中苏(俄)关系的历史演进及其当前启示

从中苏到中俄,从同盟、对抗到伙伴,这三种关系模式如同历史本身的有机发展一样,彼此之间有着深厚的逻辑关联。一方面,同盟和对抗模式为伙伴模式提供了极为丰厚的历史遗产,对其产生了不可割舍的内在影响和制约。另一方面,伙伴模式在20世纪90年代后之所以能够得到全面、持续而又深入地构建,是与其对同盟和对抗模式所进行的辩证继承和扬弃分不开的。     

Toward a national youth employment policy: Mapping the route from problems to programs

The United States has not had a consistent, comprehensive youth employment policy. Program objectives are not clear and are often in conflict with the objectives of other programs aimed at the same target population. The primary needs at this juncture are a clearly specified policy objective and a method for identifying the ways in which potential interventions can help attain that objective.The authors argue that the genesis of public concern with youth employment problems lies in the general acceptance of greater equality of opportunity as a national goal. The appropriate objective of youth employment policy is conceptualized as the reduction of certain inequalities in economic opportunity that confront the young.Equality of economic opportunity is a long-run concept. The relations between actions at a point in time and opportunity over time are developed within a model of youth behavior. The analysis focuses on the notions of career paths, employment success, and economic oportunity.The Research reported here was supported by the Office of Economic Opportunity. The authors owe much to the deliberations and suggestions of: K. Arrow, A. Carlin, J. Coleman, A. Cook, Jr., R. Dorfman, G. Fishman, T. Glennan, Jr., D. Greenberg, P. Katsky, S. M. Lipset, L. Rapping, T. Schelling, E. Sheldon, R. Summers, T. Tomlinson, B. Williams, W. Williams, and A. Wohlstetter. Sole responsibility for any errors or omissions, of course, resides with the authors.     

Variability of the pattern of aging on the human skeleton: evidence from bone indicators and implications on age at death estimation

Age at death assessment of adult skeletons is one of the most difficult problems in forensic and physical anthropology. Two fundamental sources of error are described: the complex variability in the process of skeletal aging and methodological bias. Taking into account these limits, we developed a new scoring system for the auricular surface of the ilium and the pubic symphysis. In order to address a large variability, we examine reference samples from Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia. Data were processed using Bayesian prediction in order to classify specimens in age range categories. Results show that combining indicators do not perform better than the auricular surface used as a single indicator. Morphological changes with aging are variable between Asian, African, and European populations, confirming the necessity to use population-specific standards. Bayesian prediction produces reliable classification and is applicable for subjects over 50 years old, a real methodological improvement.     

Validation of a radiographic method to establish new fetal growth standards: radio-anatomical correlation

In forensic medicine, specialists might face difficulties when estimating age at death from fetal remains. Depending on the state of preservation, this age assessment is essentially based on the diaphyseal size of long bones. In a previous work, for the measurement of fetal femoral ossified shafts, we already established a simple and reliable method using a radiographic protocol. Since we previously stated that radiographic measurement values were closer to real anatomical size than ultrasonographic ones, in the present study we decided to check the importance of the difference between radiographic and anatomical measurements. Therefore, we dissected 30 pairs of fetal femurs and compared the difference between the two kinds of measurements (in percentages). This difference seemed to be slight (4.027%), but it was large enough to entail significant differences (p < 0.001). In order to provide a correction factor for radiographic measurements, we established a linear regression formula, which was tested on another sample of 30 pairs of dissected femurs. As a consequence of the good results, we improved the linear regression using a powerful statistical tool: the bootstrap. Finally, we obtained a simple equation that allowed us to figure out the real anatomical size with an R2 of 99% and a mean relative difference of 0.153% (with a standard error of 0.252 mm, and therefore a 95% confidence interval with limits of -0.35 and 0.657 mm). This difference did not entail any significant differences (p = 0.498), and therefore, we concluded that with the proposed correction, radiographic measurements can easily be used by forensic specialists in their daily tasks or to establish new growth standards in order to best fit their population of interest.     

Deaths involving buprenorphine: a compendium of French cases

Buprenorphine at high dosage became available in France in 1996, as a substitution treatment for heroin addicts. Since this date, numerous deaths were attributed to this drug. This paper reports two original series of 39 and 78 fatalities involving buprenorphine observed at the Institute of Legal Medicine of Strasbourg and at 13 other French forensic centers, respectively. The files were recorded from January 1996-May 2000. The first 20 fatalities that were previously published were excluded from this epidemiological study. From these 117 subjects, 96 were male (82%). Buprenorphine and its primary metabolite norbuprenophine were assayed in post-mortem blood by HPLC/MS (n=11 labs) or by GC/MS (n=3 labs). Blood levels for buprenorphine ranged from 0.5 to 51.0ng/ml (mean 10.2ng/ml) and 0.1 to 76ng/ml (mean 12.6ng/ml) in Strasbourg and the other centers, respectively. Blood levels for norbuprenorphine ranged from 0.2 to 47.1ng/ml (mean 8.2ng/ml) and <0.1 to 65ng/ml (mean 10.6ng/ml) in Strasbourg and the other centers, respectively. The mean values appear to be within the therapeutic range. Buprenorphine was identified in 24 of the 26 hair samples assayed in Strasbourg, at concentrations ranging from 10 to 1080pg/mg. Intravenous injection of crushed tablets, a concomitant intake of psychotropics (especially benzodiazepines and neuroleptics) and the high dosage of the buprenorphine formulation available in France appear as the major risk factors for such fatalities. In addition, two suicide-related deaths were also observed, with blood buprenorphine concentrations at 144 and 3276ng/ml.     

