The geopolitics of climate change: power transitions,conflict and the future of military activities

Climate change is emerging as one of the primary geopolitical challenges of the early twenty-first century, one that will likely involve military engagements and deployments in both traditional and non-traditional missions. Unlike mass casualty terrorism, climate change does not have a single galvanising event that can encourage collective mitigation efforts by both developed and developing states. International efforts to counter putative climate change causes have, thus far, been only marginally successful. Consequently, some of the more pernicious effects of climate change—extreme weather, heat waves, droughts and floods—will likely continue to manifest in the years and decades ahead. From a geopolitical perspective, climate change may influence the trajectory of rising or declining states in an increasingly multipolar world. It may also induce or exacerbate resource competition between states, particularly with regard to energy resources, water and food. Climate change may also exert a general weakening effect on lesser developed countries, thus necessitating increasingly intrusive and costly humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) missions, some of which may be conducted by military agencies. Overall, these trends suggest that climate change will continue to emerge as a significant factor that shapes and defines future military missions and deployments.     

Race-Based Peremptory Challenges: An Empirical Analysis of Litigation from the U.S. Court of Appeals, 2002–2006

This paper examines race-based peremptory challenges. Such challenges occur during the voir dire jury selection process. The process allows both the defense and the prosecution to strike jurors who they believe will not decide cases fairly. However, in the case of Batson v. Kentucky 476 U.S. 79 (1986), the Supreme Court ruled that race could not be used as a factor in eliminating prospective jurors. This paper examines federal litigation for five years in which it was alleged that race was used as a factor in removing a juror. An examination of the cases revealed that most of the cases involved sole male litigants who allege that there were multiple race-based peremptory challenges used in their cases. Moreover, most of the cases that led to the allegations involved violent offenses. Other case characteristics are noted, but of most significance was the finding that most appellants lost their cases. As such, the courts felt that most of the challenges were, in fact, race neutral. The implications of this research are discussed. This study was funded by an undergraduate research grant from Penn State University.     

The “Science of Science Policy”: reflections on the important questions and the challenges they present

Developing the “Science of Science Policy” will require data collection and analysis related to the processes of innovation and technological change, and the effects of government policy on those processes. There has been much work on these topics in the last three decades, but there remain difficult problems of finding proxies for subtle concepts, endogeneity, distinguishing private and social returns, untangling cumulative effects, measuring the impact of government programs in a true “but for” sense, and sorting out national and global effects. I offer observations on how to think about these issues. This paper was presented as the Keynote Address at the NSF Workshop on Advancing Measures of Innovation: Knowledge Flows, Business Metrics, and Measurement Strategies, Arlington, VA, June 2006.