A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

Buying in a Businesslike Fashion— And Paying More?

The government, particularly the Department of Defense (DoD), is undergoing yet another wave of acquisition reforms, which are intended to bring commercial buying practices to DoD's purchasing operations. This research shows that, prior to these reforms, the DoD's buying practices were superior to commercial practices in terms of prices paid for a large number of electronic and engine parts. The research compares DoD and purchasing of more than 676,000 identical items costing more than $60 million with commercial purchasing of the identical items. It finds that the DoD's purchasing superiority holds even when purchasing costs are considered. The DoD achieved these results because it was already using commercial practices commonly followed by large firms: aggregating purchases, using cost data, and negotiating aggressively in markets with few suppliers. Some of the recent reforms will undermine the DoD's ability to exploit these common commercial practices and will raise the government's costs.     

Families falling apart

Daniel Patrick Moynihan is the senior United States Senator from New York. He is the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Social Security and Family Policy of the Committee on Finance, and of the Subcommittee on Water Resources, Transportation, and Infrastructure of the Committee on Environment and Public Works. He is also a member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and the Senate Arms Control Observer Group. He is the author or editor of 14 books, including Beyond the Melting Pot(with Nathan Glazer) and his most recent work, Came the Revolution: Argument in the Reagan Era.     

How to win the political contest: A monopolist vs. environmentalists

This paper sheds light on the political economy of local energypolitics both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective.First, a case study of a small town in Southern Germany(Schönau) is presented, where environmentalists have won thepolitical contest against the regional energy monopolist and havefounded an energy supply firm themselves. The different stagesof the political process are explained and analysed. Second, apolitical economy model is developed, where environmentalists anda monopolistic utility firm confront each other both on thepolitical and on the energy market. In the lobbying equilibriumthe probability of the environmentalists' winning the gamedepends on the monopoly rent and the perceived social costs ofenergy production. It is shown that it is optimal for themonopolist to reduce his output below the monopolistic output.Finally, the winning strategy in the Schönau case is discussedin the light of the theoretical results of the paper.     

Reflections on the Iraq War: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Our foreign policy elites, the press, our elected representatives and the general public internalize “lessons” from each war, although the lessons may be wrong or misapplied. How we arrive at such consensus lessons is a mystery. It is too early to predict what lessons from Iraq will guide future U.S. decision-making. But on the situation as it now stands, it is possible to make some broad generalizations concerning what went right in Iraq and what went wrong.     

U.S. Engagement in East Asia: A Case for ‘Track Two’ Diplomacy

As the Bush presidency draws to a close, the foreign policy community is taking stock of contemporary U.S.-Northeast Asian relations, assessing the challenges and opportunities that are likely to confront the next administration. China presents both in abundance, as reflected in ongoing tensions and misunderstandings in the Sino-American bilateral relationship. This article assesses the prospects for Washington to improve its relations with China through the mechanism of “track two” diplomacy. First, we expand on the track two concept by examining its main components and functions with illustrative examples. We extend the existing conceptualization of track two beyond its traditional conflict resolution functions and develop an account of it as a mechanism for policy coordination and the reorientation of regional dynamics from conflict to cooperation. Second, we identify major areas of U.S. interest in Northeast Asia and show how track two diplomacy might usefully be pursued within these contexts. Our analysis culminates with recommendations on how the Unites States should apply track two strategies in its relations with China.     

How Will We Fight?

In considering the question “How will we fight?”, this article begins by examining the threats we face from conventional, insurgent, and hybrid enemies as well as terrorists and super-empowered individuals. It then outlines how America can fight effectively against each threat—as well as identifying the deficiencies in our current force structure that will hinder that response. The analysis argues that America needs a well-balanced, medium-weight joint force. It then provides recommendations for each of the services, as well as special operations forces, to achieve that goal. It concludes by describing what is needed to insure our force is capable of the rapid innovation in wartime required of successful nations.     

The Age Gap in the 2008 Presidential Election

The 2008 presidential election suggests a significant realignment among voters entering the electorate, with younger voters deviating considerably from older voters in their partisan preferences. Barack Obama won the vote of those under 30 years old by a 66% to 32% margin and first time voters favored him by an overwhelming margin of 69–30%. The fact that the age gap between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contest was also among the largest age gaps in American electoral history suggests that part of the age gap was undoubtedly due to the appeal of Obama with younger Americans. Part of the age gap, however, was also due to the unpopularity of the George W. Bush administration. The strong youth vote for Obama in 2008 was thus both pro-Obama and anti-Bush in nature. The huge age gap in 2008 suggests a split of the electorate along generational lines and the long-term consequences of the age gap appear to overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party. George W. Bush’s unpopular and divisive presidency helped to make the youngest generation of American voters increasingly Democratic in their vote preference. This suggests that if younger Americans follow other generations in keeping the same partisan voting patterns throughout their life, the Democrats are potentially poised to make considerable gains in future elections.