Regulators and Redskins

We examine the correlation between federal government activity and performance of the capital’s National Football League team, the Washington Redskins. We find a positive, non-spurious, and robust correlation between the Redskins’ winning percentage and bureaucratic output, measured by pages published in the Federal Register. Because the Redskins’ performance is prototypically exogenous, we give this result a causal interpretation and provide a plausible, causal mechanism: bureaucrats must make “logrolling” deals to expand their regulatory power, and a winning football team offers a shared source of optimism to lubricate such negotiations. We do not find the same correlation when examining congressional activity.     

Deliberation in large juries with diverse preferences

This paper considers a game in which imperfectly informed jurors who differ in their thresholds of reasonable doubt must decide whether to convict or acquit a defendant. Jurors deliberate prior to voting on the fate of the defendant, and the defendant is convicted only if all jurors vote to convict. Although it has been established that full information revelation is impossible when jurors have sufficiently heterogeneous preferences, this paper demonstrates that if each juror shares preferences with a small fraction of the other jurors, it is possible to obtain enough information revelation so that the correct decision is made with probability arbitrarily close to one in large juries.     

Policy and Organizational Change in the Federal Aviation Administration: The Ontogenesis of a High‐Reliability Organization

Although the high‐reliability organization (HRO) literature identifies several attributes that differentiate HROs from other types of organizations, these studies do not explain how an HRO comes into being, nor do they provide a means to gauge or measure the extent to which an organization exhibits the specified features. This article reports the results of a 97‐year longitudinal case study tracking the emergence and continuation of HRO characteristics in the Federal Aviation Administration’s air traffic control operations to answer the following questions: how do HRO functions emerge in public organizations, and do policy changes lead administrative changes, or is there little relation between policy and organizational change? The analysis shows that (1) HRO characteristics emerged incrementally over an extremely long period of time, and (2) policy changes preceded organizational changes early in the process of HRO development, but the relationship of policy change to organizational change decreased in later stages.     

The causal relationship between gang joining and violent victimization: A critical review and directions for future research

Purpose

This article provides a critical review of the state of research on the gang membership-violent victimization relationship.

Methods

This study examines a comprehensive list of published quantitative studies that have assessed the relationship between gang membership and violent victimization.

Results

By examining strengths and weaknesses of the design features of various studies, this article identifies theoretical, conceptual, methodological, and statistical issues that should be considered when interpreting the causal effect of gang membership on violent victimization. Some of the methodological and design issues discussed include, but are not limited to, consequences of failing to establish temporal order, failure to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine treatment effects, use of bootstrapping methods with propensity score analysis, measurement of violent victimization, and corrections for dependence in matched samples of gang and non-gang members.

Conclusion

Suggestions for future research are provided that will help advance the empirical study of the gang membership-violent victimization nexus.     

Not by accident: An analytical approach to traffic crash harm reduction

Purpose

This study examines whether a problem-oriented approach used by police in Cincinnati, Ohio called the Crash Analysis Reduction Strategy (CARS) corresponded with a change in the number of traffic crashes that resulted in injuries after implementation onset. Under the CARS model, police developed tactics that focused on targeting high-risk driving behaviors, impaired drivers, and crash hotspot locations within the city.

Methods

Using a two-phase strategy we first assess local impact by examining injury-related traffic crash patterns at targeted locations. Second, we examine whether traffic crashes that resulted in injuries in Cincinnati significantly diverged relative to similar outcomes across a number of comparison sites.

Results

Difference-in-difference negative binomial regression analyses indicates that traffic crashes were significantly lower in Cincinnati - down roughly 5.7% to 10.3% in the post-intervention period - when contrasted with comparison sites.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that comprehensive problem solving approaches can significantly reduce the risk of life changing events such as automobile crashes that result in injuries beyond traditional policing efforts that explicitly focus on crime and violence.     

Pornographic exposure over the life course and the severity of sexual offenses: Imitation and cathartic effects

Purpose

Extant scholarship has examined pornography's putative link to the commission of sex crime. Yet, virtually no research speaks to whether an offender's exposure to pornography during many different stages of life elevates the violence of a sex offense. The current study addresses this gap.

Methods

Using retrospective longitudinal data, we systematically investigate the effect of offender pornography exposure during adolescence, adulthood, and immediately prior to the offense on the level of physical injury as well as the extent of humiliation experienced by sex crime victims.

Results

Findings indicate that adolescent exposure was a significant predictor of the elevation of violence—it increased the extent of victim humiliation. Results also suggest a tempering, or cathartic effect of pornography—using pornography just prior to the offense was correlated with reduced victim physical injury. No effects, however, were observed for adult pornography exposure.

Conclusion

Pornography use may differentially influence offenders’ propensity to harm or degrade victims over the life course.     

Racial differences in speeding patterns: Exploring the differential offending hypothesis

Purpose

Disproportionate minority contact during traffic stops has been a consistent source of commentary and study in recent years. While various theoretical perspectives have been employed to explain these empirical findings, the differential offending hypotheses has been largely ignored as a viable alternative explanation. Building on existing empirical evidence regarding criminal offending patterns and driving patterns, we examined the veracity of this explanation using data from an observational study of urban driving behavior.

Methods

Data were collected using an observational methodology in an urban environment. These data were then used to estimate various regression models and test the differential offending hypothesis.

Results

Analytic models indicated that Black drivers speed more frequently and engage in more severe speeding compared to White drivers, net of controls.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that citizen risk for specific police behavior is partially attributable to differential behavior prior to the encounter. These results mirror the findings of previous research in other geographic locations using different methodologies; thus, contributing to the conclusion that understanding officer decision-making and behavior requires consideration of other factors beyond a citizen's race.     

The tussle with trust: Trust in the news media ecology

This article offers a conceptual exploration of the changing notion of trust and distrust in today's news media ecology. Central is the question whether the relationship between the traditional media actors, media organisations, journalists and news users, can be increasingly characterised by distrust. Do we really notice a decline in trust in the news media? And moreover, are these feelings of distrust grounded? In order to answer these questions, we look at the changing economic, technological and societal context and how this might explain the strained relationship between these actors. We find that to a large extent the goals of the media actors diverge or even conflict. Mutually bridging these goals is difficult as they boil down to ideological and normative choices. This requires us to reconsider our ways of looking at trust. Therefore, this article's central argument is that a trusted relationship between the media actors is unlikely to result from a definitive settlement between the actor's conflicting goals. Rather, maintaining a trusted relationship is likely to become a matter of constant renegotiation. For this renegotiation to succeed, transparency and integrity are key. We find inspiration in the recent work of Solove (2001), Nissenbaum (2004) and Mansell (2008, forthcoming) to take a different, more contextual approach towards the notion of trust. As regards the relationship between news organisations and users, we suggest these norms should be negotiated in a balanced and transparent way, giving users an equal say in the process. The relationship between journalists and news users should be guided by a mutual interest in truth telling, whereby users are not only merely seen as consumers, but also as potential contributors to news stories. Policy makers in turn should act as facilitators of such spaces of renegotiation.