Deliberation in large juries with diverse preferences

This paper considers a game in which imperfectly informed jurors who differ in their thresholds of reasonable doubt must decide whether to convict or acquit a defendant. Jurors deliberate prior to voting on the fate of the defendant, and the defendant is convicted only if all jurors vote to convict. Although it has been established that full information revelation is impossible when jurors have sufficiently heterogeneous preferences, this paper demonstrates that if each juror shares preferences with a small fraction of the other jurors, it is possible to obtain enough information revelation so that the correct decision is made with probability arbitrarily close to one in large juries.     

Policy and Organizational Change in the Federal Aviation Administration: The Ontogenesis of a High‐Reliability Organization

Although the high‐reliability organization (HRO) literature identifies several attributes that differentiate HROs from other types of organizations, these studies do not explain how an HRO comes into being, nor do they provide a means to gauge or measure the extent to which an organization exhibits the specified features. This article reports the results of a 97‐year longitudinal case study tracking the emergence and continuation of HRO characteristics in the Federal Aviation Administration’s air traffic control operations to answer the following questions: how do HRO functions emerge in public organizations, and do policy changes lead administrative changes, or is there little relation between policy and organizational change? The analysis shows that (1) HRO characteristics emerged incrementally over an extremely long period of time, and (2) policy changes preceded organizational changes early in the process of HRO development, but the relationship of policy change to organizational change decreased in later stages.     

Trust in the clouds

The “cloud” is not new, and its roots go back to the original plans for computing from the 1950s. Now that computing is moving back to the original cloud-based models that were envisioned more than 60 years ago, with it, consumers are realizing the increases in security and safety that accompany the move to centralized servers. Yet the perception of “trust” in this context is often still formed by views that people have from their use of computers over the past two decades, which is localized in nature (“if I can see it, I can control it”). This view is based on perception more than fact. Our paper discusses different views of trust in other contexts (such as banking and travel) and concludes that users of cloud computing should recast their view of trust in a similar way that consumers of banking and travel have changed their perceptions of trust in the last 100 years.     

Medical data breaches: Notification delayed is notification denied

The EU and the United States have implemented data breach notification rules that cover the health sectors. Nevertheless, data breach incidents involving medical data continue to rise, especially in the US and the UK. The HITECH Act, Pub. L. 111-5 Title XIII is the first federal health breach notification law in the US to be characterized by less government intrusions, while the revised EU Privacy Directive, 2009/136/EC calls for tougher privacy protection for data held by electronic communication providers. While the EU law sets a global de facto standard, the law remains toothless without strong enforcement mechanisms.     

Organizational Readiness for Change in Correctional and Community Substance Abuse Programs

Significant needs exist for increased and better substance abuse treatment services in our nation's prisons. The TCU Organizational Readiness for Change (ORC) survey has been widely used in community-based treatment programs and evidence is accumulating for relationships between readiness for change and implementation of new clinical practices. Results of organizational surveys of correctional counselors from 12 programs in two states are compared with samples of community-based counselors. Correctional counselors perceived strong needs for new evidence-based practices but, compared to community counselors, reported fewer resources and less favorable organizational climates. These results have important implications for successfully implementing new practices.     

Undiagnosed, untreated acute promyelocytic leukemia presenting as a suspicious sudden death

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a subtype of acute myelogenous leukemia frequently associated with clotting abnormalities and severe hemorrhagic diathesis. The disease is associated with a high incidence of early fatal hemorrhage. We report the sudden death of a 40-year-old male without significant medical history in which foul play had been initially suspected. A thorough postmortem investigation performed on the decedent lead to the diagnosis of APL. Cause of death was a cerebellar hematoma. Underlying APL should be considered in the differential diagnosis when unexplained bleeding is encountered in a decedent. This case emphasizes the value of routinely collecting bone marrow during an autopsy to enable accurate testing and diagnosis.     

Yield and turnover of illicit indoor cannabis (Cannabis spp.) plantations in Belgium

In prosecution, Belgian judiciary currently uses outdated yield figures (28.1g per plant, sold at € 3/g at grower level) for fining illicit indoor cannabis plantations. Using state-of-the-art cultivation techniques, our growth experiments showed that yield is better expressed in g/m(2) cultivated surface area rather than in g per plant, and that yield varies significantly between different cannabis strains. It was found that the lower-bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval of the yield of an indoor cannabis plantation can be set at 575 g/m(2). Prices and pricing mechanisms were investigated using interviews with respondents selected through snowball sampling. Results reveal that (i) the Belgian cannabis market chain is highly complex; (ii) unit prices are predominantly determined by transaction sizes; but also (iii) a set of product- and socially-related price-fixing mechanisms have an equally important role. At grower level, respondents reported prices for 1 g of dry cannabis buds to range € 3.00-4.25.     

Creating a Commercia Civilization

正Business ties contribute to the development of a new type of Sino-U.S.great-power relationship By Patrick Mendis U.S.President Barack Obama’s vision for better relations with China is based on a time-tested commercial foundation.To enhance his Asia"pivot"strategy and the TransPacific Partnership(TPP)plan,then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton officially launched the"100,000 Strong"educational exchange initiative for American students to study in China.     

Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications

The real interest rate is a very important variable in the transmission of monetary policy. It features in vast majority of financial and macroeconomic models. Though the theoretical importance of the real interest rate has generated a sizable literature that examines its long-run properties, surprisingly, there does not exist any study that delves into this issue for South Africa. Given this, using quarterly data (1960:Q2-2010:Q4) for South Africa, our paper endeavors to analyze the long-run properties of the ex post real rate by using tests of unit root, cointegration, fractional integration and structural breaks. In addition, we also analyze whether monetary shocks contribute to fluctuations in the real interest rate based on test of structural breaks of the rate of inflation, as well as, Bayesian change point analysis. Based on the tests conducted, we conclude that the South African EPPR can be best viewed as a very persistent but ultimately mean-reverting process. Also, the persistence in the real interest rate can be tentatively considered as a monetary phenomenon.