our results show that decisional capacity for participating in research does not predict decisional capacity for postmortem organ donation in patients with schizophrenic or schizoaffective psychosis; hence, before judging consent for donation, patients must be provided with enhanced information to better understand this delicate issue.     

Histopathological findings in 851 autopsies of drug addicts, with toxicologic and virologic correlations

This investigation was carried out on 851 consecutive judicial autopsies of drug addicts who died mostly of heroin overdose from 1977 to 1996. Research of anti-HIV/HBV/HCV antibodies was performed, and histologic sections were retrospectively reviewed. More than 65% were HBV/HCV-positive and about 17% HIV-positive; females were HIV-positive more often than males. Intracranial microhemorrhages were frequently found; cerebral infectious diseases were rare. Inflammatory heart lesions, myocardial fibrosis, and acute ischemia were common. Interstitial nephritis (found in about 8%) was more frequent in females, in older patients, and in those carrying HIV infection; glomerular sclerosis was detected in about 12%. Acute bronchitis and/or pneumonia was demonstrated in 12%, without significant association with HIV infection; pulmonary hemorrhages, foreign body granulomas, and food aspiration were also commonly seen; hyperplasia of pulmonary perivascular lymphatic tissue was rather characteristic. Liver was carrying steatosis in 66.3% and/or hepatitis in 64.5%; acute hepatitis was more frequent in females, chronic hepatitis in older subjects and in those proven positive for hepatotropic viruses; cirrhosis occurred more often in older patients, in those carrying virus infection, and in consumers of nonnarcotics drugs such as ethanol. No pathologic finding was clearly related to drug abuse; therefore, during autopsy, drug addiction can be suspected, but anamnestic and circumstantial data are needed to lead pathologists to request toxicologic analysis to ascertain the cause of death. The present investigation emphasizes that, in addition to the risk of death by overdose, the high incidence of acute and chronic diseases could seriously undermine the health status of heroin and/or other drug consumers.