Community Influence on Adolescent Obesity: Race/Ethnic Differences

Using a sample of 20,000 adolescents (Add Health data), this study examined the influences of community poverty and race/ethnicity on adolescent obesity. Multilevel analyses revealed strong evidence for the unique influences of community poverty and race/ethnicity on adolescent obesity net of family characteristics. The prevalence of obesity is significantly higher in poor communities than in affluent communities; and it is higher among African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans than among Whites. The interaction between race/ethnicity and community poverty indicates that race/ethnicity moderates the influence of community poverty on the prevalence of obesity. Although the prevalence of obesity is higher among minorities than among Whites, the influence of community poverty is stronger for Whites than for minorities, suggesting that unlike Whites, most minority groups may not accrue benefits of structural community advantages. The state of being overweight as the outcome variable provided essentially the same findings. The practical implications are discussed.     

A Prospective Study of Extreme Weight Change Behaviors Among Adolescent Boys and Girls

This study examined changes in extreme weight change attitudes and behaviors (exercise dependence, food supplements, drive for thinness, bulimia) among adolescent boys and girls over a 16 month period. It also investigated the impact of body mass index, puberty, body image, depression and positive affect on these attitudes and behaviors 16 months later. The participants were 847 young adolescents (411 boys, 436 girls). Participants completed questionnaires evaluating the above variables on three occasions, eight months apart. Girls obtained higher scores on exercise dependence, drive for thinness and bulimia. Changes in depression and body image importance were the strongest predictors of changes in these extreme attitudes and behaviors among boys; changes in depression, body dissatisfaction and body image importance were the strongest predictors for girls. The need for gender specific educational and intervention programs for adolescents are discussed.Marita McCabe PhD, Professor in Psychology in the School of Psychology, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia. She has completed her PhD in 1981 on adolescent development, and has been completing research on various aspects of adolescent adjustment for 30 years. To whom correspondence should be addressed at 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia;Senior Lecturer in the School of Psychology, Deakin University, Melbourne Australia. She completed her PhD in 1990 on Childrens Language Development. In the last 10 years she has been researching body image concerns in adolescents and children     

Use of drugs of abuse in less than 30-year-old drivers killed in a road crash in France: A spectacular increase for cannabis, cocaine and amphetamines

A collaborative study was conducted in France in order to determine the prevalence of cannabinoids, opiates, cocaine metabolites and amphetamines in blood samples from drivers killed in road accidents in 2003 and 2004 and to compare these values with those of a previous study performed during the period 2000–2001 involving 900 drivers. Blood samples were provided from 2003 under 30-year-old drivers, killed in a traffic accident. Drugs of abuse were determined by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry using the same analytical procedures in all the 12 laboratories.The most frequently observed compounds were by far cannabinoids, that tested positive in 39.6% of the total number of samples. Δ⁹ tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the most active of the principle constituents in marijuana (cannabis sativa), was detected in the blood of 28.9% drivers and was the single drug of abuse in 80.2% of the positive cases. It was associated with amphetamines in 7.4% and with opiates and cocaine in 1.9 and 4.8%, respectively. Amphetamines were present in 3.1% of the total number of samples, cocaine metabolites in 3.0% and opiates in 3.5%.When comparing these results with those of a previous study performed 3 years before, a significant increase is observed for THC (28.9% versus 16.9%), cocaine metabolites (3.0% versus 0.2%) and amphetamines (3.1% versus 1.4%).This study demonstrates the critical necessity of implementing in France as soon as possible systematical roadside testing for drugs of abuse.     

Issue Competence and its Influence on Voting Behavior in the Swiss 2015 Elections

The Liberal Radical party and – even more so – the Swiss People's party are the two winners of the Swiss 2015 election. In this contribution, we evaluate whether and to what extent issue ownership voting may help to account for the electoral success of these two parties. To that end, we distinguish the two dimensions – the associative and the competence dimension – of the concept and we rely on data from the on‐line, four‐wave panel survey carried out in the context of the Swiss election studies. Our results highlight the stability of issue ownership perceptions during the course of the campaign on the aggregate level, but they also show the substantial importance of issue ownership voting, on the individual level. More specifically, in line with earlier studies we find that competence issue ownership has a direct impact on the vote choice, whereas the impact of associative issue ownership is far more limited. For both parties under study, being seen as the most competent party on two important issues (migration and the economy) significantly contributes to the explanation of the vote choice.